Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

NARROW AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ON RADAR
FROM TWIN CITIES SOUTH INTO EASTERN FREEBORN COUNTY. HRRR HANDLED
INTIATION OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MN VERY WELL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...SO USED SAME TO
HELP PROJECT CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
USED GFS40 THETA E ADVECTION TO SORT OUT TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF PCPN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THROTTLED BACK SOMEWHAT ON
QPF VALUES OVER PORTION OF THE FA DUE TO SLACKENING POP CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. LOCAL WRF MODEL STILL INDICATING
VERY IMPRESSIVE 850MB TRANSPORT VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF
THE FA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SLACKENING VALUES
NOTED OVER SW PORTION OF CWA BY 06Z. WITH THAT SAID ANTICIPATE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR REMAINDER OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REGION WILL BE EAST OF A LINE...FROM ST CLOUD TO
HUTCHINSON...TO WINNEBAGO. 50H LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH SFC CYCLONE BY MON/12Z TIME FRAME
ABOVE SE SODAK. SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE INTO SE NODAK BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR POPS CLEARLY INDICATED OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF FA MONDAY AFTN...IN ASSOCIATION WITH BEST
THETA E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH POSITION OF RIGHT REAR QUAD RELATED
TO 130KT JET CORE ABOVE NORTHERN ONTARIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

BRIEF DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING STORMS. STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN SOUTH DAKOTA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DRIFT EAST...STILL OVER MN ON
WEDNESDAY. TROUGH AXIS SWINGS BY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
HAVE THUS ENDED MENTION OF STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED AND HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS. UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MERIT KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY IN THE EAST. THEN
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MAKES A GLANCING BLOW
AND WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S FROM MILLE LACS LAKE TO RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH.
SOME VARIATION IN MODELS AS TO HOW LONG THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MOVING EAST
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS CATALYST FOR EARLY MORNING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY CURRENTLY TREKKING INTO NORTHERN
MN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE INITIATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER SW MN AND WESTERN IOWA. PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED
THIS AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z MSP UPPER AIR SOUNDING CONFIRMING
THIS FORECAST. USED HRRR MODEL WITH NEEDED TWEAKING TO ADVECT
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO TAF REGION MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTN-INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CANBY TO LAKEVILLE TO EAU CLAIRE.
STILL MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHOWERY TYPE VARIETY. LOOK
FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MAINLY SHOWERS SHOULD REAPPEAR OVER THE TAF REGION
AFTER ABOUT 08Z...AND CONTINUE UP UNTIL ABOUT 14Z. COULD
EASILY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH KAXN VFR. LOOK FOR A THIRD ROUND
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTER 19-20Z TIME FRAME ON MONDAY.
MODERATE SE FLOW WILL RELAX TO LIGHT SE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH
A MORE MDT SOUTHERLY TO EVEN SSW BENT ANTICIPATED BY 20/17Z
AND THEN LASTING THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

KMSP...ATMOSPHERE IS BEING PRIMED WITH HEATING FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MARCH THROUGH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS.
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE AROUND 08Z
TIME FRAME...WITH SLACKENING LAPSE RATES POINTING TO MAINLY
SHOWERS. MDT SE FLOW WILL DECOUPLE TO BELOW 10KTS BY 03Z...AND
RETURN TO MDT SE FLOW BY 14Z. BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE SCT SHOWER
SITUATION WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z TIME FRAME
...WITH ONCE AGAIN OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR/MVFR CIGS. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. S-SSE WIND 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR/MVFR CIGS. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. E-NE WIND 5 KTS.
WED...VFR/MVFR CIGS. SHRA LIKELY. NE WIND 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>053-
     057>063-066>070-075>078-084-085-093.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...AJZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073-074-200900-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-
MEEKER-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-REDWOOD-BROWN-
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY
FOR PROLONGED PERIODS. THERE IS A RISK THAT FLOODING...OR EVEN FLASH
FLOODING...MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND ABNORMALLY HIGH TOTALS THUS FAR
THIS MONTH. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RISES IN RIVERS...
STREAMS...AND MAY ALSO CAUSE URBAN FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COVERAGE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RISES IN RIVERS...
STREAMS...AND MAY ALSO CAUSE URBAN FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MNZ053-060>063-067>070-075>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
200900-
CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-
DAKOTA-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-
STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-
PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY
FOR PROLONGED PERIODS. THERE IS A RISK THAT FLOODING...OR EVEN FLASH
FLOODING...MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND ABNORMALLY HIGH TOTALS THUS FAR
THIS MONTH. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RISES IN RIVERS...
STREAMS...AND MAY ALSO CAUSE URBAN FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COVERAGE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY.
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RISES IN RIVERS... STREAMS...AND
MAY ALSO CAUSE URBAN FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WASECA                  44.08N 93.50W
05/19/2013  U0.00 INCH       WASECA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREETS UNDER WATER

&&

LRS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>