Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Twin Cities, MN

906 
WGUS83 KMPX 312155
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

MNC037-312207-
/O.EXP.KMPX.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130331T2200Z/
/00000.0.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAKOTA MN-
455 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN DAKOTA COUNTY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT HAS SLOWED OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED SUFFICIENTLY TO 
ALLOW THE WARNING TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED 
ROADS...TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.

LAT...LON 4478 9305 4483 9305 4484 9301 4477 9301
      4478 9289 4473 9276 4469 9273 4463 9274
      4462 9280 4454 9280 4454 9292 4451 9294
      4452 9302 4449 9303

$$

BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
621 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
PRIMARY CDFNT HAS PASSED INTO ERN WI...NRN IL AND SRN IA WHILE
SECONDARY CDFNT LINGERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS
SECONDARY CDFNT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SE ACRS MN AND WI
TDA...MOVING WITHIN DEEP NW FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ERN CANADA AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER SERN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA WILL BE SCOURED AWAY FROM
THE SECONDARY FNT MOVES THROUGH...AND THIS FRONT WILL COMMENCE
STRONG CAA THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...THEN SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THIS EVE THRU
TNGT BEHIND THE FNT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE LARGE DIURNALS
FROM MIN TEMPS THIS MRNG TO HIGHS THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 WITHIN THE CWFA...THEN CAA WILL
KICK IN STRONGLY TNGT AND DROP TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE END OF MARCH. LOWS TNGT WILL FALL INTO THE 10-20 DEGREE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN ON MON...REMAINING IN PLACE AND
EVEN REINFORCING ITSELF THRU WED. THOUGH THIS WILL KEEP THE FREE
FROM PRECIPITATION THROUGH WED...THE TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS POLAR AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THE FEEL OF WINTER GOING
INTO EARLY APRIL. H85 TEMPS MON-TUE FALL TO THE -14 TO -8 DEG C
RANGE WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. ONCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRES AIRMASS SHIFTS
TO THE E AND HIGHER H5 HEIGHTS MOVE THROUGH WITHIN THE MEAN NW
FLOW ON WED...TEMPS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY STARTING ON WED. HIGHS
JUMP UP TO THE 40S AND 50S WHILE THE AREA STILL IS NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL...ALLOWING WEATHER
SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA WED NIGHT-THU AND AGAIN FRI-SAT. THE
FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND FAST...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ONLY
A GLANCING BLOW WITH MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLGT CHC RANGE FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM WILL
HAVE MORE PUNCH TO IT AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLORADO REGION AND
BECOMES PICKED UP BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSING THRU THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FRI-SAT AS IT SHOVES THE LOW PRES COMPLEX
E ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE N SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHCS OF PRECIP TO THE MPX CWFA. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO COME
AS RAIN BUT THERE ARE SOME WINDOWS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY OCCUR
OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-UPR 40S WHILE LOWS LINGER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE BAND OF IFR CLOUDS AND MVFR VSBYS STRETCHING FROM KAXN TO KMSP TO
KRST IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER/LIFT A BIT THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. BY 15Z...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER TO AN MVFR
LEVEL...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
STRATOCU DISSIPATES. THE OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SPEEDS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.

KMSP...THIN DECK OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
BY 15Z...WITH A STRATOCU DECK /CIRCA 2500-3500 FT/ PREVAILING
THROUGH THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 18 KTS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND THEN
DECREASE TO AROUND 11 KTS SUSTAINED AFTER DARK.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 15G25KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS BCMG 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
011130-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
626 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO RAPID SNOW MELT AND RECENT RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.