Frost Advisory 5, NWS Twin Cities, MN

893 
WWUS73 KMPX 170852
NPWMPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013

...FROST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

.A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE ADVISORY INCLUDES RUSK... CHIPPEWA AND
EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES... INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF LADYSMITH...
CORNELL AND AUGUSTA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF FROST OCCURRING. THE FROST WILL DAMAGE OR
COULD KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT IS NOT GIVEN PROTECTION FROM
THE COLD.

WIZ016-027-028-171300-
/O.CON.KMPX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130917T1300Z/
RUSK-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LADYSMITH...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...
EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

* TEMPERATURE: MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

* IMPACTS: THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN LOW 
  LYING AREAS...WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST. THE FROST WILL 
  DAMAGE OR COULD KILL TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT IS 
  NOT GIVEN PROTECTION FROM THE COLD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

057 
WWUS73 KMPX 171135
NPWMPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013


WIZ016-027-028-171245-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130917T1300Z/
RUSK-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LADYSMITH...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...
EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY. 



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
647 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

A LOT MORE MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS IA/NE/SD THAN SOME OF THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS DEPICTED...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WERE STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC MN AS OF 3 PM.

THE AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING NE ACROSS THE FA WILL BE
CRITICAL AS TO WHETHER SHRA OR JUST SPRINKLES DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE
FA. AS OF 3 PM...A VERY SHARP SHRTWV WAS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY NEAR
THE CO/NE/KS BORDER. THIS SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ACROSS NE/IA
BY TUESDAY AFTN. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALONG THIS WAVE...WILL CREATE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW FAR
NORTH IS DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE WHICH SOME MODELS
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS IA AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS IS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS MN ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE OVERNIGHT.
WILL BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND CONTINUE WITH 20-30% ALONG THE
IA BORDER...WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
WC WI. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR THE IA/MN
BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT ARRIVES WITH INCREASING 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
AS THE LLJ NOSES INTO THE REGION AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. WHILE INSTABILITY DOESN/T APPEAR FANTASTIC...BEST
LI/S DO GRADUALLY BECOME NEGATIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT...SO THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR SLIGHTLY BETTER FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL WI...SO HIGH CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED THERE.

WEDNESDAY BRINGS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...H85
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO OVER +20C. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...VS. A MORE FAVORABLE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...STILL THINK LOW/MID 80S ARE ACHIEVABLE IN MN
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MID/UPPER 70S WILL BE MORE
COMMON ELSEWHERE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH NOSES INTO
THE MPX CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. WHILE MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY SLOTTING DURING THAT
TIME FRAME...30-40 POPS ARE WARRANTED GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTICS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM
EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVE
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/INSTABILITY
ARE RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT HOWEVER.

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RESULTS ON FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BRISK...WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH APPEARING POSSIBLE.

THE WEEKEND BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TIMING DIFFERS A BIT...BOTH BRING A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE
AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

MAIN CONCERN THIS CYCLE IS HOW FAST THE MVFR AND LOWER CIGS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAKE THERE WAY INTO THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT KRWF AND KAXN WILL BECOME MVFR BETWEEN
12Z-15Z.. WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS THINKING. IT SHOULD
TAKE AWHILE FOR THE MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING SE. NONE THE LESS...
CEILINGS SHOULD DETERIORATE BETWEEN 21Z-24Z AT KSTC AND KMSP AND
AFTER 18/00Z AT KRNH AND KEAU. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR TUESDAY EVENING
ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. SE WINDS TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 12-18 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS 18-23 KNOTS.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. MVFR CIGS ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT
THINKING AROUND 21Z...THEN PERHAPS LOWERING TO IFR TUESDAY NIGHT.
SE WINDS TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 12G18 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA. WINDS S 10 KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
102 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
171815-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
102 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.