Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1012 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

.UPDATE...OUR MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS SLOW MOVING...HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS DICKSON COUNTY...SPREADING ACROSS NASHVILLE METRO.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE LIKELY CAUSING STANDING WATER ON
ROADS AND RISES AND SMALL STREAMS. THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WEST OF THE INITIAL CELLS...SO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

LARGER CONVECTIVE AREA TO OUR NORTHWEST IS SHOWING WARMING CLOUD
TOPS. LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS MID TN WILL BE
SCATTERED AND MOSTLY DISORGANIZED. BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP WELL INTO THE
80S...AND SURFACE CAPES WILL PUSH OVER 3 KJ/KG. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH SOME BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE. WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STILL NOT SEEING
ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OR FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED FOR HOURLY TRENDS AND WORDING.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS SEEM REASONABLE...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE
CONTINUED UNUSUALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX AND UNSEASONLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE MID-
SOUTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH AND
WEAKENING...AND LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY 12-18Z TODAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE
TODAY WITH PUSH OF NORTHWEST ML/UL FLOW...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH
OK/TX SFC LOW. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS PLENTY SUFFICIENT WITH
DECAYING BOUNDARY PASSING THIS MORNING AND SECOND APPROACHING
FRONT LATE TODAY FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS/STORMS TREND TO CONTINUE.
FRONT SETS UP NEAR NORTHERN KY BORDER TONIGHT THEN BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SFC WAVE RIDES SLOWLY ALONG IT AND
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE MID-STATE LATE SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH SOME
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FRIDAY...MOISTURE AT OR BELOW H85 REMAINS HEALTHY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AND HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY HELPS PUSH FRONT
DOWN TO THE TN/AL BORDER WHERE IT MEANDERS INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AS ML/UL TROUGHS DEEPEN SOME.

OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP INGREDIENTS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
FOR PCPN CHANCES NEXT 7 DAYS. EXPECT CHANCE FOR PCPN TO REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE ON SOUTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY...BUT
CHANCES SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONT
TRANSITIONS FURTHER SOUTH INTO AL.

BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SFC
LOW/BOUNDARY TODAY/THURSDAY...WHICH IS NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA.
WHEN FRONT PASSES ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE AT THAT POINT GOOD BIT
MORE SHALLOW. THUS NEXT FEW DAYS...SEVERE THREAT SEEMINGLY MINIMAL.
ISOLATED FLOODING HOWEVER VERY POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
538 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-081030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
538 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES LOCALLY...PRODUCING GUSTY
WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
MINOR STREET FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES ON CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
920 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

TNZ024-071445-
HUMPHREYS-
920 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY...

AT 914 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW JOHNSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE NEW JOHNSONVILLE AND HURRICANE
MILLS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...AND BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3603 8800 3607 8796 3605 8754 3597 8753
      3595 8756 3595 8760 3593 8763 3591 8770
      3584 8772 3584 8782 3580 8785 3584 8795
      3594 8793 3594 8800 3598 8800

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
942 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

TNZ024-025-057-071530-
DICKSON-HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-
942 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKSON...NORTHERN
HICKMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES...

AT 939 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINEWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE BUCKSNORT...PINEWOOD...NUNNELLY...
LYLES AND BON AQUA.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3606 8772 3603 8718 3599 8719 3597 8720
      3597 8721 3592 8720 3577 8723 3584 8776

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1014 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

TNZ025>027-057-059-071600-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-HICKMAN-WILLIAMSON-
1014 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CHEATHAM...SOUTHWEST
DAVIDSON...SOUTH DICKSON...NORTH HICKMAN AND NORTHWEST WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES...

AT 1012 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BURNS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE BON AQUA...BURNS...WHITE
BLUFF...FAIRVIEW...KINGSTON SPRINGS...PEGRAM...NATCHEZ TRACE AT
HIGHWAY 96...BELLEVUE...AND LEIPERS FORK.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3618 8688 3580 8690 3588 8737 3615 8735

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1106 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

TNZ062-075-071645-
BEDFORD-RUTHERFORD-
1106 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BEDFORD AND SOUTHERN
RUTHERFORD COUNTIES...

AT 1103 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EAGLEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE ROVER...ROCKVALE...DEASON...
CHRISTIANA AND FOSTERVILLE.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3565 8664 3569 8664 3571 8668 3575 8670
      3577 8666 3579 8666 3579 8662 3582 8662
      3583 8663 3585 8660 3583 8621 3551 8632

SHAMBURGER