Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Mobile, AL

294 
WWUS54 KMOB 222225
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
425 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

ALC131-222235-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130222T2245Z/
WILCOX AL-
425 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WILCOX COUNTY...

AT 422 PM CST...THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WILCOX COUNTY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY AND WEAKENED...THUS THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3224 8739 3221 8737 3220 8733 3215 8727
      3215 8726 3210 8722 3210 8720 3209 8720
      3206 8742 3224 8746 3225 8741
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 258DEG 51KT 3221 8707

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN GETS DEFLECTED
NORTH...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS HOT ON ITS HEELS. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. AS THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE FA (BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEAST BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ANCHORED TO AN UPPER
HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN)...IT WORKS WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. IT WILL ALSO CREATE
ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE
FA...CREATING TWO BANDS OF PRECIP TONIGHT. AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE FA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN INCREASE
IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FA...WITH HIGHER POPS
CENTERED NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...ADVANCES
QUICKLY EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING. THE NET RESULT IS RAINS BEING
PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE
THAT BEGINS TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENS EARLY SUNDAY AND AMPLIFIES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THE GULF SURFACE BOUNDARY
RESPONDS BY EASING NORTHWARD AND WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...ASCENT INCREASES WITH COVERAGES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
RAMPING BACK UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COULD VERY WELL BE DEALING
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A
SMALL WARM SECTOR TO SET UP ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THIS COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...SUPPORTS SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TREND COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT...WILL MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S INTERIOR/MID-
UPPER 50S COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AROUND 70. /10

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MONDAY LOOKING TO BE ACTIVE WITH
AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PIVOTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES/HODOGRAPHS RESULT IN A RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY. SOMETHING
FORECASTERS WILL FINE TUNE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EXPANDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...WITH A FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH
OF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO OVER THE KPNS AREA TO BETWEEN KDTS AND
KCEW...THE FORECAST IS PROVING TO BE A BEAR. CLOSE TO THE
FRONT...IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...RISING TO MVFR AND VFR LEVEL CIGS
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE NORTH AND
SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE FORECAST...BEFORE GETTING A SOUTHWARD SHOVE
SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A MODERATE
ONSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT LATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY A
MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WINDS BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STALLED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST ALONG WITH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGES ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65. SOME OF
THE RAINS LOCALLY HEAVY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA THEN BEGINS TO STALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. DAYTIME DISPERSION SATURDAY GENERALLY FAIR TO
POOR. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT WITH HIGH COVERAGES OF
SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS...THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  65  47  70  57 / 100  80  20  20  60
PENSACOLA   63  68  52  70  58 / 100  90  40  20  60
DESTIN      63  69  53  68  59 / 100  90  50  20  60
EVERGREEN   56  65  43  70  51 / 100  80  30  10  60
WAYNESBORO  52  65  39  70  50 /  80  20  20  10  60
CAMDEN      54  65  40  70  50 /  90  50  20  10  60
CRESTVIEW   65  70  47  73  56 / 100  90  40  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
303 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-232100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
303 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG A WARM FRONT...DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THIS AXIS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE
65. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR DRAINAGE DURING HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL TO DIME TO
QUARTER SIZE IN ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT CAN VERY WELL LEAD TO EXTENDED RIVER
FLOODING PROBLEMS. SEE APPROPRIATE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...GENERALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY EAST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY.

THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE
FLOODING PROBLEMS ON MANY AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED
ON AN ISOLATED BASIS TONIGHT.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-232115-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
302 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
233 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

ALZ051-MSZ067-222130-
CHOCTAW AL-WAYNE MS-
233 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...THROUGH 330 PM CST...

AT 232 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WAYNESBORO...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HEIDELBERG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEEDHAM...            LISMAN...             BUTLER...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
309 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

ALZ051-053-054-222215-
CHOCTAW AL-WILCOX AL-CLARKE AL-
309 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN
WILCOX AND NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
THROUGH 415 PM CST...

AT 309 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
BUTLER...OR 5 MILES EAST OF NEEDHAM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TOXEY...              NEEDHAM...            BUTLER...
  CATHERINE...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND A WARNING MAY SOON BE
NEEDED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO OR TV FOR FURTHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&