Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

MORNING STORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING KOFK/KOMA...AND MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK YET BEFORE MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
STORMS...MAY SEE VIS DROP TO MVFR BRIEFLY. ONCE THE STORMS HAVE
CLEARED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL DROP OFF...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 12-15KT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD PASS NEAR KOFK SOMETIME IN THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

MAYES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...

SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...INCLUDING ONE IN
SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO THAT WAS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST NEB.  RIBBON OF 12C+ 850MB DEWPOINTS
EXTENDED FROM TX/OK THROUGH KS/NEB AND TOWARD NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN
WI/MI.  STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE NOTED FROM EASTERN NEB
THROUGH NV AND SOUTHWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
INTO TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...AND NEAR-MISS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THURSDAY.  CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN WHAT
ONGOING STORMS WILL DO AS THEY PROGRESS EAST.  ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN
IA...BUT EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN.  HAVE CONTINUED SOME POPS INTO THE
MORNING...AND DO EXPECT STORMS TO CLEAR THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL NEB/SOUTH
CENTRAL SD AND MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST.  HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOONT THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT STORMS MAY CLIP THE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DO THINK THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.  OVERALL...AS IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERALL REMAINS LOW.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PATTERN TAKES A HOT AND DRY
TURN...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 20S C AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.  MADE FEW CHANGES HERE...AS
GOING FORECAST FOR HIGHS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.  DID
REMOVE POPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
CAPPED...BUT KEPT POPS IN THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING DESPITE SOME
INCONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS.  OUR THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SHORTWAVE IN THE EVENING SLIDING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY EVENING.

KEPT FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY...WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES AND MUCH COOLER 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS.

MAYES

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
404 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-242315-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
404 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAT INDEX READINGS ON TUESDAY MAY REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER HIGH HUMIDITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
925 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

IAZ055-069-079-NEZ044-045-051>053-067-241515-
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-MILLS IA-HARRISON IA-CASS NE-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-
WASHINGTON NE-SARPY NE-SAUNDERS NE-
925 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...NORTHERN
MILLS...SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...NORTHERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...
DOUGLAS...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...SARPY AND EASTERN SAUNDERS COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

AT 921 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MEAD TO
ASHLAND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 43 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS TO
20 MILES NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR.
RAIN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...COUNCIL BLUFFS...BELLEVUE...PAPILLION...LA VISTA...OFFUTT
AFB...MILLARD...BLAIR...RALSTON...ELKHORN...MISSOURI VALLEY...
GRETNA...ASHLAND...VALLEY...SPRINGFIELD...YUTAN...ARLINGTON...FORT
CALHOUN...MEAD AND WATERLOO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 9553 4098 9646 4101 9647 4104 9646
      4105 9648 4139 9656 4165 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 230DEG 41KT 4129 9654 4101 9640

DERGAN

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