Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PLENTY OF TSRA/SHRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AROUND BNA. THIS CONVECTION IS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTH THOUGH...SO OTHER THAN VCSH...WILL BE ABLE TO AMEND THE TAFS
AND REMOVE TSRA WORDING AND ASSOCIATED TEMPOS SOON.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM THE
MID-MS VALLEY REGION...PERHAPS PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TOWARDS DAWN. LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW SINCE WE SHOULD BE QUITE
WORKED OVER BY THEN. BUT WILL INCLUDE LOWERED VSBYS TOWARDS
MORNING GIVEN ALL OF THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING...AND PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE
MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE...AND COULD BE GUSTY. CSV WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOCKED IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MORNING...SO LEFT
LOWER CIGS IN THERE LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING VERY JUICY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH CURRENTLY
WORKING TOWARD BNA UP TO NEAR LEX WHERE DEWPTS ARE POOLING AS HIGH
AS 76. WAVES OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KY DOWN
INTO MIDDLE TN...AND UPSTREAM TOWARD COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL WELL
NORTHWEST.

THIS INCREASING CONVECTION TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND AIRMASS REMAINS WITH HIGHEND INSTABILITY
AND AMPLE POSITIVE ENERGY. SERIES OF OUTFLOWS/WEAK BOUNDARIES INTERACTING
LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL AID EARLY WITH COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR BNA AROUND 12-14Z...GETTING INTO THE MIX LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT CERTAINLY THERE BUT WEAK WIND STRUCTURE...
ABSENCE OF GOOD ELEVATED DRY LAYERS AND FREEZING LVL/WETBULB ZERO
NEAR 15KFT COULD HELP KEEP IT SOMEWHAT LIMITED/ISOLATED. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE WILL MAKE FOR SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
BUT DO EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO KEEP FLASH
FLOODING THREAT DOWN...BUT THIS COULD BE ISSUE LATER.

COLD FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND WILL TAKE UNTIL 19-21Z TO PASS CSV.
THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH EAST/SOUTH THROUGH A GOOD
PART OF THU. ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT...
PRETTY GOOD DRYING SET TO SLIP IN BEHIND. ON FRI...LIKELY TO SEE
DEWPTS DOWN IN THE 50S LATER IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND OUR
WX WILL BE SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORECAST
TO SLIDE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT WITH
ML/UL RIDGES TO REMAIN OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY REALLY MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...PCPN WILL BE ISO-SCT AT BEST...STARTING ON SUN. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POP TREND CURRENTLY RUNNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-111000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 AND ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH
MAIN CONCERNS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SINCE
GROUND CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...PONDING
OF WATER AND THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TAKES PLACE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. IN THESE LOCATIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. SINCE GROUND CONDITIONS
ACROSS THESE AREAS REMAIN SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...PONDING
OF WATER AND THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TAKES PLACE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF AND ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING
REPORTING CRITERIA.

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE ALSO.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31

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