Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
911 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP TO REFLECT MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE THIS MORNING.
POPS AND CLOUDS INCREASED, AND MENTION OF "HEAVY RAINFALL"
INSERTED INTO TEXT. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS EAST AT 25 MPH AND
BELIEVE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA
SHORTLY, AND THEN PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
RECENT DOPPLER ESTIMATE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.25 AND
1.50 INCHES IN AN HOUR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY 1-HR RATES APPROACH FFG'S, WHICH
ARE MAINLY BTWN 1.8 AND 2.2 INCHES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-131000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING...TYPICAL FLOOD
PRONE LOCATIONS AND ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS....INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR...FROM AROUND DICKSON...OVER TO AROUND NASHVILLE...
COOKEVILLE AND CROSSVILLE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
818 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

TNZ005>007-023>026-121400-
CHEATHAM-DICKSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART-
818 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DICKSON...HOUSTON...
HUMPHREYS...MONTGOMERY...ROBERTSON AND STEWART COUNTIES...

AT 812 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAK GROVE TO
WAVERLY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE WOODLAWN...ERIN...CUMBERLAND
CITY...WAVERLY...PALMYRA...CLARKSVILLE...MCEWEN...CUNNINGHAM...
SLAYDEN...VANLEER...CHEATHAM DAM AND CHARLOTTE.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON IN
THESE AREAS. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

LAT...LON 3608 8741 3604 8799 3665 8744 3665 8688

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
855 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

TNZ006-007-023>026-121445-
CHEATHAM-DICKSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-
855 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DICKSON...HOUSTON...
HUMPHREYS...MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES...

AT 852 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF
GUTHRIE TO MCEWEN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE CUNNINGHAM...SLAYDEN...MCEWEN...
ADAMS...VANLEER...CEDAR HILL...CHEATHAM DAM...CHARLOTTE...PLEASANT
VIEW...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE BLUFF AND ASHLAND CITY.

YOU CAN EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS, WITH HOURLY RATES
AVERAGING ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH. MINOR FLOOD IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3610 8720 3605 8775 3665 8723 3665 8712
      3665 8662

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
928 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

TNZ007-008-026-027-121515-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-
928 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...ROBERTSON
AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 922 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
SPRINGFIELD TO GREENBRIER TO ASHLAND CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE SPRINGFIELD...ASHLAND CITY...
GREENBRIER...BEAMAN PARK...JOELTON...RIDGETOP...ORLINDA...BELLS
BEND...CROSS PLAINS...WHITES CREEK...WHITE HOUSE AND MILLERSVILLE.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL. HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS IS EXPECTED. BRIEF STREET FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3640 8646 3631 8654 3632 8655 3631 8657
      3629 8656 3611 8672 3612 8717 3619 8715
      3621 8718 3642 8700 3665 8695 3666 8659
      3664 8656 3666 8651 3666 8642

ROSE