Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Missoula, MT

July 8, 2013Mineral County, Sanders County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 8, 2013, 2:27 PM MDT for Mineral County, Sanders County, Montana. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2013, 2:27 PM MDT (20:27 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2013, 3:15 PM MDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Mineral County, MT, Sanders County, MT

The radar

The Missoula radar (KMSX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 41 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -248 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1886 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 8, 4:05 AM MDT, 10 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 4:05 AM MDT, 10 hours 22 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
405 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...A trof of low pressure in Washington state is
approaching the Northern Rockies. Ahead of this quick moving short
wave this early morning are a couple of lines of showers and
thunderstorms in West Central Montana through Central Idaho. This
activity will increase in coverage through the morning hours and
encompass much of the region. Impacts from this activity will be
brief heavy rain, gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning.

A secondary burst of scattered showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop this afternoon with the short wave nosing its way into
northwest Montana. Similar impacts of gusty outflow winds, heavy
rain and frequent lightning are once again expected.

This system will quickly exit the region during the evening hours
and a strong ridge of high pressure returns through much of Thursday.
Warmer temperatures and dry weather will occur.

Confidence is increasing a bit for a scenario of a weak trof of
low pressure to brush through the region. The intensity of this
low is uncertain. It appears now the best potential for convection
may well be in southwest Montana and Lemhi county. The other
impact late Thursday through Saturday may be moderate westerly
winds.

Models diverge in their solution Sunday through early next week.
They are indicating either a continued windy westerly flow or a
building strong ridge with much warmer temperatures. Confidence is
very low on either solution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently in
central Idaho and west central Montana will impact terminal KMSO
through 08/1200z. These storms will increase in coverage later
this morning through mid Thursday evening. Terminals impacted will
be KGPI, KMSO and KBTM. Any storm that will pass through these
regions will impact terminals with brief heavy rain, frequent
lightning and gusty outflow winds. This activity will quickly
dissipate after 09/0300z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 8, 11:53 AM MDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 8, 1:27 PM MDT, 1 hour before

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Special weather statement, Jul 8, 1:41 PM MDT, 46 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 8, 2:08 PM MDT, 19 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 8, 2:22 PM MDT, 5 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 8, 2:27 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 7:14 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Powell	46 min
Jul 8, 11:31 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Granite	29 min
Jul 8, 11:37 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Ravalli	23 min
Jul 8, 1:41 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Flathead	49 min
Jul 8, 2:08 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Ravalli	37 min
Jul 8, 2:37 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MSO	Flathead	113 min
Jul 8, 2:44 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Flathead	46 min
Jul 8, 3:17 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Deer Lodge	43 min
Jul 8, 3:20 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Lake	40 min
Jul 8, 3:33 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Lake	27 min
Jul 8, 4:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Missoula	33 min
Jul 8, 8:36 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Idaho	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2013 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.