Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
155 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION EAST OF I-65 REALLY STARTING TO BACK-
BUILD THE LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS, AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES MUCH LONGER.
THE 18Z LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA SHOWS CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -11.6 AND CAPE OF 4012 J/KG. HOWEVER, THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS FARTHER WEST
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR DIRECT SUN. BUT DRIER AIR
PENETRATING FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO GREATLY REDUCED THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. LOOK FOR THE DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD SO THAT ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WILL
APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS, JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
A SECOND E-W ORIENTED FRONT DROPPING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. SPC IS KEEPING ITS SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AREAS WEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 3, WITH
NOTHING SHOWING UP IN THEIR EXTENDED OUTLOOK, EITHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  89  69  89 /  05  10  05  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  88  68  87 /  05  10  10  40
CROSSVILLE     62  84  64  84 /  20  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       68  89  69  90 /  10  05  05  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  89  67  89 /  05  05  05  20
WAVERLY        68  89  69  88 /  10  05  05  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-201015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
501 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AND A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

JOHNSTONE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 AM     HAIL             HERMITAGE               36.20N  86.62W
05/19/2013  E0.88 INCH       DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NW CROSSVILLE           35.95N  85.04W
05/19/2013                   CUMBERLAND         TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ROAD CLOSURES COUNTY WIDE.
            ALSO 2 HOUSES WERE INDUNDATED BY 6 TO 8 INCHES OF FLOOD
            WATERS IN DOWNTOWN CROSSVILLE.

0204 PM     HAIL             SE SMITHVILLE           35.96N  85.82W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       DE KALB            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESPOTTER REPORT OF 1 INCH HAIL IN SMITHVILLE.

0253 PM     HAIL             5 N MCMINNVILLE         35.76N  85.78W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             TN   FACEBOOK

            FACEBOOK REPORT OF 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN THE FAULKER
            SPRINGS AREA JUST SOUTH OF GREEN HILL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300410 OHX1300411 OHX1300412 OHX1300413

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
413 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             5 E MCMINNVILLE         35.69N  85.69W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESPOTTER REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL JUST EAST OF
            MCMINNVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300414

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
414 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 AM     HAIL             HERMITAGE               36.20N  86.62W
05/19/2013  E0.88 INCH       DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NW CROSSVILLE           35.95N  85.04W
05/19/2013                   CUMBERLAND         TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ROAD CLOSURES COUNTY WIDE.
            ALSO 2 HOUSES WERE INDUNDATED BY 6 TO 8 INCHES OF FLOOD
            WATERS IN DOWNTOWN CROSSVILLE.

0204 PM     HAIL             SE SMITHVILLE           35.96N  85.82W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       DE KALB            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESPOTTER REPORT OF 1 INCH HAIL IN SMITHVILLE.

0234 PM     HAIL             5 E MCMINNVILLE         35.69N  85.69W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESPOTTER REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL JUST EAST OF
            MCMINNVILLE.

0253 PM     HAIL             5 N MCMINNVILLE         35.76N  85.78W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             TN   FACEBOOK

            FACEBOOK REPORT OF 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN THE FAULKER
            SPRINGS AREA JUST SOUTH OF GREEN HILL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300410 OHX1300411 OHX1300412 OHX1300414 OHX1300413

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
417 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             10 NE MURFREESBORO      35.96N  86.27W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN MILTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300415

31

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