Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
MIDDLE TN WILL MOVE INTO THE MRX CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BEHIND THIS LINE...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY DRY.
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL SPREAD A LARGE BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WITH THE WARM...MOIST AND WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOS
POPS TRENDING LIKELY NOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS
LOOKING ON TRACK. SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY PLUS DAYTIME HEATING...SO
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SW VA/NE TN AREAS
EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WARM FRONT AND NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. KEPT SUNDAY DRY LEADING INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INTRODUCED TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER FAVORED AREAS OF SW VA AND NE TN...ALTHO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS...BOTH 21/00Z AND 21/12Z GFSX MOS TEMPS ARE TRENDING
COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY. NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A BIT FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS...ESPECIALLY MINS UNTIL SOME
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  66  84  63  81  57 /  20  60  50  30  20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN    65  84  62  80  56 /  30  60  50  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN            65  84  62  81  56 /  30  60  50  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN   61  83  61  79  55 /  40  50  50  50  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

MJB/TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-221900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
250 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013 /150 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WHILE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ELSEWHERE. THE STORMS ON THE PLATEAU WILL
BE MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH...AND MAY REACH STRONG
TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL. ALSO...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LATER
THIS WEEK ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TG