Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Twin Cities, MN

257 
WGUS83 KMPX 080341
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1041 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

MNC151-082030-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130408T2030Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SWIFT MN-
1041 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

...FLOOD WARNING FOR AN ICE JAM AND SNOW MELT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN SWIFT COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT MONDAY...

* AT 1028 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED AN ICE   
  JAM DEVELOPING ALONG THE CHIPPEWA RIVER NEAR BENSON...WHICH IS     
  CAUSING THE RIVER TO RISE IN THE BENSON AREA. THIS ICE JAM ALONG   
  WITH RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOW MELT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING      
  ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9540 4533 9537 4532 9548 4532 9557
      4519 9564 4521 9571 4526 9573 4533 9566
      4541 9569 4541 9564 4536 9561 4536 9547
      4541 9545

$$

BORGHOFF

244 
WGUS83 KMPX 081634
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1134 AM CDT MON APR 8 2013

MNC151-081625-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FA.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130408T2030Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SWIFT MN-
1134 AM CDT MON APR 8 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN SWIFT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LATEST REPORTS FROM THE SWIFT COUNTY SHERIFF IS WHILE THE ICE JAM IS 
STILL IN PLACE BETWEEN US 12 AND AND COUNTY ROUTE 9...WATER IS 
MOVING UNDERNEATH THE JAM. HENCE...AT THIS TIME...WATER IS NOT 
INCREASING IN HEIGHT BEHIND THE JAM AND THE IMMEDIATE RISK OF 
FLOODING WITH THE JAM IS NOT A THREAT AT THIS TIME. 

HENCE THE THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

INDIVIDUALS IN THIS AREA HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR QUICKLY 
CHANGING RIVER LEVELS IF THE ICE JAM CHANGES AND STARTS TO BLOCK THE 
WATER FROM PASSING UNDERNEATH...WATER LEVELS UPSTREAM OF THE JAM 
COULD RISE QUICKLY OR WATER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM COULD RISE QUICKLY 
ONCE THE ICE JAM BREAKS FREE.  

IF YOU OBSERVE A RAPIDLY CHANGING ICE CONDITIONS OR 
FLOODING...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4541 9540 4533 9537 4532 9548 4532 9557
      4519 9564 4521 9571 4526 9573 4533 9566
      4541 9569 4541 9564 4536 9561 4536 9547
      4541 9545

$$

DFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
306 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THE 09Z SPC SREF ONE
HOUR THUNDER GUIDANCE DOES INCREASE AN AREA OF INCREASING PROBS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  BEST LI'S AND H85 LI GRADIENT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH VARIOUS HIRES MODELS INDICATE
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ASSOCIATED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLD
THUNDER IN THIS REGION.  CRITICAL THICKNESS BECOMES DEFINED MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
REMAINS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED HOWEVER.

AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN SYSTEM FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH
ORGANIZES AND DEVELOPS SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES
REGION.  MAY SEE A SHOWER/SPRINKLE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS UPPER
JET EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS.
SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER IOWA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIRES
NNM WRF BACKING AWAY FROM SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT (SEVERE RIGHT
MOVER) VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  MAY BE TOO WARM NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MID/UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PUSHES THE ATTENDANT SOUTHERN
PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE
STILL NOTABLY VARIABLE WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE 07.12Z NAM DID TREND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...WHICH TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO
TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI. THIS WOULD PLACE CENTRAL MN/WI IN A VERY
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF WHICH
COULD FALL AS SNOW. PLOWABLE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT...GIVEN EXPECTED LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE ONE HALF TO
NEAR 1.5 INCH RANGE OVER THE TWO DAY PERIOD.

THURSDAY WILL BRING GRADUALLY ENDING PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
SHIFTS EAST...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL SIGNAL COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID
30S...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BRING CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY WEATHER...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE.

YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND...AS DEPICTED BY BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THERE ARE STILL TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO BE THE WET DAY OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE THIS WILL BE ANOTHER EVENT WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SOME EROSION
NOTED OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST ENDS OF THE CLOUD AREA. EARLIER
PIREP HAD CLOUD DECK AROUND 2K FEET THICK. MODEL TREND CONTINUE
TO INDICATE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH. DO
ANTICIPATE VFR DEVELOPING MOST AREAS THROUGH 20Z-21Z. NEXT ISSUE
REMAINS TIMING OF INCOMING -RA/-SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA. PREVIOUS
TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA MOVING FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT. CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AGAIN BY 06Z IN THE WEST
AND AFTER 06Z TO THE EAST AS THE RAIN MOVES BACK IN. 09Z SPC SREF
HOURLY THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING THREAT OF AT
LEAST SOME ISOLD THUNDER LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MN
06Z-12Z PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS AT THIS TIME
WONT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. THIS EXITS TO THE
EAST MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA INTO THE
DAY MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
MINNESOTA. COULD SEE LONG PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST/EAST
DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

KMSP...CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH ABOUT 20Z...WITH VFR INTO
THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE RAIN THREAT...WHICH APPEARS TO BEGIN
AROUND 03Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBSY DEVELOPING BY 06Z WITH IFR
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH BY 12Z. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDER MOVE IN 06-11Z PERIOD AS WELL. NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. ACTIVITY RIDES EAST MONDAY
MORNING WITH IFR LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...MVFR OR LOWER WITH WIDELY SCT SHRA. WIND ENE 6-8 KTS.
TUE...MVFR BECOMING IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -RA/-SN. WIND NE 14G22 KTS.
WED...IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WITH -RASN BR. WIND NE 10-15KTS.|

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1238 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
081200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1238 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MINOR RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.