Alert archive / California / Red Flag Warnings in 2013

Red Flag Warning 3, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

August 18, 201310 counties in California

NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued this red flag warning at Aug 18, 2013, 5:02 AM PDT for 10 counties in California. It took effect at Aug 19, 2013, 12:00 AM PDT. It was in force for 62 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 18, 2013, 5:02 AM PDT (12:02 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 19, 2013, 12:00 AM PDT
Expired
Aug 21, 2013, 1:47 PM PDT
In force
62 hr
Issued by
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Counties Alameda County, CA, Contra Costa County, CA, Marin County, CA, Monterey County, CA, Napa County, CA, San Benito County, CA, San Mateo County, CA, Santa Clara County, CA, Santa Cruz County, CA, Sonoma County, CA

The radar

The San Francisco radar (KMUX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Oakland, CA (KOAK), launched 12:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 28 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2013-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2013-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 26 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1227 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

337 
WWUS86 KMTR 181202
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
502 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY PRODUCE DRY
LIGHTNING. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME WETTER OVER TIME...
HOWEVER DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE VERY DRY...FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE EVEN WITH STORMS THAT PRODUCE RAIN.

CAZ506-507-510>512-190400-
/O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0002.130819T0600Z-130821T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0003.130819T0700Z-130821T1000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
502 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE RED FLAG WARNING COVERS MOST
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: ALL INLAND AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
  EXCEPT NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN BY LATE
  SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
  NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
  THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME
  WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
  AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS
  THAT ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
DRY FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE
STARTS.

&&

$$

CAZ516>518-528-190400-
/O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0002.130819T0600Z-130821T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0003.130819T0700Z-130820T1900Z/
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
502 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PDT
TUESDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE RED FLAG WARNING COVERS SAN BENITO
COUNTY AND INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON PDT TUESDAY.  

* AFFECTED AREA: SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
  COUNTY.

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN BY LATE
  SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
  THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME
  WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
  AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS
  THAT ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
DRY FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE
STARTS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
9 follow-up statements
812 
WWUS86 KMTR 190224
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
724 PM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

CAZ506-507-510>512-191600-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.130819T0700Z-130821T1000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
724 PM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE RED FLAG WARNING COVERS
MOST INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...

* AFFECTED AREA: ALL INLAND AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 
  EXCEPT NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN BY LATE 
  SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT... 
  POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
  THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY BUT SHOULD 
  BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$

CAZ516>518-528-191600-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.130819T0700Z-130820T1900Z/
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
724 PM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON PDT TUESDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE RED FLAG WARNING COVERS
SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA: SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
  MONTEREY COUNTY. 

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN BY LATE 
  SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
  THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY BUT SHOULD 
  BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
032 
WWUS86 KMTR 191122
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
422 AM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

CAZ506-507-510>512-200400-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130821T1000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
422 AM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE RED FLAG WARNING COVERS MOST INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...

* AFFECTED AREA: ALL INLAND AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 
  EXCEPT NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
  LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
  BAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
  THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY BUT SHOULD 
  BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$

CAZ516>518-528-200400-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130820T1900Z/
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
422 AM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT TUESDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RED FLAG WARNING COVERS SAN BENITO COUNTY AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA: SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INLAND PORTIONS OF 
  MONTEREY COUNTY.

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
  AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
  THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY BUT SHOULD 
  BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
093 
WWUS86 KMTR 192131
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
231 PM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

CAZ506-507-201300-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130822T0000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
231 PM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR THE NORTH BAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
  LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY
  BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
  ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$

CAZ510>512-201300-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130820T1800Z/
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
231 PM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR THE EAST BAY AND THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: THE EAST BAY AS WELL AS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
  LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY
  BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
  ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$

CAZ516>518-528-200600-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130820T0600Z/
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
231 PM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA: MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
  LEAST 11 PM THIS EVENING.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY
  BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
  ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
995 
WWUS86 KMTR 200001
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 PM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

CAZ516>518-528-201200-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130820T1200Z/
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
501 PM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
  AT LEAST 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING. 

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE 
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE 
  DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY 
  PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$

CAZ506-507-201300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130822T0000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
501 PM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR THE NORTH BAY...

* AFFECTED AREA: THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
  AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. 

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE 
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE 
  DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY 
  PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$

CAZ510>512-201300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130820T1800Z/
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
501 PM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR THE EAST BAY AND SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS...

* AFFECTED AREA: THE EAST BAY AS WELL AS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. 

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT 
  LEAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING. 

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE 
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE 
  DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY 
  PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
742 
WWUS86 KMTR 201017
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
317 AM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

CAZ516>518-528-201130-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130820T1200Z/
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
317 AM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS CANCELLED
THE RED FLAG WARNING. 

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING NOW APPEAR VERY UNLIKELY IN THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

CAZ506-507-201830-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130822T0000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
317 AM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 506 NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS...
  FIRE ZONE 507 NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. 

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
  AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE 
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE 
  DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY 
  PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$

CAZ510>512-201800-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130820T1800Z/
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
317 AM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR THE EAST BAY PLUS THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 510 EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS...FIRE 
  ZONE 511 EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE...FIRE ZONE 512 
  SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. 

* TIMING: A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
  THE MORNING.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE 
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE 
  DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY 
  PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
379 
WWUS86 KMTR 201535
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 AM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

CAZ510>512-210700-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130821T0700Z/
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
835 AM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING FOR THE EAST BAY PLUS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT.

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 510 EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS...FIRE 
  ZONE 511 EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE...FIRE ZONE 512 
  SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING: A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
  LATE THIS EVENING.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE 
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE 
  DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY 
  PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$

CAZ506-507-210700-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130822T0000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
835 AM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 506 NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS... 
  FIRE ZONE 507 NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
  AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE 
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE 
  DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY 
  PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
671 
WWUS86 KMTR 202214
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
314 PM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

CAZ510>512-202315-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130821T0700Z/
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
314 PM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY
LIGHTNING FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND EAST BAY HILLS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS CANCELLED
THE RED FLAG WARNING. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 510 EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS...FIRE 
  ZONE 511 EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE...FIRE ZONE 512 
  SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.

* THUNDERSTORMS: CHANCES FOR DRY LIGHTNING ARE FAR LESS IN THE
  EAST BAY HILLS AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. 


$$

CAZ506-507-211200-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130822T0000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
314 PM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND HILLS...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 506 NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS...
  FIRE ZONE 507 NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. 

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
  AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE 
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE 
  DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY 
  PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
541 
WWUS86 KMTR 210954
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
254 AM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

CAZ506-507-220300-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130822T1000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
254 AM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 506 NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS...
  FIRE ZONE 507 NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. 

* TIMING: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
  LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE 
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE 
  DRY BUT SHOULD BECOME WETTER WITH TIME. STRONGER STORMS MAY 
  PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: SPEEDS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS: DRY FUELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT 
  LIGHTNING MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN WITH STORMS THAT 
  ARE WET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
649 
WWUS86 KMTR 212047
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
147 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013


CAZ506-507-212200-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130822T1000Z/
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
147 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY
LIGHTNING FOR THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS CANCELLED
THE RED FLAG WARNING BECAUSE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DIMINISHED.



$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Aug 18, 4:50 AM PDT, 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 4:50 AM PDT, 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
450 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN EFFECT BEGINNING
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED ABOUT A
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND
THIS LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF CA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN EMBEDDED IN
THIS BAND OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTED THE
NORTHERN TIP OF NAPA COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS MOSTLY ENDED...AND THE MODELS AGREE THAT MOST SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST THROUGH TODAY.
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT ABOUT 1000
FEET...SO EXPECT RELATIVELY EARLY CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY.
AND...WITH LESS MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ANYWHERE FROM JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
NEAR THE COAST TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER INLAND.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SINK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE TO THE
EAST WHICH WILL BRING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR
AREA BY THIS LATE EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. INITIALLY THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY AND SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING (SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW).

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CA COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNE ON TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (OR AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE 06Z NAM). SHOWER
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS JOURNEY NORTH. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...WITH
GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SF BAY AREA. POPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. MUCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS
900 J/KG...COINCIDENT WITH 700-500 MB LAYER RH VALUES AS HIGH AS
75%...WERE FORECAST BY THE 00Z NAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
CHANCES WILL END IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW PICKS UP
SPEED AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS...AS A COOLER AIRMASS
ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER LOW. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER.

GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE.
BUT THEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN COOLING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED AROUND MRY BAY BUT LESS SO IN SF BAY IN PART DUE TO
MIXING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED
IN THE LAST HOUR TO NEAR 1400 FT HOWEVER STRATUS REMAINS THIN AND
ONSHORE GRADIENT WEAKER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ANTICIPATE
EARLY BURN OFF AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH THE UPPER LOW
DECREASES CERTAINTY. WEST WINDS INCREASE TODAY BECOMING GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR AT THE TERMINAL SO FAR THIS MORNING HOWEVER
PATCHY CIGS AROUND SUNRISE REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 16 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20. STRATUS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY CIGS AROUND 600 FT EXPECTED TO BURN
OFF BY 15-16Z. OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR. CLEARING BY MID MORNING THOUGH
LATER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO DEEPER CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR DISTRICT BY LATE THIS
EVENING WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY...BRINGING IN
GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. INITIALLY...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER
WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THAT
WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING SHORTLY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL MEAN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO
THE NNE. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ONLY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...BUT CONTINUE
THE WARNING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SF BAY AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL BY LATE
MONDAY...BUT EVEN THEN NEW FIRE STARTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN HOW DRY THE FUELS ARE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
FIRE WEATHER: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 17, 12:29 PM PDT, 16 hours 33 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1229 PM PDT SAT AUG 17 2013

CAZ506-507-510>512-516>518-528-181930-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
1229 PM PDT SAT AUG 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA EXCEPT THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR OUR COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH OUR AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
STARTS ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

*** FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
 TUESDAY NIGHT ***

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ006-505-508-509-513-529-530-181930-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-
SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
1229 PM PDT SAT AUG 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA PLUS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR OUR COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH OUR AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in California, 2013Every red flag warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.