Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS New York, NY

478 
WWUS51 KOKX 231837
SVSOKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
237 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

CTC001-009-231846-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130523T1900Z/
NEW HAVEN CT-FAIRFIELD CT-
237 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FAIRFIELD AND NEW HAVEN
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED. 

HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS AREA OF 
STORMS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

LAT...LON 4156 7294 4157 7288 4155 7286 4158 7283
      4156 7282 4158 7280 4158 7275 4149 7274
      4134 7288 4117 7352 4129 7344 4148 7348
      4151 7339 4148 7333 4151 7331 4152 7317
      4156 7316 4157 7310 4161 7305 4165 7294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 248DEG 29KT 4150 7310 4140 7308
          4132 7319

$$

JMC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
212 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS NW AND CHC POPS SE AS A RESULT.

SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH 1000-2000
J/KG CURRENTLY OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ...ALONG WITH 30 KT
OF BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-30. SO CAN
EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL. MAIN THREAT IF ANY STORM BECOMES SEVERE IS GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.

GIVEN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SE 1/2 OF CWA.

PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.

VFR CIGS AND VIS AT KLGA AND KJFK WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY
IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
FOG JUST OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KJFK. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD.
WILL IMPACT KJFK AND KLGA AROUND 18Z.

FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL POP UP AT ANY TIME...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WENT PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
-TSRA. MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOG AND STRATUS
OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND COULD MOVE IN...BRINGING VSBY
AND CIGS TO IFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
GOING DOWN TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 4
PM FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINGERING
SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING
PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT
OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
459 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-241000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-
459 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT THOUGH IS MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...INCLUDING URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ007>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-241000-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
459 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT THOUGH IS MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...INCLUDING URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-241000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
459 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.