Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR
A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE TAPERED POPS OFF GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SREF/HRRR/ARW MODELS THEN ALL DEPICT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT
INDICES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AND
STRONG JET ALOFT. THE TROUGH IS SHOWN BY ALL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY ARE INCREASING. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS TO WESTERN MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF THE FA BY
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IS
WITH MORE UPPER TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH. ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN
COULD BE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THESE PERIODS. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM IS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S. A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

A LOT OF THINGS TO MONITOR THIS MORNING. THERE IS FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AT KSTC...KEAU...KRNH - ALL OF WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE
MIXING DOWN AND FOG IN A LITTLE LONGER THIS MORNING. THEN IT COULD
BE MORE 5-6 BR/HZ FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THAT BATCH
OF STORMS NOW CLEARING KRWF SHOULD LARGELY MISS THE TAF SITES AS
IT HEADS FOR KMKT. LASTLY...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MN AND MOVING INTO
WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...BUT
FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED THUNDER AT KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU.

KMSP...

SEE NO REASON WE WON'T HANG ONTO THE LIGHT 3-5 MILE FOG FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS /THROUGH THE HIGHER MORNING VOLUME/...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MUGGY SURFACE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND ALSO GIVEN THE SUN
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX AS MUCH WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS NOW OVERHEAD.
EVENTUALLY THE VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DEVELOPS A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS RIGHT
OVERHEAD OF KMSP OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT. THE GOOD NEW
IS THE STORMS WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE HOURS AND WILL BE IN WI
BEFORE THE EVENING PUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS WNW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC SHRA/TS WITH MVFR. WINDS NW AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
420 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

MNZ041>045-047>051-054>059-064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093-270930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-
STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
420 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ052-053-060>063-070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-270930-
ISANTI-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-
POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
420 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN... WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
745 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

WIZ014>016-023>028-261400-
POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...
BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...
PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...PEPIN...
CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
745 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT HOUR...

IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT NUMEROUS CRASHES HAVE OCCURRED ON
INTERSTATE 94 DUE TO DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE
FALLEN TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN SPOTS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT. FOG
PATCHES MAY BECOME QUITE DENSE IN SHORT DISTANCES SO BE PREPARED
TO ENCOUNTER MUCH SLOWER TRAFFIC IN THESE PATCHES. THE FOG WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 9 AM.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
809 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

MNZ091>093-261400-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-
809 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

AT 804 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLUE EARTH...OR 28 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MADELIA. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DELAVAN.
  EASTON.
  WELLS.
  BARODA.
  WALTERS.
  KIESTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.
THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND PONDING OF WATER ON
AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4351 9363 4350 9416 4385 9426 4385 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 305DEG 23KT 4381 9391

BORGHOFF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1047 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N FROST               43.61N 93.93W
06/22/2013                   FARIBAULT          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCATTERED LARGE BRANCHES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 254 BETWEEN
            FROST AND INTERSTATE 90.

0125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WELLS                   43.74N 93.73W
06/22/2013                   FARIBAULT          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN.

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1214 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 AM     HAIL             CHISAGO CITY            45.37N 92.89W
06/26/2013  E0.25 INCH       CHISAGO            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

MNZ053-063-WIZ014-261800-
CHISAGO-POLK-WASHINGTON-
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

AT 1212 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOREST LAKE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH. PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM AT 1214 PM
IN SOUTHERN CHISAGO COUNTY.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SHAFER.
  OSCEOLA.
  DRESSER.
  CENTURIA.
  WANDEROOS.
  DERONDA.

LAT...LON 4552 9235 4523 9229 4524 9302 4541 9301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 259DEG 24KT 4535 9273