Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
302 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING
AND SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TO MID LAYER FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENCE IS BEST BET WITH THESE MINOR
SYNOPTIC SHIFTS. SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED WILL SEE
GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM WEAK FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH OVER
BERMUDA AND WEAK LOW OVER LA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...TO TROUGHING BY WEDNESDAY. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS
IN FCST ARE SAT NGT AND SUNDAY WITH LIKELY CATEGORY CONVECTION FOR
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  91  71  89  72 /  20  30  20  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  91  71  89  71 /  20  30  20  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  91  71  89  71 /  20  30  20  30  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  90  67  89  67 /  20  30  20  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SON/GC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
440 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-191000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
440 PM EDT (340 PM CDT) THU JUL 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...
WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION AND
STALLS OUT AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
413 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

TNZ017-018-046-182100-
JOHNSON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER TN-SULLIVAN TN-
413 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CARTER...JOHNSON AND
SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF MOUNTAIN CITY...DRIFTING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SOUTH HOLSTON DAM AND
HARR.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
429 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

TNZ040-041-182115-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS TN-NORTHWEST COCKE TN-
429 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCKE COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF WATERVILLE...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT...DRIFTING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DEL RIO.