Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE HEAT HEADLINES THAT WERE IN PLACE. THE ONE MINOR TWEAK
WAS TO EXPAND THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO INCLUDE PIERCE AND PEPIN
COUNTIES IN WI...WHERE THE LATEST FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES SNEAK
TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. H925-850
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES...AND RANGE FROM +27C /WI/ TO +30C /WEST CENTRAL MN/ BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT 95 TO 100 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL BUT POSSIBLY WEST CENTRAL WI NEAR LADYSMITH.

AS FAR AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE DISMISSED
THE NAM SOLUTION /WHICH IS TOO WARM AND THEREFORE SPAWNS CONVECTION
TOO FREELY AND QUICKLY/...AND LEANED TOWARD THE HIRESARW
EAST...WHICH HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT/S CURRENTLY GOING ON. PER
SAID ARW SOLUTION...AND 08Z RADAR IMAGERY...DO EXPECT THE AREA OF
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO SHIFT INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI COUNTIES THIS MORNING. RELATED BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE.

MEANWHILE...ANTICIPATE A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WARM SECTOR/RIDGE AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE MPX CWFA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. HAVE INCLUDED 40-60 POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

OVERALL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FORECAST IS BECOMING CLEARER WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN/WI BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
DRIER DEW PTS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA...OR AT LEAST
LOWER THEM ENOUGH TO DROP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING BY TUESDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABV 90 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER DEW PTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AFTN HEAT INDICES TO HOLD BELOW 100 DEGREES...AND MORE
THAN LIKELY ARND 90 TO 95. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY. PAST WEDNESDAY...THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED IN TERMS OF ANOTHER HEAT WAVE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK...OR DOES THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST/SW OF THE UPPER MIDWEST?

DURING THE ONSET OF THE NEXT SURGE OF WARMER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
...BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE SW...AND SPREADING E/NE INTO THE EASTERN FA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND THE APPARENT
AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP MAY PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...AND IF ANY...WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND DIE OFF DURING THE MORNING AS THE CAP
STRENGTHENS.

THE CHG OVER NEXT WEEKEND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST EC IS NOW
DEPICTING A STRONGER SHRTWV RUNNING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND
DIVING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
A COOLER FORECAST AS THE BULK OF THE HEAT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE EC...BUT NOT AS STRONG ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE...ALTHOUGH
WEAKER THAN BEFORE...ARE MORE IN LINE OF CONTINUING THE MEAN RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ESE THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KEAU VICINITY AFTER 12Z THROUGH
15Z. ADDITIONAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN SITES /KAXN-KSTC/...SHIFTING EAST AND
REACHING KRNH-KEAU OVERNIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF KMSP...AND ESPECIALLY
KRWF. SSW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY SSW AOB 10 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WIND ENE 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. SHRA/TS POSSIBLE. WIND SE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>053.

WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ024-026.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-
     023-025-027-028.

&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
271200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
356 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES
TO RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS EVENING.

JLT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

WIZ015-016-027-261230-
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-RUSK-
625 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN BARRON
AND RUSK COUNTIES...AND MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY FROM
630 AM THROUGH 730 AM CDT...

AT 622 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHELL
LAKE TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LADYSMITH TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JUMP
RIVER. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  WEYERHAEUSER.
  BARRONETT.
  ISLAND LAKE.
  RICE LAKE.
  HOLCOMBE.
  CANTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4537 9076 4537 9091 4512 9092 4533 9173
      4564 9201 4564 9069 4561 9066 4538 9067
TIME...MOT...LOC 1124Z 328DEG 19KT 4566 9197 4535 9134
          4529 9063

LS