Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SURFACE TROUGH JUST NOSING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TURNING COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW LIKELY TO KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE IT COULD TURN WET AGAIN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES ON SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS OF
THIS PAST WEEKS SYSTEM. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY THEN TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. MODELS HOWEVER
DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVES SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE
IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
CYCLE. A FEW SPOTTY MVFR CIGS MAY PASS THROUGH...BUT OVERALL
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT DUE TO THE EXTREMELY SPOTTY
NATURE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAF FORECAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT/KERN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-311245-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
532 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE 10 PM GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEWARD TO
LINCOLN AND NEBRASKA CITY.

A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP ON FRIDAY
AS WELL...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
554 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

NEZ065-066-078-302330-
SEWARD NE-SALINE NE-LANCASTER NE-
554 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD...
NORTHEASTERN SALINE AND NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 553 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CRETE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINCOLN...CRETE AND DENTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4068 9703 4074 9697 4084 9682 4084 9668
      4072 9670 4060 9691 4059 9691 4059 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 230DEG 27KT 4067 9694

NIETFELD