Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Twin Cities, MN

191 
WGUS83 KMPX 211542
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1042 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

MNC041-121-145-149-153-211700-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130621T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DOUGLAS MN-POPE MN-STEARNS MN-STEVENS MN-TODD MN-
1042 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN TODD...NORTHERN
STEVENS...NORTHWESTERN STEARNS...POPE AND SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1042 AM CDT...SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SECONDARY 
ROADS PERSISTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...GLENWOOD...
LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS...ALBANY AND SAUK CENTRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON
FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

&&

LAT...LON 4608 9502 4604 9473 4577 9466 4577 9428
      4553 9445 4542 9492 4541 9549 4550 9580
      4553 9616 4576 9608 4575 9537

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
522 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

WE WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SHORT AND SWEET. IT HAS BEEN A LONG
NIGHT. A MATURE MCS IS NOW IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER TRACKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF MN AND INTO WI
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW REGIME ACROSS MN/WI OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. 925MB-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPLODED LAST NIGHT AND WE SAW THE RESULT WITH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE
WITH THE UPCOMING SHORT TERM PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE
MN/SD BORDER AND MARCHING THAT EAST WITH TIME. MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY VALUES WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WE RELOAD TODAY AND
THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION /CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS/ WE LOOK AT FOCUS MORE OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IN
NE/IA. THIS WOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/.
ADMITTEDLY SO...THESE THREE RUNS DO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FASTER. WE WILL HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE
OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION...THAT COULD BE A TRIGGER
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY...SO FLASH
FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A MAJOR THREAT ALONG WITH THE HAIL AND
WIND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AFTER THIS MORNING. SO
IN SUMMARY...GET READY TO DO THIS ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

POTENT RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WRN CONUS WILL PROMOTE PROGRESSIVE SWLY FLOW OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY REGION. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH PWATS NEARING 2
INCHES...WILL BE COMMON SAT THRU MON. SEVERAL SHTWV DISTURBANCES
FLYING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTER
OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN WITH THE WFO MPX CWFA IN THE WARM
SECTOR SPELLS ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS THRU THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH...WITH MLCAPES IN THE 3000-4000
J/KG RANGE...AND THE SAT PERIOD MAY START OUT WITH AN MCS AND/OR
CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXITING THE AREA. WIDESCALE LIFT...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ENHANCED BULK SHEAR WILL AGAIN PROMOTE THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS BY SAT EVE INTO SAT NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL
THEN PRESENT ITSELF FOR SUN AS THE UPR TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E...
HELPING DROP H5 HEIGHTS WHILE ENHANCING MID- AND UPR-LEVEL
JETTING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY WELL AGAIN CONTINUE FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN AGAIN BECOME REINVIGORATED
FROM MIDDAY HEATING TO SPARK LATE AFTN AND EVE TSTMS FOR SUN. THE
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL AGAIN PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT GOING INTO MON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
ALASKA THAT WILL DROP ACROSS WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED
THROUGH THU. THIS WILL THEN CREATE THE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN
THAT WILL SHOVE A LOW PRES CENTER NEWD ACRS MN INTO THE GRT LAKES
WED WITH THE UPR LOW TRAILING IT THRU THU. MID TO HIGH CHC RANGE
POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
AGAIN CHCS FOR STRONG TSTMS ALONG WITH HVY RAIN. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
LWR 70S. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LWR
70S WHICH MEANS HEAT INDEX VALUES UP INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE JUST NORTHWEST
OF KAXN...STRETCHING FROM NEAR PARK RAPIDS TO ABERDEEN. THIS LINE
SHOULD BEGIN TO BOW SOUTHEAST VERY SOON AND PASS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES BY 12Z. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MN AND
SPREAD QUICKLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS OR MORE
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR IN
AND BEHIND THE STORMS FOR A TIME WITH IFR VSBYS IN THE STORMS. THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO VFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING IN THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER BOW IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

KMSP...STILL EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
IN THE 08Z-10Z TIME FRAME. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 50
KNOTS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS. SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS WITH THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING. MORE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING OR LOCATION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...TSRA LIKELY. VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. WINDS SE 10 KTS
SUN...TSRA LIKELY. VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS.
MON...CHC TSRA. VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. WINDS S 5-10KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
AREA...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE
PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SUCH
THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH MEANS WE WILL REMAIN IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS SETUP HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR
GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN STREAMING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 70 DEGREES WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL AID IN DEVELOPING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES. THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSE THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
MOIST GIVEN THE WET SPRING...WHICH ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. THROUGH NEXT WEEK...RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE
FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD TO RISES ON MAIN STEM
RIVERS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>044-
     047>050-054>058.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
HYDROLOGY...JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
808 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
211830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
808 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE SECONDARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE COVERAGE AREA. THE GREATEST HAZARDS WILL BE
HAIL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AT
TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW STILLWATER        45.00N 92.87W
06/21/2013  M55 MPH          WASHINGTON         MN   AWOS

            MEASURED AT LAKE ELMO AIRPORT

&&

FRANKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND GST     NEW RICHMOND            45.12N 92.54W
06/21/2013  M51 MPH          ST. CROIX          WI   ASOS

&&

FRANKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
440 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

MNZ041>045-047>051-054>059-064-065-073-211200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...
FOLEY...ELK RIVER...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...
LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...REDWOOD FALLS
440 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS...

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
BEHIND THE STORMS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES AND MAY LAST THROUGH 7
AM CDT. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A WAKE LOW WHICH COMMONLY
FORMS BEHIND STRONG LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WINDS MAY STILL
BE CAPABLE OF BLOWING AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS AND MAY PERSIST FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
520 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KINGSTON                45.20N 94.31W
06/21/2013                   MEEKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
525 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

MNZ052-053-060>063-066>070-074>078-WIZ014-023-024-211300-
ISANTI-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-
CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-POLK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MINNEAPOLIS...
BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...
SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...
FARIBAULT...RED WING...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...HUDSON...
NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT
525 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS...

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED INTO FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...STRONG WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE WINDS WILL REACH
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES AND MAY LAST THROUGH 8 AM CDT.
THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A WAKE LOW WHICH COMMONLY FORMS
BEHIND STRONG LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WINDS MAY STILL BE
CAPABLE OF BLOWING AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS AND MAY PERSIST FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ST CLOUD                45.55N 94.17W
06/21/2013                   STEARNS            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SOME 1-2 FEET DIAMETER TREES SNAPPED AT TRUNK, PEELED OFF
            ALONG TRUNK. FEW ENTIRELY UPROOTED. POWER OUT THROUGHOUT
            EASTERN ST CLOUD.

&&

CARLYON