Red Flag Warning 7, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

400 
WWUS86 KMTR 291138
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013

...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
HILLS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING...

.NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS SOME OF
THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS AND HILLS.
THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND COMBINE
WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS
MORNING.

CAZ507-511-291800-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131229T1800Z/
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
338 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND EAST BAY HILLS...

* AFFECTED AREA: ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN FIRE ZONE 507 
  NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...AND FIRE ZONE 511 EAST BAY HILLS AND 
  DIABLO RANGE. 

* TIMING: THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* WIND: NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY: 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW 
  HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE 
  ANY NEW IGNITIONS WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

358 
WWUS86 KMTR 291756
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
956 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013


CAZ507-511-291900-
/O.EXP.KMTR.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131229T1800Z/
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
956 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1000 FEET IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND EAST BAY HILLS...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM PST THIS MORNING. 


$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
929 AM PST SAT DEC 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:52 AM PST SATURDAY...IN WAKE OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CALIF THE RIDGE IS REBUILDING
JUST OFF THE COAST. ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OFFSHORE WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLELING THE COAST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THIS MORNING WITH READINGS DOWN TO THE MID
20S IN THE COLD SPOTS NORTH BAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY OVERALL
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.

12Z NAM CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WITH RIDGE EDGING CLOSER
TO THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. TREND WILL BE TOWARD STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW
BY TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTY NE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
MOST OF THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
SIERRAS...BUT SOME INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXISTING GRID FORECAST THIS MORNING. MAIN
IMPACTS MESSAGES ARE CONTINUED POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND
APPROACHING KING TIDES THIS COMING WEEK WITH POTENTIAL HIGH WATER
IMPACTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:25 AM PST SATURDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY IS NOW PUSHING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH IT'S EXIT...MID LEVEL AND HIGH
CLOUDS ALSO PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS SEEN ON THIS
MORNING'S IR SAT IMAGERY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DRY SYSTEM...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

EVEN WITH COOLING OF 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA...AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY (GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S). SIMILAR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL COAST WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...YET SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON'T WARM MUCH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BEYOND DAY 7 WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE LATEST
GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND
ALLOW FOR A MID/UPPER TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY CHANGES FOR RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE THREE MODELS
CURRENTLY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS...HOWEVER
ONGOING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:29 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO TURN ONSHORE...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXCEPT AT KSTS...WHERE PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY (12/28)...SUNDAY (12/29)...
MONDAY (12/30). *SIGNIFIES THERE ARE ADDITIONAL YEARS FOR THE RECORD.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION................12/28........12/29........12/30..
 KENTFIELD...............72/1953......76/1967......69/1967
 SAN RAFAEL..............78/1975*.....75/1967......69/1967
 NAPA....................75/1975*.....71/1967......71/1995
 SAN FRANCISCO...........73/1967......68/1989......68/1945
 SFO AIRPORT.............71/1967......65/1989*.....69/1945
 OAKLAND.................70/1975......66/1997......63/1997
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.........73/1967......63/1975......65/1966*
 RICHMOND................74/1967......74/1967......70/1967
 LIVERMORE...............73/1967*.....73/1967......71/1945
 MOFFETT FIELD...........72/1967......68/1975......68/1989
 SAN JOSE................71/1967......69/1999*.....66/1958*
 GILROY..................73/1999......71/1999*.....72/1975

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION................12/28........12/29........12/30..
 MONTEREY................81/1956......75/1956......75/1963
 SANTA CRUZ..............75/1956*.....80/1917......80/1963
 SALINAS.................75/1999......76/1980......80/1980
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........80/1956......79/1956......80/1980
 KING CITY...............80/1956......80/1956......82/1980

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: RILEY
CLIMATE: CANEPA

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