Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY...STRETCHING FROM NEAR INDIANAPOLIS SOUTHWEST TO NEAR LITTLE
ROCK. AREA RADARS REVEAL SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOCAL AIR MASS MAY
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TOWARDS SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OVERALL...CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS FOR TODAY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...
AND WILL NOT PLAN TO UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   85  66  84  59  86 /  60  30  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     83  65  82  57  84 /  60  40  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN             83  64  82  56  84 /  60  40  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    81  62  80  52  82 /  70  50  30  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-280730-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013 /228 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
ON TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
LOW...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...BRINGING SOME GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. THE AIR MASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.

SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...SO LATER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE THREAT...BUT ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1211 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

TNZ086-087-102-271700-
EAST POLK TN-NORTHWEST MONROE TN-SOUTHEAST MONROE TN-
1211 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN POLK AND MONROE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1 PM...

AT 1208 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE.  THIS STORM
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1248 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

TNZ068-069-071-072-271800-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS TN-KNOX TN-LOUDON TN-NW BLOUNT TN-
1248 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOUNT...KNOX...AND LOUDON
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM...

AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOUDON...WHICH WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DMG