Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

STRONG TO SVR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
AMPLE MLCAPE OF 1000-1500J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARND 35-40
KTS ACROSS . THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END AFT 1Z/01 AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHRA ACTIVITY OVER
ND/SD...WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION
OF SHRA ISOLD STORMS SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. NO OTHER CHGS EXPECTED
THRU SATURDAY AFTN WITH NUMEROUS SHRA ACROSS THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE POTENT UPPER LOW THAT LINGERED
OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN WILL OPEN INTO TROUGH AND PIVOT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SAT EVE. THIS WILL SWEEP THE SFC LOW ON WITH IT...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. ISOLD TO SCATTERED
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW TAKES HOLD. NW FLOW CONTINUES THRU SUN NIGHT AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES THRU THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN COOLER/DRIER/CLEAR CONDITIONS
SUN THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MON. CLOUDS RETURN LATE DAY MON ALONG
WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHWRS IN WRN MN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SLIGHTLY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S WHILE HIGHS HOLD IN THE
60S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
DRIFT E FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN FROM MON
NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY TUE THRU WED ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA. ONCE THE CUTOFF
LOW EJECTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA THU THRU FRI...KEEPING LOW CHCS FOR PRECIP IN
THE FCST. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MUCH OF THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN COOL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WHICH ON AVERAGE WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S WHICH IS
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SHRA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SE MN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE FA...BUT RNH/MSP/EAU DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING
STRONGER STORMS AS EARLY AS 1-2 PM. EAU HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF
SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEFORE 1Z/01. ACROSS WESTERN MN...THE
UPPER LOW HAS NEARLY STALLED. BUT THIS LOW IS EXPECT TO SLOWLY
FILL AND MOVE TO THE E-NE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IFR/MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SHRA WILL OCCUR NEAR AND UNDER THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF -SHRA OCCURRING DURING THE
TYPICAL MID AFTN...TO LATE EVENING HRS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST. MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WILL LIKELY RISE TO LOW END VFR IN
WESTERN MN...BUT LOWER ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
TRACKS E-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. TIMING OF THE INITIAL TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN/WC WI WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN
THE WEAKENING CAP BREAKS. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...TSRA COULD
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 1-2 PM BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL
RUNS. SFC WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THRU 21Z...THEN DECREASE AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW/W...AND EVENTUALLY NW AND
INCREASE IN SPD.

KMSP...

BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 19-22Z...WITH
ONLY SHRA AFT 22Z. ANY TSRA THAT DUE DEVELOP HAVE THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING VERY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS...AND SMALL HAIL. WILL
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN AWW IF NEEDED. THIS EVENING WILL BE
VFR WITH WINDS DECREASE AND SHIFTING TO THE SW UNDER 6 KTS. BY
12-15Z...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W...AND NW AND INCREASE DURING
THE AFTN. -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFT 15Z/01 AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AIRPORT TERMINAL. VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO MVFR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AIRPORT SITE OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT EVENING...MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS NW AT 10G20KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNW AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS ESE AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

MNZ041>045-047>062-064>069-073>076-082>084-091-092-011700-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-YELLOW MEDICINE-
RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-
LE SUEUR-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-
1151 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO THURSDAY. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AREA. HOWEVER...AREAS EAST OF THE METRO AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 1 PM.

MNZ063-070-077-078-085-093-WIZ014>016-023>028-011700-
WASHINGTON-DAKOTA-RICE-GOODHUE-STEELE-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
1151 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS IN PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO THURSDAY. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AREA. HOWEVER...AREAS EAST OF THE METRO AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 1 PM.

JLT

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