Wind Advisory 4, NWS Marquette, MI

153 
WWUS73 KMQT 120253
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
953 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

...DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.WARM MOIST AIR MOVING OVER THE COLD GROUND AND SNOW COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. AS WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE CAUSED BY LOW PRESSURE PUSHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND ONTARIO DURING
THE DAY.

MIZ007-012>014-085-120600-
/O.CON.KMQT.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130112T0600Z/
LUCE-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWBERRY...MENOMINEE...ESCANABA...
GLADSTONE...MANISTIQUE...SENEY
953 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013 /853 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT
CST/ SATURDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR
   LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. 

 * SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING CONDITIONS
   TO SLOWLY IMPROVE.

IMPACTS...

 * FOG WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE 
   REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF VENTURING OUT... 
   PLAN EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT

&&

$$

MIZ001-003-121100-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0004.130112T1700Z-130113T0100Z/
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...HOUGHTON...HANCOCK
953 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EST
SATURDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH 
   GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

 * THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO 
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
   AND ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. 

IMPACTS...

 * THE STRONG WINDS MAY BREAK TREE LIMBS...LEADING TO SPORADIC 
   POWER OUTAGES. 

 * DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES... 
   ESPECIALLY ON ROADS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR 
   AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 
   MPH ARE EXPECTED. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT

&&

$$

669 
WWUS73 KMQT 120922
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...

.EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AROUND
45 TO 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE CAUSED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY BY LATE TODAY.

MIZ001-003-121730-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0004.130112T1700Z-130113T0100Z/
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...HOUGHTON...HANCOCK
422 AM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
   45 TO 50 MPH TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

 * THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO 
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
   AND ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. 

IMPACTS...

 * THE STRONG WINDS MAY BREAK TREE LIMBS...LEADING TO SPORADIC 
   POWER OUTAGES. 

 * DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES... 
   ESPECIALLY ON ROADS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR 
   AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 
   MPH ARE EXPECTED. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT

&&

$$

JLB

233 
WWUS73 KMQT 121711
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1211 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON...

.STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AROUND 45
TO 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE CAUSED BY LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITING FROM NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS
EVENING.

MIZ001-003-130100-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130113T0100Z/
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...HOUGHTON...HANCOCK
1211 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO
   50 MPH WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

 * THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO 
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
   AND ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. 

IMPACTS...

 * THE STRONG WINDS MAY BREAK TREE LIMBS...LEADING TO SPORADIC 
   POWER OUTAGES. 

 * DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES... 
   ESPECIALLY ON ROADS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR 
   AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 
   MPH ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT

&&

$$

KF

652 
WWUS73 KMQT 122025
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...

.LOW PRESSURE EXITING INTO CANADA WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY...GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH. EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

MIZ001-003-130100-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130113T0100Z/
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...HOUGHTON...HANCOCK
325 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO
   50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

 * THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
   ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

IMPACTS...

 * THE STRONG WINDS MAY BREAK TREE LIMBS...LEADING TO SPORADIC 
   POWER OUTAGES. 

 * DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES... 
   ESPECIALLY ON ROADS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR 
   AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 
   MPH ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT

&&

$$

KF

815 
WWUS73 KMQT 122300
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
600 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...

.AS LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

MIZ001-003-130000-
/O.CAN.KMQT.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130113T0100Z/
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...HOUGHTON...HANCOCK
600 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING. 

IMPACTS...

 * THE GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL BLOW AROUND SOME LOOSE OBJECTS THIS
   EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * SEND REPORTS TO NWS MARQUETTE OR VISIT WEATHER.GOV/MQT FOR 
   MORE INFORMATION. 

&&

$$
KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
158 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR S
CENTRAL AREAS...AND SPS FOR ALL BUT GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TODAY PERIOD. MNM AND ESC REPORTING
STATION HAD BEEN STUCK WITH 1/4SM VIS SINCE APPROX 12Z. SOME
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT/MIXING HAS BEEN NOTED AROUND AND S OF MNM
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF GETTING RID OF THE ADVISORY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
IDAHO INTO SRN CA AND AZ AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN
SW FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NE FROM CNTRL IL WHILE AN UPSTREAM
SHRTWV WAS MOVING FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
PREVAILED AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE CO THROUGH CNTRL
SD INTO NW MN. THE BAND OF 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT SUPPORTED
THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAD LIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA
LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKER 285K-290K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT(BELOW 850 MB) WHICH SUPPORTED MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH 2M TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING ...IN THE 33F
TO 35F AT MOST REPORTING SITES...GROUND TEMPS IN MANY LOCATIONS WERE
STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE OVERNIGHT RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ICY
SECONDARY ROADS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE IL SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE MOIST
SRLY FLOW AND CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING
...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WAS RETAINED THROUGH 12Z.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...ANY
LINGERING PROBLEMS WITH ICY ROADS SHOULD DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THE CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST...A SFC LO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO NE
MN BY 12Z SAT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRY SLOT UNDER THE JET SURGE
WILL DOMINATE...LIMITING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. WITH A STEADY S WIND AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS...EXPECT
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT ONLY APPROACHES THE FAR WEST BY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND MELTING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS AS PATTERN CHANGE IS
UNDERWAY. TROF WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS E OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WITH UNCERTAIN AMPLITUDE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRENGTHENING POLAR VORTEX WITH A GREATLY EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING
ARCTIC AIR MASS AROUND HUDSON BAY NEXT WEEK. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
FORECASTED OVER GREENLAND...THERE SHOULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
BITTER COLD AIR TO SLIP INTO THE UPPER LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH PHASE
OF RECENTLY STRENGTHENED MJO FAVORING WARMTH OVER THE ERN CONUS...IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR S THE REALLY BITTER COLD AIR
SINKS NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING HIGH OVER
GREENLAND. AT LEAST FOR NOW...WOULD STILL BE SKEPTICAL OF ANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS NEARING -30C OVER UPPER MI OR SHOWING
ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF INTRUSION OF BITTER COLD AIR GIVEN
COMPETING SIGNALS FOR WARMTH/COLD. SO...FCST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE COLD WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A
LITTLE BLO NORMAL NEXT WEEK. WITH SNOW COVER GETTING THIN IN MANY
AREAS AND NOT LIKELY TO INCREASE MUCH IF AT ALL AWAY FROM THE W AND
WNW WIND LES SNOW BELTS...THERE COULD BE PROBLEMS FOR WATER LINES IF
WE DO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST A SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE COLD.
AS JUST ALLUDED TO...PATTERN WILL BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE CHC FOR
ANY WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW...BUT LES WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE
OF THE FCST NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROBABLY
DOMINATE...PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LES IN UPPER MI
MOST DAYS. THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW FROM LES
NEXT WEEK...AND THERE MAY BE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TOTALS FOR THE WEEK
THERE.

BEGINNING SAT...SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW WILL BE IN NE MN AT 12Z. AS SYSTEM
MOVES ENE THRU NRN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS UPPER MI. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE N...AXIS OF MID
LEVEL DRY AIR IS FCST TO LINGER AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DRY FROPA.
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE W...CLOSER TO THE PASSING
DYNAMICS/DEEPER MOISTURE AND WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE ON
MORE OF A CYCLONIC UPSLOPE COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN. 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -15C TOWARD 00Z SUN WILL ALSO ADD AN
INCREASING LES COMPONENT TO THE MIX. WITH WSW LOW-LEVEL WINDS...BEST
CHC FOR INCREASING -SHSN WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW. SHARP CAA (MAX
850MB TEMP FALL IS AROUND 10C IN 6HR) AND ISALLOBARIC WIND ALIGNED
WITH GRADIENT WIND (6MB/3HR PRES RISE FOLLOWING FROPA) WILL LEAD TO
WINDY CONDITIONS AFTER FROPA. SW WIND DIRECTION IS NOT TYPICALLY THE
MOST FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR HIGH WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT WITH
850MB WINDS AROUND 45KT...SOME GUSTS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVY
CRITERIA...MAINLY IN THE 1-3HRS DURING THE ISALLOBARIC WIND PUSH.
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 30-40MPH SHOULD GENERALLY BE THE
RULE FOR A FEW HRS AFTER FROPA. IN COMBINATION WITH FALLING SFC
TEMPS W TO E THRU THE DAY...THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MUCH
COLDER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE TEMP FALL WILL BE MOST
SIGNIFICANT.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -16 TO -19C RANGE. LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING PERIOD OF LES AS GFS/NAM SHOW
MOISTURE PROFILE DEEPENING TO 10KFT OR MORE. WITH DEEP MOISTURE...
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS FALLING FIRMLY INTO THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...AND SFC TROF DRIFTING THRU THE AREA...THERE IS AN INCREASING
SIGNAL FOR MDT/HVY LES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP SOME RATHER
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW TO WATER RATIOS INCREASE TO
20-30 TO 1. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION WHICH WON'T
BE HANDLED WELL UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT. OVERALL...MODELS INDICATE
A W TO WSW WIND SAT EVENING AHEAD OF TROF TO SHIFT WNW/NW SUN
MORNING AS SFC TROF PASSES. WITH SFC TROF APPROACHING...WOULD
EXPECT SAT NIGHT WINDS TO HAVE MORE OF A WSW/SW COMPONENT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LAND BREEZE COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD BE ACTIVE
AS LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A STRONG
CONVERGENCE ZONE/HVY LES SETTING UP FROM AROUND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS
INTO THE KEWEENAW SAT NIGHT. THE MDT/HVY SNOW WOULD THEN EXPAND TO
INCLUDE WNW/NW FAVORED SNOW BELTS FOR A TIME SUN. AT THIS POINT...
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED LONGEST BY
MDT/HVY LES. CONSIDERED A WATCH FOR KEWEENAW/NRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS
WINDS MAY END UP MORE BACKED SAT NIGHT THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AHEAD
OF SFC TROF OR SFC TROF MAY PASS MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.

MON-THU...MOSTLY WEST WIND LES WILL CONTINUE. WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE...OPTED FOR LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD. TUE IS ONLY DAY THAT MAY END UP DRY ACROSS UPPER MI AS
WINDS MAY BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT LES OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
TIMING/TRACK/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK TO THE S OF THE INTENSIFYING POLAR VORTEX
AROUND HUDSON BAY. ALSO...RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVES
REMAINS VERY POOR. SO...THERE'S NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE
SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE AREA. IF ONE OF THE WAVES CAN AMPLIFY
SUFFICIENTLY...THEN BITTER COLD AIR WOULD PLUNGE INTO THE AREA.
WHETHER THAT HAPPENS REMAINS TO SEEN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACCOMPANIED BY VLIFR TO VFR VIS HAVE BEEN
COMMON...STREAMING IN ON VERY MOIST S FLOW. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE
BEEN POCKETS OF VFR VIS...MOST NOTABLY AT IWD THANKS TO THE
DOWNSLOPE WIND DIRECTION. CMX IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND...BUT WITH CEILINGS LIKELY KEEPING THE
SITE IN THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY WITH GUSTS
NEARING 25KTS AT IWD AND CMX AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS
OVER THE WEST HALF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KT FRI AFTERNOON AS
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING...EXPECT SSW WINDS
UNDER 20 KTS WINDS. BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE FROM THE PLAINS INTO NE MN AND TIGHTENS
THE GRADIENT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ON SAT AS A SHARP
COLD FRONT SLICES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE ARRIVAL OF
MUCH COLDER AIR RESULTS IN DECREASING STABILITY AND GREATER MIXING OF
THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE LAKE SURFACE. A GALE WATCH WAS EXPANDED AS
GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVER THE WRN LAKE AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG WINDS...COLDER AIR AND HIGHER WAVES WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
SPRAY AS WELL INTO SAT NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF LOW PRES TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE LATER ON TUE TUE AND NIGHT MIGHT RESULT IN W-SW WINDS
INCREASING TO GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ011>013.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ240>246-265>267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1231 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

MIZ001-003-121200-
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-
1231 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. EXPECT VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 3
MILES...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BEING REDUCED TO AROUND A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH SATURDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

MIZ002-004>007-009>011-084-085-121200-
ONTONAGON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
1231 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013 /1131 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. EXPECT VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 3
MILES...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BEING REDUCED TO AROUND A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE
EAST OF MUNISING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

MIZ012>014-121200-
MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
1231 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013 /1131 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. EXPECT VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 3
MILES...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS BEING REDUCED TO AROUND A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST OR WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-121200-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI-
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI-
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI-
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI-
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI-
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING
KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYALE NATIONAL PARK-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
1231 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013 /1131 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SEE THE LATEST OPEN WATER FORECAST OR
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

LMZ221-248-250-121200-
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI-
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-
1231 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE. SEE THE LATEST NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST OR
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST OR MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1027 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

MIZ001-003>007-010-014-084-085-112030-
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-IRON-
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...HOUGHTON...HANCOCK...
L'ANSE...GWINN...MARQUETTE...GRAND MARAIS...MUNISING...NEWBERRY...
IRON RIVER...MANISTIQUE...KENTON...SIDNAW...SENEY
1027 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013 /927 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013/

...AREAS OF FOG TODAY...

THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES...DRIZZLE...AND MELTING SNOW
IS HELPING CREATE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. VISIBILITIES
AROUND 3 MILES WILL BE COMMON...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BEING REDUCED TO
AROUND A QUARTER MILE OR LESS TODAY. THESE VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT TIMES TODAY...PARTICULARLY WHERE ICY SPOTS LINGER
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

IF DRIVING TODAY...SLOW DOWN AND PLAN EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR
DESTINATION.

KF