Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Mobile, AL

098 
WWUS54 KMOB 012138
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
438 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

ALC053-FLC033-012147-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-130901T2145Z/
ESCAMBIA AL-ESCAMBIA FL-
438 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR 
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA ALABAMA 
COUNTIES...

AT 437 PM CDT...THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN 
ESCAMBIA FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA ALABAMA COUNTIES HAS 
WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL (800) 284-9059.

LAT...LON 3088 8762 3092 8761 3095 8759 3099 8759
      3100 8761 3109 8759 3108 8737 3087 8737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 011DEG 1KT 3094 8750

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
233 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THEN SW OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN
ITS IDENTITY THROUGH TOMORROW. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ALSO MAINTAINS ITS
IDENTITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP H20 VALUES OVER THE AREA RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1.8" SE TO 1.5" NW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BASIC
PATTERN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...AM EXPECTING LITTLE
CHANGE FROM TODAY FOR MONDAY. WITH BEST MOISTURE BEING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN BEST CHANCE FOR POPS
THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA. /16

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES IS STILL SET TO CONTINUE AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE CONTINUING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY.  LONGWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING CONUS WHILE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES EASTWARD.  A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
MAINTAINS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHILE A WEAK TRAILING FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SLIPPING OFFSHORE EACH NIGHT.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AND MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.9 INCHES...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DECREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH A DRYING TREND CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTION CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  FOR TUESDAY
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE EVENING FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.  WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR PORTION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...THEN WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES.  SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE
BASED CAPES OF GENERALLY 1500-2000 J/KG.  SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER WILL AID IN DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT BUT LOOKS MORE
LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION BUT IS REPETITIVELY WEAKENED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE STUBBORN LONGWAVE TROF LINGERING OVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC TO EAST COAST.  THESE SHORTWAVES
EVENTUALLY ARE SUFFICIENT TO REBUILD THE UPPER TROF BACK ACROSS THE
AREA...EVEN AS FAR AS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. OTHERWISE...THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY NEAR THE COAST WEAKENS TO A
SURFACE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH
LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. /29

&&

.MARINE...A SEMI-ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH
A GENERALLY LIGHT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN FLOW OVER THE AREA. /16

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA DEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE COAST AS THE GULF BREEZE ORGANIZES AND
WORKS INLAND. EXPECTING THE SAME AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  73  92  73 /  40  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  87  76  91  75 /  30  40  20  40  20
DESTIN      79  85  77  89  77 /  30  40  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   71  90  71  93  71 /  30  50  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  93  71  93  70 /  20  20  20  40  20
CAMDEN      71  92  71  93  70 /  20  40  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   72  89  71  93  70 /  40  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
502 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-021015-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
502 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BECOMING SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE SPREADING AND INCREASING TO THE WEST TODAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM OVERALL COVERAGE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-021015-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
502 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA TODAY
AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS
COULD MAKE NAVIGATION DIFFICULT FOR SMALL CRAFT.

RIP CURRENT RISK MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS WHICH COULD
MAKE NAVIGATION DIFFICULT FOR SMALL CRAFT.

RIP CURRENT RISK MODERATE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

ALZ062-064-FLZ001-002-012115-
INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-UPPER BALDWIN AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
LOWER BALDWIN AL-
341 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

AT 337 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
MOLINO...OR 16 MILES EAST OF STAPLETON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL EAST CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY
  RURAL CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 IN ALABAMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 47 AND
65.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

ALZ059-012115-
ESCAMBIA AL-
342 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

AT 337 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ATMORE...OR 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF I65 AND AL 21...AND MOVING SOUTH
AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  POARCH CREEK RESERVATION...                 MCCULLOUGH...
  I65 AND CR 1...       I65 AND AL 21...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 51 AND 67.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&