Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Nashville, TN

281 
WGUS74 KOHX 271938
FFSOHX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
238 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TNC037-149-187-272100-
/O.CON.KOHX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130427T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RUTHERFORD TN-WILLIAMSON TN-DAVIDSON TN-
238 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND NORTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

AT 236 PM CDT...RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA HAS DIMINSHED BUT CREEKS 
AND STREAM ARE STILL RUNNING FULL AND WILL FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH MAY AGGRAVATE THE 
SITUATION ONCE AGAIN.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANTIOCH...BRENTWOOD...LA VERGNE...NOLENSVILLE...SMYRNA AND
WALTERHILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8653 3610 8651 3591 8628 3581 8660
      3602 8683 3612 8654

$$

BOYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
101 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
...COULD BE A STORMY NIGHT IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE...

SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS AT EARLY AFTERNOON
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MEMPHIS BY 23Z
AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AT
THAT TIME. WARM FRONT STRETCHES EAST FROM LOW CENTER INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO JUST SOUTH OF MEMPHIS...AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE DOWN THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME GENERALLY IN A SUNLIT AREA WITH 70 DEGREE
TEMPS AND 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. AM EXPECTING AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AREAS
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER 00Z WE MAY EVEN SEE A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND EXTEND
DOWN THROUGH THE MEMPHIS AREA AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IN ANY
HURRY TO EXIT SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING SUNDAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. RAIN FINALLY EXITS
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY.

WENT PRETTY MUCH WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERS GUIDANCE IN
THE LONGER TERM AS MODELS CANT SEEM TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THE DEEP
UPPER LOW IS GOING END UP. THEREFORE I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LONG TERM FORECAST AND HAVE DECIDED TO CONCENTRATE MORE ON THE
SHORTER TERM.

BOYD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  73  52  75 /  80  50  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    57  71  48  77 /  80  40  05  05
CROSSVILLE     56  69  51  70 /  80  70  30  20
COLUMBIA       60  74  53  76 /  80  50  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   59  73  52  77 /  80  50  20  10
WAVERLY        58  71  49  77 /  80  40   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

BOYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
502 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
502 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DOVER TO
PULASKI.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF I-40 TO 2 TO
3 INCHES SOUTH OF I-40. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SOME SECONDARY RIVERS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY RISE INTO
ACTION STAGE...INCLUDING THE DUCK AND BUFFALO RIVERS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

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