Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A MATURE MCS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA SHOULD ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST. SEVERE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...AND
A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOP
WRF AND RAP SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION...
THUS WILL HAVE HIGH POPS THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE THREAT. HAVE
ISSUED A COUPLE OF SEVERE WARNINGS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
BUT WE HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO GET ANY HAIL REPORTS BIGGER THAN
DIME TO NICKEL SIZE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS QUITE HIGH AT 50 TO
60 KNOTS...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLIGHTLY MARGINAL. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ISSUE WARNINGS AS NECESSARY
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST CORES...AND
MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THE WATCH FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR IN TIME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE AFTERNOON MAY BE MOSTLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH...WHICH COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS SHOULD
KEEP SATURDAY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BECOMES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES...SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE OF HOW FAR
EAST THIS SYSTEM CAN GET BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...VERSUS THE DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. CHANCES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
THOUGH...BUT MAY STILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN IOWA. WAVE
COULD MOSTLY BE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SO SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE REGION REMAINS IN PESKY NORTHWEST
FLOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN TRYING TO TIME WEAK WAVES INTO
THE AREA...THUS OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER FRONT SETTLING SOUTH COULD BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY...BUT COULD ALSO SHUNT
ANY PRECIP THREAT OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY HITTING TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
421 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-021130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
421 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...HOWEVER LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN REDEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY EVENING IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

KERN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
809 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COLUMBUS                41.43N 97.36W
08/01/2013  M2.75 INCH       PLATTE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON THE WEST SIDE OF COLUMBUS.

&&

BOUSTEAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
813 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ065-078-020200-
SEWARD NE-SALINE NE-
813 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEWARD AND SALINE
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 809 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UTICA...OR 11 MILES EAST OF YORK...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRETE...WILBER...FRIEND...UTICA...DORCHESTER...BEAVER CROSSING...
GOEHNER AND CORDOVA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FRIDAY MORNING.

LAT...LON 4049 9737 4069 9737 4069 9738 4070 9737
      4096 9737 4067 9692 4047 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 311DEG 26KT 4086 9737

CHERMOK/DEWALD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
858 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEIGH                   41.70N 97.24W
08/01/2013                   COLFAX             NE   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL POWER POLES DOWN. SIGNIFCANT TREE DAMAGE. TREE
            FELL ONTO HOME THROUGH ROOF. OBTAINED THROUGH SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

VDEWALD