Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LOW IS BRINGING A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP TYPES...AS
WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ABRUPT TEMPERATURE FALL. SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CENTERED IN UT/NORTHERN
AZ...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 110M CENTERED IN NM. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS WAS STILL BEHIND THE LOW...WITH 125KT WEST OF
THE ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES UP TO 140KT. SHARP TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WAS
NOTED AT 850MB FROM CENTRAL NEB THROUGH WESTERN IS INTO CO...WITH
A 22C TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KOMA AND KLBF. SURFACE FRONT
AT 20Z EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL IA THROUGH NORTHWEST MO TO
SOUTHEAST KS AND TOWARD SOUTHWEST OK...WITH 20-30F TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...OVER AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL BELOW FREEZING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LINGERING FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN
NORTHWESTERN CWA TONIGHT...AND CHANGE TO SNOW TOMORROW FROM MIDDAY
IN THE NORTHWEST TO EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.  ALL IN ALL...MAKES
FOR A VERY CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HR.
MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA AS UPPER LOW
DIGS AND PIVOTS NORTHWARD...ALLOWING PRECIP TO REMAIN AS FZRA OR IP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN BELOW FREEZING.  THAT SAID...WITH SYSTEM PIVOTING
TONIGHT...MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEB AND WESTERN IA IS
PROGGED TO HOLD ONTO TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...THUS KEEPING RAIN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE HAIL...AND EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  ALSO THINK
STORMS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AS 4KM WRF/NAM WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND ONGOING STORMS
ARE TAPPING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO INFILTRATE
THE REST OF THE CWA AND CHANGE BOTH RAIN AND FZRA/IP TO SNOW.  THE
CHANGEOVER SHOULD BEGIN BY AROUND MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL.  CURRENT GRIDS
WOULD PUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF AREAS WHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING FZRA/IP FROM AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY.  FOR NOW...WILL EXTEND HEADLINES THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY...AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS END TIME AGAIN.

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY IN WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -8 TO -10C.  MODERATING TREND
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING AGAIN.  MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL
FOR ONE OR MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  WITH FOCUS ON NEARER TERM FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH MODEL
BLENDS FOR NOW...WITH A FEW INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN.

MAYES

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND WINDS ARE FROM THE
NORTH AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN AT KOFK IS FREEZING RAIN AND OR
SLEET THERE. GENERALLY EXPECT LIQUID PCPN AT KOMA AND KLNK...BUT
SOME TSTMS POSSIBLE.

MILLER

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ018-031-
     032-042.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-
     017-030.

IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
450 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ034-044-045-051>053-066>068-
089>093-101200-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-BURT-DODGE-WASHINGTON-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-LANCASTER-CASS-
OTOE-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
450 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042-101200-
KNOX-CEDAR-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-PLATTE-
450 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL.

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM ONE TENTH TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 MPH OR MORE
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH POWER
OUTAGES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WHICH COULD CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED HOWEVER ANY ICE AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

NEZ015-033-043-050-065-078-088-101200-
THURSTON-CUMING-COLFAX-BUTLER-SEWARD-SALINE-JEFFERSON-
450 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEST OF BEATRICE...LINCOLN...
FREMONT AND TEKAMAH TONIGHT A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BUT
ICE AND SNOW REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

FOBERT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
519 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             CARROLL                 42.28N 97.19W
04/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       WAYNE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VDEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
522 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

NEZ050-065-092245-
BUTLER NE-SEWARD NE-
522 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER AND NORTHWESTERN SEWARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 519 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRESHAM...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF YORK...
MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FALLING ON SUB-FREEZING SURFACES
RESULTING IN A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON ROADS...VEHICLES... AND
POWER LINES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVID CITY...BELLWOOD...RISING CITY...ULYSSES...OCTAVIA...GARRISON
AND SURPRISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4138 9736 4137 9693 4089 9725 4092 9737
      4131 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 201DEG 44KT 4100 9733

DEWALD