Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY STRETCHING GENERALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WEST OF IT (OVER MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHERN AL) AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA RADARS REVEAL SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...WITH SOME TRAINING CELLS OVER MARION COUNTY
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS VERY HUMID SUMMER-LIKE AIR
MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION TODAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS
REVEAL A MODERATELY TO HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING TODAY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED NEAR THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL LAYER MAY KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING CONVECTION.

HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO BEEF UP THE
WORDING FOR TODAY SOME MORE...AND WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THE ZONE
FORECASTS THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY MORNING PRECIP WORDING AND TO
TWEAK TEMPS A LITTLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   82  65  88  66  89 /  70  30  20  10  20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     80  64  87  65  88 /  70  50  20  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN             80  64  87  65  88 /  60  40  20  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    78  61  85  60  86 /  70  60  30  10  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
900 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-201000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
900 AM EDT (800 AM CDT) SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A WARM AND VERY HUMID
AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO SOME FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...
WITH A BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
815 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TNZ098-191315-
MARION TN-
715 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

AT 712 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MARION COUNTY...WHICH WERE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1208 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EVENSVILLE              35.56N 84.96W
05/19/2013                   RHEA               TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY...REPORTED BY
            DISPATCH.

&&

DMG