Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
523 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...LINE OF TSRA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER 40KT AND BRIEF
IFR WX TO CKV SHORTLY...AND THROUGH THE BNA AREA BEFORE 03Z. THE
WEAKENING BAND OF TSRA WILL CROSS CSV 03Z-06Z. AFTER FROPA...WNW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 25KT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN SETTLE TO
ABOUT 07KT UNDER SKC. MONDAY WILL BRING NW WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH
FEW-SCT CU.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RADAR TRENDS SHOW SUPER-CELLS WITH TORNADOES JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA...AND AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
SPAWNING THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE NORTHEAST...AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR
AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WE STILL HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR AHEAD OF IT...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS DECREASING AS ANY MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PUSHES FARTHER AWAY FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-WEST SLIDES
EASTWARD...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS
EVENTS...SO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...AND LOWS IN THE 30S OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
EXTENDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MOST OF THIS ENERGY GETS CUT-OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. NEXT WEEKEND. BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OFF AND ON AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS NEXT BLAST OF
COLD AIR WILL BE STRONGER WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -6C AS SHOWN BY
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ009>011-028>034-
062>066-075-077>080.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-
022>027-056>061-093>095.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
352 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

TNZ009>011-028>034-062>066-075-077>080-181115-
MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-
FENTRESS-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
352 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
STATE LATER THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SUSTAINED GRADIENT WINDS
OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT CAUSE DAMAGE...TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.

TNZ005>008-022>027-056>061-093>095-181115-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-
MARSHALL-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
352 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
STATE LATER THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED GRADIENT WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT CAUSE DAMAGE...TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
539 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

TNZ005>007-022-023-180045-
BENTON-HOUSTON-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART-
539 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...HOUSTON...MONTGOMERY...
ROBERTSON AND STEWART COUNTIES...

AT 536 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLARKSVILLE TO 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF TENNESSEE RIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE HOUSTON COUNTY AIRPORT...INDIAN
MOUND...WOODLAWN...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...TENNESSEE RIDGE...CUMBERLAND
CITY...PALMYRA...ERIN...ADAMS...CUNNINGHAM AND CEDAR HILL.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3665 8678 3633 8745 3634 8751 3630 8752
      3626 8758 3631 8811 3637 8809 3637 8801
      3644 8807 3649 8806 3664 8779

ROSE

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