Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FESTER AS IT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS TAPPING SOME DECENT MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG... BUT
IS OTHERWISE SUFFERING FROM A LACK OF GOOD LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT... WHICH IS ACTUALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA HELPING ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP THINGS GOING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA... BUT WOULD
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH TO STRUGGLE AS IT TRIES TO KEEP
GOING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WILL BE THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...
WHICH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING... LIKELY EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE SHRA/TSRA FILL IN
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR... WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1500
J/KG AND DECENT FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CHANCES FOR PCPN
SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER TO THE EAST OF I-35. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK LIMITED WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY OUTRUNNING THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR... SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER... ALTHOUGH THERE/S CERTAINLY SOME CHANCE ALONG/EAST
OF I-35 GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST A NARROW WINDOW
OF BETTER SHEAR ON ITS WESTERN EDGE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU
WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND A DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT TO THE NORTH AND WEST...PUSHING
OVERHEAD FRIDAY. MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE CLOUD-
BEARING LAYER MAY ALSO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE REGION...
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. LIGHT QPF ON THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO HINT TOWARD THIS. THUS...INCREASED CLOUDS AND
WINDS...AND DECREASED TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FROM THE LAST FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE MIXED...BUT AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SO NEARBY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING AS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHES OUT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT OVER THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND. A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE STEERS WEAKENING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH. ONE SUCH SYSTEM
WILL LIMP THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF SAID
SYSTEM WILL TAKE PLACE AND LITTLE OR NO FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONLY LOW POPS.

WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MIDWEEK WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR RETURNING. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIONING OF A
SW-NW ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE EC FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE GFS. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING HIGHER POPS. EITHER
WAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...ASIDE FROM
WITHIN ANY TSRA. MUCH OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ACROSS WRN
MN AND ERN SD AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS MN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO WRN WI BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECISE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF GREATEST RAINFALL...SO DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE LAST SET OF TAFS. A PERIOD OF CLEARING IS
ANTICIPATED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING BEFORE MVFR
STRATOCU RETURNS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS FROM 17-20Z WITH THE COLD FROPA...
BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE A STRAY CELL APPROACH THE AIRPORT THIS
MORNING GIVEN THE CHAOTIC DEPICTION THIS MORNING ON RADAR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...ESP EARLY. NORTHWEST WIND 10-15G23 KT.
SAT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
327 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

MNZ041>044-047>051-054>059-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092-200830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-
SHERBURNE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-
WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-
327 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ045-052-053-060>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-200830-
KANABEC-ISANTI-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-CARVER-
SCOTT-DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WASECA-STEELE-FREEBORN-POLK-
BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
327 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG A COLD FRONT...
PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BORGHOFF

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