Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Mobile, AL

178 
WWUS54 KMOB 241820
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
120 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

FLC091-241830-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-130724T1900Z/
OKALOOSA FL-
120 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY...

AT 118 PM CDT...THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OKALOOSA COUNTY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3042 8649 3041 8645 3044 8642 3048 8645
      3045 8652 3058 8664 3070 8649 3062 8638
      3045 8639 3044 8642 3042 8644 3040 8639
      3037 8640 3037 8645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 316DEG 17KT 3049 8640

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
959 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

.MARINE UPDATE...INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOME STRONG WILL ALSO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2013/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...A PERSISTENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTS IN SOME UNCERTAINTIES TODAY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION. SEVERAL SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS IT IS DIFFICULT FOR
ANY MODEL GUIDANCE TO HANDLE THESE FEATURES IN THE PROPER WAY.
LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AVERAGE NEAR 2 INCHES AND MLCAPES CLIMB INTO THE
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. GIVEN ALL THE POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HAVE
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS. THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE AT
THIS TIME IS A WELL DEFINED MCV (SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR) OVER NE
LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND COULD RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH THE 4KM NSSL AND SPC WRF SHOW CONVECTION
ORGANIZING ACROSS OUR AREA INTO ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH REGARDING MCS
DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH RADAR TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IF STORMS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED...THEN THE THREAT
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING SEVERE. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...SHALLOW ROOTED TREES ARE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING UPROOTED RIGHT NOW DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THIS AFTERNOON'S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

WHILE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO WANE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
INSTABILITY IS LOST...WILL HAVE TO KEEP 20-30% RAIN CHANCES IN
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT WILL STILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY
12Z THU. LOWS IN THE MUGGY LOW TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE
COAST. 34/JFB

THURSDAY...EASTERN NOSE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OUT OF TEXAS. STILL MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE AND A MID LEVEL TROF MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
LINGERING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED. THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT DAILY HIGHS WILL LIFT INTO THE MID 90S
FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY. GRIDDED HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105. QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE DUE TO THE
WET PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN. WITH FRONT TO...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR NEAR 68 WHILE COASTAL
ZONES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY BREAKS DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
LOWERING HEIGHTS WITH NEXT MID LEVEL TROF PROGRESS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY...TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROF SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST PROVIDING
MID LEVEL CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT WHILE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. A CHANCE OF DAILY STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS 68 TO 72 INTERIOR...MID
70S COAST. /10

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN VCTS MENTIONS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN. MOST CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE. PATCHY MVFR
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 34/JFB

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG W-SW WINDS CONTINUE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
BETWEEN A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH/TN VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH STARTING TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE TROUGH STALLS ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BECOME
STRONGER IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET
TODAY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 1 TO 2 FEET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MOVING FROM NW TO SE OFF LAND AND INTO THE MARINE AREA.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  74  95  73  95 /  60  30  20  05  05
PENSACOLA   91  76  94  76  94 /  60  30  20  10  05
DESTIN      89  79  91  78  91 /  60  30  20  10  05
EVERGREEN   92  71  95  68  95 /  60  30  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  92  71  95  67  95 /  60  20  10  05  05
CAMDEN      90  71  95  68  95 /  60  30  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   93  72  96  71  95 /  60  30  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-251100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
434 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST MONTH...EVEN SUB SEVERE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BRING
DOWN SHALLOW ROOTED TREES DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-251100-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
434 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
GULF WATERS...AS A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER LAND AREAS TODAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING
MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS.