Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Mobile, AL

384 
WWUS54 KMOB 111948
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
248 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

MSC039-131-111958-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130411T2030Z/
STONE MS-GEORGE MS-
248 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR GEORGE AND
EASTERN STONE COUNTIES...

AT 243 PM CDT...THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR GEORGE AND
EASTERN STONE COUNTIES HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THUS THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 3079 8922 3091 8887 3091 8883 3093 8883
      3100 8861 3099 8855 3073 8843 3073 8888
      3067 8889 3067 8917 3068 8919
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 256DEG 26KT 3077 8889

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1220 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 16Z...OR 11 AM CST...SHOWS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. QUITE A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WAS NOTED
ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AND IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AHEAD OF IT. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IS ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS IS YIELDING
SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LINE OF STORMS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING BECOMING ORGANIZED WITHIN THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS LINE OF STORMS IS GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAGEE MS...TO
JUST EAST OF MCCOMB MS...TO HAMMOND LA...THEN BECOMES MORE BROKEN
FROM NEAR THIBODAUX TO THE LA COAST AS OFF 1145 AM.

WE EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE INCREASINGLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF TIMING...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHEASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL COUNTIES
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM CDT...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE I-65 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM CDT...THEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM CDT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LINE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. /21

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AT KMOB AND KBFM UNTIL AROUND 12/01Z...
AND AT KPNS UNTIL AROUND 12/04Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. TSRA
WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT KMOB AND KBFM BETWEEN 12/20Z AND 12/24Z...
AND KPNS BETWEEN 12/23Z AND 13/03Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND IFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
LINE OF TSRA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING.
/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  51  76  50  77 /  90  60  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   78  56  77  54  78 /  90  90  05  00  05
DESTIN      76  61  75  57  75 /  70  90  10  00  05
EVERGREEN   80  52  76  45  78 /  90  80  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  76  46  75  44  78 /  90  30  05  00  05
CAMDEN      78  49  75  44  77 /  90  70  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   79  57  78  46  79 /  70  90  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ634-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
434 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AROUND 1 TO 3 PM... APPROACHING THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM...AND EXITING EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 9 AND 11
PM. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO WILL BE
HIGHEST IN ANY DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SQUALL LINE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS AREA
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS AREA BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GMZ630>633-635-650-655-670-675-121100-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
434 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY.

THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. SEVERAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE
AT TIMES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE GULF
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
159 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

MSZ075-076-111945-
PERRY MS-GREENE MS-
159 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PERRY AND GREENE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

AT 157 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF
WIGGINS...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF NEW AUGUSTA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MCLAIN...             LEAKESVILLE...        BEAUMONT...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&