Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Missoula, MT

510 
WWUS85 KMSO 301035
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
435 AM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013

MTZ110-111-310300-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0010.130830T1800Z-130831T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
435 AM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* MINIMUM HUMIDITIES: 12-17 PERCENT.

* TIMING: WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
  PEAK AROUND 4PM MDT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
  BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY BY EARLY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS INTENDED TO ALERT LAND MANAGERS TO EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY DRY FUELS...WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FIRE DANGER.

&&

$$

944 
WWUS85 KMSO 310244
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
844 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013

MTZ110-111-310345-
/O.EXP.KMSO.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130831T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
844 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
204 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...The shortwave that will bring thunderstorms to Idaho
and western Montana is passing through central Oregon this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are already associated with
this feature and will pass through Idaho early this afternoon and
into western Montana later this afternoon. Most locations have a
fair chance to see a shower with many locations to see
thunderstorms by this evening. Stronger cells will produce brief
heavy rain and gusty winds, so these conditions are of main
concern through this evening. Most of the thunderstorm activity is
forecast to pass off to the east this evening. The main trough
will pass to the north through Canada overnight and Friday
morning, but northwest Montana may see a continued influence with
cloud cover and shower chances.

Friday through Sunday, model guidance remains consistent in
depicting relatively dry conditions, however there are nuances
that have recently changed. For example, a weak and fast-moving
storm system that models have anticipated north of the Canadian
border on Friday has weakened significantly in the most recent
model runs. The impact of this weaker solution is slightly weaker
winds on Friday for the Northern Rockies. However, breezy and very
dry conditions across southwest Montana are enough to warrant fire
weather highlights during Friday afternoon/evening.

Monday through Thursday, confidence in the forecast models remains
quite low, with little consistency day-to-day. Despite previous
advertisements of strong high pressure late next week, the models
since changed prognoses and now depict southwesterly flow aloft over
the Northern Rockies. This southwesterly flow is a reasonable
solution and essentially a persistence forecast. The long term
forecast period will likely be dominated by warm temperatures and
periodic shower/thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will begin to pass through
Idaho early this afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave. This
shortwave will pass through Idaho and western Montana this
afternoon and evening so showers and thunderstorms are expected to
pass through most locations between 29/2100z-30/0100z. All TAF
sites may be affected by showers and thunderstorms between the
same time period with brief heavy rain and gusty outflow winds of
main concern. Cloud cover and showers may linger or redevelop
through northwest Montana tonight and Friday morning, otherwise
the rest of the region will have little cloud cover overnight.
Westerly winds will increase on Friday and will mix down to the
surface through the afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Friday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...None.
&&

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