Red Flag Warning 1, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

573 
WWUS86 KMTR 301132
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT TUE APR 30 2013

.STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WHEN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
WITH VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

CAZ507-010300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0001.130501T0100Z-130502T0100Z/
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
432 AM PDT TUE APR 30 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTH
BAY HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 507 NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. INCLUDES 
  ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN MARIN...SONOMA AND NAPA 
  COUNTY INCLUDING MOUNT SAINT HELENA AND MOUNT TAMALPAIS.

* TIMING: FROM 6 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERIOD OF
  STRONGEST WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

* WIND: NORTH TO NORTHEAST SUSTAINED 20 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT 
  GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
  PEAKS OF NAPA COUNTY ALONG THE YOLO AND LAKE COUNTY BORDERS.

* HUMIDITY: AFTERNOON MINIMUM 15 TO 20 PERCENT...STAYING LESS 
  THEN 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF RECORD DRY FUELS...NEAR RECORD 
  WARMTH ALONG WITH STRONG AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
  THE PROBABILITY OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO 
  USE EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

CAZ511-010300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0001.130501T0100Z-130502T0100Z/
EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
432 AM PDT TUE APR 30 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE EAST
BAY HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 511 EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE. 
  INCLUDES ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ALAMEDA AND CONTRA 
  COSTA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA COUNTY HILLS. 
  INCLUDING MOUNT DIABLO STATE PARK...HENRY COE AND THE 
  VICINITY OF MOUNT HAMILTON.

* TIMING: FROM 6 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY WITH THE
  PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 
  AM WEDNESDAY.

* WIND: NORTH TO NORTHEAST SUSTAINED 20 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT 
  GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
  PEAKS INCLUDING MOUNT DIABLO.

* HUMIDITY: AFTERNOON MINIMUM 15 TO 20 PERCENT...STAYING LESS 
  THEN 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF RECORD DRY FUELS...NEAR RECORD 
  WARMTH ALONG WITH STRONG AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
  THE PROBABILITY OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO 
  USE EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

143 
WWUS86 KMTR 010251
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
751 PM PDT TUE APR 30 2013

CAZ507-011300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130502T0100Z/
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
751 PM PDT TUE APR 30 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS ABOVE
1000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 507 NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. INCLUDES 
  ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN MARIN...SONOMA AND NAPA 
  COUNTY INCLUDING MOUNT SAINT HELENA AND MOUNT TAMALPAIS.

* TIMING: THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERIOD OF
  STRONGEST WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

* WIND: NORTH TO NORTHEAST SUSTAINED 20 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT 
  GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
  PEAKS OF NAPA COUNTY ALONG THE YOLO AND LAKE COUNTY BORDERS.

* HUMIDITY: AFTERNOON MINIMUM 15 TO 20 PERCENT...STAYING LESS 
  THEN 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF RECORD DRY FUELS...NEAR RECORD 
  WARMTH ALONG WITH STRONG AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
  THE PROBABILITY OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO 
  USE EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

CAZ511-011300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130502T0100Z/
EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
751 PM PDT TUE APR 30 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE EAST BAY HILLS ABOVE
1000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 511 EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE. 
  INCLUDES ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ALAMEDA AND CONTRA 
  COSTA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA COUNTY HILLS. 
  INCLUDING MOUNT DIABLO STATE PARK...HENRY COE AND THE 
  VICINITY OF MOUNT HAMILTON.

* TIMING: THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERIOD OF
  STRONGEST WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

* WIND: NORTH TO NORTHEAST SUSTAINED 20 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT 
  GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
  PEAKS INCLUDING MOUNT DIABLO.

* HUMIDITY: AFTERNOON MINIMUM 15 TO 20 PERCENT...STAYING LESS 
  THEN 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF RECORD DRY FUELS...NEAR RECORD 
  WARMTH ALONG WITH STRONG AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
  THE PROBABILITY OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO 
  USE EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

951 
WWUS86 KMTR 011142
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
442 AM PDT WED MAY 1 2013

CAZ507-020100-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130502T0100Z/
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
442 AM PDT WED MAY 1 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS ABOVE
1000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 507 NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. INCLUDES 
  ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN MARIN...SONOMA AND NAPA 
  COUNTY INCLUDING MOUNT SAINT HELENA AND MOUNT TAMALPAIS.

* TIMING: THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
  WINDS UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

* WIND: NORTH TO NORTHEAST SUSTAINED 20 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT 
  GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
  PEAKS OF NAPA COUNTY ALONG THE YOLO AND LAKE COUNTY BORDERS.

* HUMIDITY: LOCALLY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF RECORD DRY FUELS...NEAR RECORD
  WARMTH ALONG WITH STRONG AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP A HIGH
  PROBABILITY OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO USE
  EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

CAZ511-020100-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130502T0100Z/
EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
442 AM PDT WED MAY 1 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE EAST BAY HILLS ABOVE
1000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 511 EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE. 
  INCLUDES ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ALAMEDA AND CONTRA 
  COSTA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA COUNTY HILLS. 
  INCLUDING MOUNT DIABLO STATE PARK...HENRY COE AND THE 
  VICINITY OF MOUNT HAMILTON.

* TIMING: THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERIOD 
  OF STRONGEST WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND: NORTH TO NORTHEAST SUSTAINED 20 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT 
  GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
  PEAKS INCLUDING MOUNT DIABLO.

* HUMIDITY: AFTERNOON MINIMUM 15 TO 20 PERCENT...STAYING LESS 
  THEN 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF RECORD DRY FUELS...NEAR RECORD 
  WARMTH ALONG WITH STRONG AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
  THE PROBABILITY OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO 
  USE EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

470 
WWUS86 KMTR 020030
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
530 PM PDT WED MAY 1 2013

CAZ507-021900-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130502T1900Z/
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
530 PM PDT WED MAY 1 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTH BAY HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 507 NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. INCLUDES 
  ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN MARIN...SONOMA AND NAPA 
  COUNTY INCLUDING MOUNT SAINT HELENA AND MOUNT TAMALPAIS.

* TIMING: THROUGH NOON PDT THURSDAY WITH THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
  WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY.

* WIND: NORTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
  TO 30 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
  NAPA COUNTY ALONG THE YOLO AND LAKE COUNTY BORDERS. 

* HUMIDITY: AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES VERY POOR AT
  NIGHT...INCREASING LOCALLY TO ONLY 20 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF RECORD DRY FUELS...NEAR RECORD 
  WARMTH ALONG WITH STRONG AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP A 
  HIGH PROBABILITY OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED 
  TO USE EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

CAZ511-021900-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130502T1900Z/
EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
530 PM PDT WED MAY 1 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
EAST BAY HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 511 EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE.
  INCLUDES ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ALAMEDA AND CONTRA
  COSTA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA COUNTY HILLS.
  INCLUDING MOUNT DIABLO STATE PARK...HENRY COE STATE PARK AND THE
  MOUNT HAMILTON VICINITY.

* TIMING: THROUGH NOON PDT THURSDAY WITH THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
  WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY.

* WIND: NORTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT 
  GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
  PEAKS INCLUDING MOUNT DIABLO.

* HUMIDITY: AFTERNOON MINIMUM 10 PERCENT...RECOVERING TO NO MORE
  THAN 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF RECORD DRY FUELS...NEAR RECORD 
  WARMTH ALONG WITH STRONG AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
  THE PROBABILITY OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO 
  USE EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

984 
WWUS86 KMTR 021048
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
348 AM PDT THU MAY 2 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLED...

CAZ507-511-021200-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130502T1900Z/
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
348 AM PDT THU MAY 2 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS CANCELLED
THE RED FLAG WARNING.


* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 507 NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...FIRE ZONE 
  511 EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE.

* TIMING: THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS HAS NOW PASSED. EVEN
  THOUGH HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THE THREAT OF
  STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS HAS ENDED.

* WIND: NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...A FEW MORNING GUSTS TO 20
  MPH. WIND TURNING WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY: STEADY FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY
  RECOVERING TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS: THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS HAS NOW ENDED.
  HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH THE RED FLAG
  WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FIRE PERSONNEL AND THE GENERAL
  PUBLIC SHOULD KEEP A HEIGHTENED SENSE OF AWARENESS AS NEAR
  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT MON APR 29 2013

...A WARM WEEK AHEAD WITH POSSIBLE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY HILLS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PDT MONDAY...JUST ISSUED A MINOR GRID
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CLOUDS FROM OUR
AOR PLUS ANY MENTION OF FOG. ALSO SENT OUT A MESSAGE ON FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER IN REGARD TO POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK. RIGHT
NOW THE FORECAST IS SHOWING FRIDAY BEING THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST
NUMBER OF POTENTIAL RECORDS BEING BROKEN.

WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS
THIS MORNING FOR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT GREATLY INCREASE (SFO-WMC OVER 20 MB) ALONG WITH
925 MB SPEEDS FORECAST TO NEAR 50 KT. DEFINITELY AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A VERY WARM DAY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. DATA FROM THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS
THE MARINE INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO LESS THAN 500 FEET AND THAT A
25 DEG C AIRMASS IS ONLY 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO HAD
INCREASED TO AN IMPRESSIVE 9.7 MB BY 2 AM. FINALLY...SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS NEARLY OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND IT'S UNLIKELY
THAT MORE THAN A FEW PATCHES OF COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM-UPS LIKE
THIS...THE ECMWF GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE...BOTH
OF WHICH ARE TOO COOL. HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF PRETTY
CLOSELY. EVEN WITH THE WARMER TEMPS TODAY...DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE
NOT LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. ABOUT THE ONLY CLIMATE STATION THAT HAS
A GOOD SHOT AT REACHING RECORD WARMTH TODAY IS SAN RAFAEL. THE
RECORD HIGH THERE FOR TODAY IS 89 AND THE FORECAST HIGH IS 88.
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW TODAY TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS NEAR THE
OCEAN...ALTHOUGH EVEN COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
OF WARMING OVER YESTERDAY.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE TODAY AND THEN
CONTINUE TO DIG SE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. COLD AIR
SPILLING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
PRESSURE INCREASES ACROSS THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SF BAY
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS. WINDS IN THE
HILLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY BY TUESDAY EVENING...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 50
KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...AND
POSSIBLY FOR THE EAST BAY HILLS TOO. IN ADDITION...THESE STRONG
AND DRY WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THESE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS FORECAST TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INLAND TO OUR EAST.
THUS...SOME INLAND AREAS MAY COOL A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
MUCH WARMER THAN GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
FROM NORTHERLY FLOW. ALSO...COASTAL AREAS ACROSS MOST OF THE SF
BAY AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SAN FRANCISCO SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. IN CONTRAST...COASTAL AREAS FROM MONTEREY
BAY SOUTHWARD SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS. THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN MAKING IT ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...WE COULD SEE A SITUATION ON
WEDNESDAY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST MONDAY WHERE SAN
FRANCISCO WARMED UP TO 82 DEGREES WHILE SANTA CRUZ COOLED TO 70
DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTER BEING 84 THE DAY BEFORE.

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EASE IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
HILLS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY THE MODELS SHOW NEUTRAL TO
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE SOUTHERLY SURGE
IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ALL COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM THE
COAST BY THURSDAY. ALSO...BY THURSDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH HAD TEMPORARILY RETREATED
OFFSHORE FOR A FEW DAYS...BUILDS BACK OVER CALIFORNIA. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL MOVE HIGHER ON THURSDAY
AND REMAIN WARM ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
WARMER THAN THE GFS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST. IF THE ECMWF
WERE TO VERIFY...WE WOULD SEE SEVERAL DAILY RECORD HIGHS LATE IN
THE WEEK.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWED A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CA FROM EITHER THE EAST OR THE WEST. BUT THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP NEAR THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH OUR AREA BEING IN THE DRY AND
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST...EXCEPT THE MONTEREY BAY...WHERE IFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
CONFIDENCE. A SOUTHERLY SURGE CONTINUES TO CREEP UP THE COAST AT
A STEADY PACE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
IMPACT THE COASTLINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PUTTING A QUICK STOP
TO THE STRATUS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INITIALIZED WELL...ADDING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS JUST OVER 20 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
337 AM PDT MON APR 29 2013

CAZ507-511-301300-
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
337 AM PDT MON APR 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND
EAST BAY HILLS.

.DAY ONE...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT

WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
80S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE HILLS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE NIGHT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE HILLS LATE ON
TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS RIDGES AND PEAKS. LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES
AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THESE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING A PERIOD
OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD OF
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AND WHEN LITTLE OR NO RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED IN THE HILLS. AFTER AN UNUSUALLY DRY LATE WINTER AND EARLY
SPRING...FUELS IN THE HILLS ARE DRIER THEN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DYKEMA