Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MEANDER OFFSHORE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NARROW LINE OF STRONGER STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NYC. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS UNTIL 5 PM.
THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST.

INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH.

THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 20Z AND
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH.

SHOWERS END AFTER 07Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST.
HEIGHTS THEN RISE AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030S HIPRES WILL BRING FAIR WX AND SEASONAL TEMPS WED THRU THU. LOW
PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF THE REGION
WED...AND REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH STILL ANCHORED OVER
NEW ENGLAND...THE PRES GRAD WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NE WINDS
WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. THE CWA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LVL MOISTURE AND FROGEN AXIS. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO RAIN CHANCES DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FEATURES.
ENOUGH SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAIN ATTM TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY WITH A MAX AROUND 50 PERCENT. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO SEASONAL LVLS BASED ON THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ENE FLOW. THE
MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER AT NGT SHOULD RESULT IN SMALLER DIURNAL
SWINGS...YIELDING LOWS AOA CLIMO. DISPLACEMENT OF THE HIGH SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S WOULD LEAD TO MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LINE OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LINE OF PRECIP/FRONT.
SUSTAINED GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
COASTAL TAF SITES MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25 KTS AND GUSTS
30-35 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN. LLWS CONCERNS REMAIN PSBL WITH
WINDS 45-50 KT AT 2K FT UNTIL 22Z. WINDS THEN SHIFT WNW-NW AND
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 00Z.

CONVECTION...LINE AT 1930Z EXTENDING THROUGH LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY INTO FAR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
PUSH EAST...WEAKENING AND EXITING EASTERN LI/SE CT BY 00Z. ISO TSTM
PSBL WITHIN THE LINE...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST BE A BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN MAKER.

PRECIP ENDS AND CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 00Z THIS EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 KTS PSBL THROUGH
22Z...MOD CONFIDENCE ON LLWS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING. WINDS MAY VARY
AS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH...VARYING BETWEEN 200 AND 260 BRIEFLY. ISO
TSTM PSBL BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KTS PSBL THROUGH THE
AFTN...MOD CONFIDENCE ON LLWS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING. WINDS MAY VARY
AS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH...VARYING BETWEEN 200 AND 260 BRIEFLY. ISO
TSTM PSBL BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KTS PSBL THROUGH 21Z...MOD
CONFIDENCE ON LLWS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KTS PSBL THROUGH
21Z...MOD CONFIDENCE ON LLWS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN IFR/MVFR CIGS.
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KTS PSBL WITH ANY TSTM...MOD CONFIDENCE ON LLWS
AND WIND SHIFT TIMING. ISO TSTM PSBL BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KTS PSBL THROUGH THE
AFTN..MOD CONFIDENCE ON LLWS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
OF TSTM.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-WED...VFR.
.THU-SAT...CHC OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SUB-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG AND GUSTY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT. WIND DIMINISHES BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...AND
ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE OCEAN COULD BE CONVERTED OVER TO A
HAZARDOUS SEAS SMALL CRAFT LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE WIND DIMINISHES.

PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS WED THRU SAT ON
THE OCEAN. PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
PROTECTED WATERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN SOUND AND
BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
EQUIPMENT...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
321 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW WAYNE             40.96N  74.25W
10/07/2013                   PASSAIC            NJ   SKYWARN SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ONE LANE AT SQUAD PLACE

&&

JM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
418 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PUTNAM VALLEY           41.34N  73.87W
10/07/2013                   PUTNAM             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING PART OF OSCAWANA LAKE ROAD.

&&

JM