Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A MATURE MCS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA SHOULD ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST. SEVERE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...AND
A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOP
WRF AND RAP SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION...
THUS WILL HAVE HIGH POPS THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE THREAT. HAVE
ISSUED A COUPLE OF SEVERE WARNINGS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
BUT WE HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO GET ANY HAIL REPORTS BIGGER THAN
DIME TO NICKEL SIZE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS QUITE HIGH AT 50 TO
60 KNOTS...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLIGHTLY MARGINAL. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ISSUE WARNINGS AS NECESSARY
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST CORES...AND
MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THE WATCH FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR IN TIME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE AFTERNOON MAY BE MOSTLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH...WHICH COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS SHOULD
KEEP SATURDAY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BECOMES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES...SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE OF HOW FAR
EAST THIS SYSTEM CAN GET BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...VERSUS THE DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. CHANCES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
THOUGH...BUT MAY STILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN IOWA. WAVE
COULD MOSTLY BE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SO SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE REGION REMAINS IN PESKY NORTHWEST
FLOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN TRYING TO TIME WEAK WAVES INTO
THE AREA...THUS OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER FRONT SETTLING SOUTH COULD BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY...BUT COULD ALSO SHUNT
ANY PRECIP THREAT OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY HITTING TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
421 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-021130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
421 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...HOWEVER LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN REDEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY EVENING IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

KERN

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