Small Craft Advisory 35, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1129 PM PDT SUN APR 7 2013

...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS...COASTAL NORTH BAY...SAN MATEO COAST AND EAST BAY HILLS
FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH IS BEING DRIVEN SOUTHEASTWARD BY STRONG
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPROACHING 100-130 KNOTS. THE TROUGH WILL
REACH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTH
BAY...SAN MATEO COAST AND EAST BAY HILLS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PARTICULARLY WIND PRONE
AREAS IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (REFERENCE NPWMTR OR
WMO HEADER WWUS76).

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL BE UNDERWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS NORTHERLY
WINDS KICK IN WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. WEAK INVERSIONS PRESENT THIS
EVENING PER THE 00Z OAKLAND UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COOLING AND DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS NORCAL...WINDS...MIXING AND COOLING WILL HELP KEEP
SURFACE WINDS COUPLED TO THE DEEPER LAYERED STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. AS THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES THE
BAY AREA 12Z MONDAY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE GUSTY.
AS TIMING WOULD HAVE IT THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. QPF GENERATED BY THE TROUGH WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MAIN
VORT MAX SHEARS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SIERRA
NEVADA. 18Z/00Z NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOW 50 KNOT WINDS REACHING AS
LOW AS THE 925 MB LEVEL WHICH IS JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF
THE GROUND. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER SINCE
SATURDAY. NOT SURE IF 50 KNOT WINDS WILL REACH ALL THE WAY TO SEA
LEVEL WHICH WOULD BRING THINGS MUCH CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA BUT FIGURED A WIND ADVISORY IS A GOOD PLACE TO START. THE
ACV-SFO GRADIENT WILL CLIMB TO 6-7 MB MONDAY AND HOLD MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL HOLD INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A
RESULT OF THE STRENGTHENED NORTHERLY GRADIENTS. GALES HAVE BEEN
LONG ADVERTISED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND NOW GALES ARE
VALID FOR THE INNER AS WELL AS OUTER COASTAL WATERS ALSO INCLUDING
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY.

THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BY
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO LET UP OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OVER THE EPAC
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
MUCH LESS WIND EVERYWHERE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY
WEAK TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND IN A SIMILAR
FASHION WILL BE LIMITED IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND.

NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
BROUGHT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. A STRONG VORT MAX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED
FROM THE NORTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35 KT NEAR SFO MONDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. VFR AFTER
12Z. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 12Z. VFR BY 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...AS THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE FOR BOTH BAYS AS WELL WITH GALE WINDS EXPECTED IN SFO BAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL PRODUCE STEEP WIND
WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. MARINERS VENTURING OUT TO THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AND CHECK THE LATEST CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...COASTAL NORTH BAY...NORTH BAY
	     MTNS...SAN MATEO COAST...AND EAST BAY HILLS
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...SF BAY

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
758 PM PDT SUN APR 7 2013

CAZ505-507-509-511-090300-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
758 PM PDT SUN APR 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE...SUNDAY NIGHT

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS...COASTAL NORTH BAY...SAN MATEO COAST AND EAST BAY HILLS
FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG
BUT DRY TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST CROSSING THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND SIERRA NEVADA MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT IT
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...COASTAL NORTH
BAY...SAN MATEO COAST AND EASTY BAY HILLS UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID-WEEK AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO FALL
BUT IT SHOULD BE LIMITED. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ006-506-508-510-512-513-516>518-528>530-090300-
SAN FRANCISCO-NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
758 PM PDT SUN APR 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE...SUNDAY NIGHT

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY LESS
WIND BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL MID-WEEK AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO FALL BUT IT SHOULD BE LIMITED. DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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