Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
307 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH THE GFS 21.12
500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED AN AREA OF ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE MONSOONAL RIDGE
WHICH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO CUTOFF LOWS. THE EASTERN LOW
LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WAS BECOMING MORE OF A
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE...WHILE THE WESTERN LOW WAS SPINNING UP THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FOR THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG
UP FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY JUST SOUTH OF MN AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
THEREFORE... KEPT SOME SMALL POPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG I-90. HAVING SOME POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH OVER
NIGHT RESULTED IN MORE CLOUDINESS IN THE GRIDS ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTH. CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING
AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH EARLY
ON THURSDAY... A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IS INDICATED WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40 DEGREE DEW POINTS COVERING CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES
AND WEST CENTRAL WI BY MID AFTERNOON. USED SEVERAL BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON THURSDAY... WHICH
PUSHED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES WITH AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WITH 30 TO 40
PERCENT TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD ACROSS IOWA...AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING.
KEPT MN/WI DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN FORCING FOR
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND H850
THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BE THE
FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN CONCERT WITH A WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE
THAT IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOONAL RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. H925 WINDS AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF THE NAM12 21.12 SHOW A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WITH 500
GM/KGS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE HIGH VALUES ARE SUPPORTED BY THE
GFS 21.12...WHICH HAS 35KTS AND 450 GM/KGS. IN ADDITION...PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5 - 1.9 INCHES. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
THE THERMAL GRADIENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL WITH THE SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION NOSE OF THE H925 JET IS IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITHOUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR ISENTROPIC ASCENT IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO GET DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MADISON...THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS...AND EAU CLAIRE. INSTEAD THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY JUST ESTABLISH A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND BRING NEAR RECORD HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY H850 TEMPS OF 20+C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN CONJUNCTURE WITH 500MB
590DM HEIGHTS. BOTH THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF 21.12 BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CWA. THEREFORE HAVE TRIMMED OF POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AS THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. PROVIDED THAT
THE CONVECTION DOES REMAIN TO THE NORTH...THE THERMAL PARAMETERS
DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS ISSUANCE ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO IMPACT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY TURNED QUICKLY NORTH NORTH AND WEST OF
THE METRO AREA...AND THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE HAVE
DIMINISHED. THIS AREA WILL CONTEND WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE METRO...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...WITH EAU CLAIRE HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA AND WINDS WILL ALL TURN TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW...BEFORE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TONIGHT WHICH WILL THWART
FOG CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

KMSP...FRONT IS CLEARING THE AIRFIELD AT THIS TIME...SO THE WIND
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO NORTHWEST WITHIN AN HOUR TWO...AND CONTINUE
TO TURN THIS EVENING TO NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES HAVE REALLY DIMINISHED AND THE
AIRFIELD WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY THUNDER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW ONCE THE MVFR CIGS MOVE ON THIS AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. NE WIND 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. SCHC OF SHRA/TSRA. SE WIND 5 TO 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. S WIND 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JRB
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...SPD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
157 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

MNZ053-060>063-067>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
221900-
CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-
DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
157 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073-221900-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-
MEEKER-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-REDWOOD-
157 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
418 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             CAMERON                 45.40N 91.74W
08/21/2013  M1.00 INCH       BARRON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

WIZ027-212200-
CHIPPEWA-
421 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CHIPPEWA COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLOOMER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BLOOMER.
  EAGLETON.
  JIM FALLS.
  BATEMAN.

LAT...LON 4507 9107 4488 9123 4507 9164 4522 9151
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 299DEG 17KT 4510 9146