Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
122 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

SURFACE COLD FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF KOMA TO SOUTH OF
KLNK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH 21Z. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF KLNK THROUGH 19/00Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE MVFR RANGE IN THUNDERSTORM AREAS. JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...CEILINGS MAY DROP BRIEFLY INTO MVFR RANGE BEFORE BECOMING
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SMITH

&&

DISCUSSION...

GLANCE AT REGIONAL RADAR ALREADY SHOWING LINE OF CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG INTENSE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT NRN MN TO
NWRN KS. BNDRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF MIGRATING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT JUST AHEAD OF RELATIVELY
DEEP FRONTOGENESIS BNDRY IS QUITE STOUT...PER RUC13. ALSO...STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVG ASSOCIATE WITH RRQ OF JET MAX ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM ISSUE IS TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/PCPN THRU THE CWA.
REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BNDRY ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTER
OF STORMS IN WRN NEB WAS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY
REACH THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AT ANY RATE...SFC WIND PROGS
VIA TIME-SERIES INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRUE FRONT REACHING
KOFK BY LATE MORNING...THEN EARLY AFTN AT KLNK AND KOMA...THUS
APPROXIMATE TIME FRAME FOR FOR EXPECTED CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION THE LAST 24 HRS HAS
CULMINATED IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AS SEE BY PWS VALUES
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 160%-220% ABOVE NORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT
THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT PCPN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN OVER
SRN CWA WHERE THE RUC13 IS SHOWING PRECIP EFFICIENCY/WARM CLOUD DEPTH
PEAKS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN TONIGHT AS STABLE AIRMASS ENVELOPS
THE REGION. IN CASE OF LINGERING PCPN ACTIVITY...WILL MAINTAIN TOKEN
EVENING POPS SOUTH.

EXCELLENT WEATHER ON TAP THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS.

NEXT ROUND OF PCPN COMES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN NEXT POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF EXITS THE ROCKIES AND SWEEPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS.  WITH GFS AND ECM IN AGREEMENT DECENT LLVL
MOISTURE FEED PRECEDING THE FRONT...GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

DEE

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1156 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-200100-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1156 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BEATRICE TO HARLAN. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMITH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
949 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

NEZ044-051-191530-
DODGE NE-SAUNDERS NE-
949 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DODGE AND NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

AT 946 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH BEND...OR 24 MILES
EAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREMONT...NORTH BEND AND MORSE BLUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 9659 4145 9641 4135 9689 4139 9691
      4147 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 1446Z 240DEG 21KT 4140 9689

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
115 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

NEZ066-078-088>090-191845-
JOHNSON NE-JEFFERSON NE-GAGE NE-SALINE NE-LANCASTER NE-
115 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLYMOUTH...OR 13 MILES WEST OF BEATRICE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEATRICE...WILBER...HICKMAN...DE WITT...FIRTH...STERLING...ADAMS...
CORTLAND...PLYMOUTH...HALLAM...CLATONIA...PICKRELL...ROCA...SPRAGUE
AND SWANTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 9711 4076 9674 4052 9646 4039 9625
      4020 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 222DEG 34KT 4033 9700

KERN