Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
649 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

POTENT TSTM COMPLEX THAT PUSHED THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG SEEMS TO
HAVE ROBBED THE ATMOSPHERE OF VALUABLE INSTABILITY WHILE LEAVING
LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE THAT IS PREVENTING MUCH RELOADING GOING ON.
IN ADDITION...LESSER WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH A MORE STABLE PROFILE
INCOMING FROM THE W WITH DRIER NW WINDS HAVE GREATLY REDUCED
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING THRU TNGT. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND SPC...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE MIDDAY
SWODY1 UPDATE WAS SHIFTED WELL OFF TO THE E...JUST CONTAINING THE
WI PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA BUT THAT WAS MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO
ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. FROM THE EARLY AFTN HOURS ON
OUT...CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE EVEN LESS /ALBEIT NOT QUITE
ZERO/. IN ADDITION...CHCS FOR SEEING SHWRS AND WEAK TSTMS ARE NOT
THAT GREAT SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT
FOR THE REST OF TDA INTO THIS EVE...WITH PRECIP SHIFTING OUT OF
THE MPX CWFA BY ARND MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
TNGT THRU TMRW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR WED. TEMPS TDA
HAVE BEEN TRICKY DUE TO THE MRNG CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY A VARIETY
OF WIND SHIFTS. BY LATE AFTN...WINDS WILL SETTLE ON W TO NW AND
EVENTUALLY ALL AREAS WILL SEE NW WIND TNGT THAT WILL PERSIST THRU
TMRW. WITHIN THIS NW FLOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AIR. ALREADY SEEING
AS SUCH IN ERN ND WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE 50S AND SUSTAINED
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 MPH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE
REST OF THIS AFTN IN THE LOW-MID 80S THEN FALL OFF NICELY TNGT
WITHIN THE NW FLOW TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. FOLLOWING THE COOLER
NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE MILD HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ON
WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THURSDAY WILL MARK THE START OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID/UPPER
RIDGE...THAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOCAL AREA....WITH NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE USHERING IN MORE HUMID AIR...WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S BY FRIDAY...AND WELL INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENSUING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY 06Z
SATURDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO OVER 2 INCHES /200
PERCENT OF NORMAL/. AS THE TROUGH LAYS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES APPEAR QUITE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...BUT WITH ELEVATED DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...IT WILL FEEL HUMID REGARDLESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

ALTHOUGH THE LEAD COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...A SECONDARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD TO
NORTHERN SD. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS NW
OF KABR. SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS ARE FOR THE STORMS TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SD. OTHERWISE...BREEZY NW WINDS
TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS EARLY ON TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SOME SCT-BKN CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 035-045 RANGE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO GUST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SCT CU IS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH A NEGATIVE CU
RULE.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. GUSTS
EARLY ON THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON NEAR 20 KNOTS. FEW-SCT035-045 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS S 5 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 10-15KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. WINDS
      S 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
101100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
542 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BOUTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
943 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

WIZ027-028-100345-
CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
943 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CHIPPEWA AND EAU CLAIRE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...

AT 941 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF BLOOMER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  EAGLETON.
  JIM FALLS.
  BATEMAN.
  CADOTT.
  BOYD.
  STANLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4501 9163 4523 9151 4511 9091 4484 9092
      4483 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 286DEG 29KT 4507 9133

SPD