Small Craft Advisory 159, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PST MON NOV 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT AROUND 7 MB CONTINUES DOWN THE COAST WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES THE RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON READINGS
CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S BAY AND INLAND LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MORE PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY FOR THE WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM A VERY DRY 19 AT NAPA TO 38 AT SFO.
SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL RAPIDLY AGAIN. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL DON'T EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE TOO MUCH COOLER TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP BREEZY WINDS BLOWING JUST ENOUGH IN THE
HILLS TO PROMOTE MIXING.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY STRONG AND WELL DEFINED
UPPER RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CLEAR...DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WHICH
IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.

BY THURSDAY A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN OREGON AND TURN
THE WIND FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE DIRECTION WHICH
SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME SUBTLE COOLING NEAR THE COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

IF THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE RIGHT THE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY STAYS BENIGN WITH ZONAL FLOW LEADING TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

ALL EYES ARE ON THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH ENERGETIC JET ENERGY
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
GFS RUNS SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN BY VETERANS DAY WHILE THE GEM AND
ECMWF HAVE NOW BACKED OFF AS A STRONG JET DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
ALEUTIANS LOSES SOME OF ITS ENERGY TO A CUT-OFF NORTHEAST OF
HAWAII. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE INTERACTION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WITH A CORRESPONDING 598 DM HIGH BEING PUMPED
UP OUT NEAR 45N/170W. THUS GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SOLUTIONS WILL
BE EXPECTING TO SEE SOME FAIRLY LARGE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS.
PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK BUT WE MAY NEED TO BE PATIENT IN
WAITING FOR BONAFIDE RAIN TO ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST MONDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE REGION VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT LLWS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: RILEY

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