Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ORGANIZED CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER NE TN AND SW VA...WHICH ORIGINATED EARLIER ALONG OR
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ALSO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM NRN AL NE INTO SE TN.
STORMS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW SEVERE THUS FAR...ALTHO SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS DID OCCUR OVER EXTREME NRN PARTS OF SCOTT COUNTY TN. A
GUST TO 30 MPH NOTED WITH A PASSING TSRA AT CHA.

PREVIOUS LATE AFTERNOON GRIDS WITH 50 TO 70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
HOLDING UP WELL...AND I TWEAKED THE POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT (OUT TO
11/06Z) UP TO LOWER END OF LIKELY OVER SW VA AND MOST OF NE TN.
THINK ADDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS A WISE
MOVE.

OTHERWISE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH FOR THESE
PERIODS. THIS LEAVES OUR CONVECTION MORE ON THE RANDOM OR JUST
BRIEFLY ORGANIZED PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS APPEAR TO BE A PROLONGED THREAT. HARD TO
TIME CONVECTION OR HIGHLIGHT AREAS FOR BEST DEVELOPMENT...SO JUST
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS WEATHER/POP GRIDS FOR NOW.

GFS MINS FOLLOWED CLOSELY...BUT OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE COOLER NAM
AND HOTTER GFS MOS FOR MAX TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EASTERN U.S. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH HELPS TO DRIVE A
COOL FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
STAYED WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A NICE
BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND FRONTAL PUSH ON TUESDAY TAPERING BACK
TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT POPS WERE REMOVED OVER MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS
TROUGHINESS GRADUALLY BECOMES REVITALIZED OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR SLIGHT AND SMALL
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEKEND
BEGINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  88  72  89  71 /  40  50  50  50  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  87  71  87  71 /  50  50  40  40  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  87  70  87  70 /  50  50  40  40  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  85  66  84  65 /  60  50  30  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-111915-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
306 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013 /206 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR FLOOD
PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY RETURNS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING TUESDAY MAY PROVIDE
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

TNZ086-087-102045-
NORTHWEST MONROE TN-SOUTHEAST MONROE TN-
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MADISONVILLE...
CITICO...TARIFFVILLE AND CITICO BEACH.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TG