River Flood Warning 81, NWS Mobile, AL

095 
WGUS84 KMOB 221542
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
942 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA...
 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-231542-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0081.131224T1800Z-131226T1200Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.131224T1800Z.131225T0000Z.131226T0600Z.NO/
942 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING
* AT 9AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.6 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 8.1 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

727 
WGUS84 KMOB 230058
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
658 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 
HOWEVER...THE RIVER IS NOW FORECAST TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-230128-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-131226T1200Z/
/CRVF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
658 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING 
* AT 6PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.6 FEET AND RISING 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 7.6 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
849 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.UPDATE...DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVER REGION ALOFT WITH PROMINENT
VEERING WIND PROFILE OBSERVED BETWEEN SFC-850 HPA. EVEN AT THIS HOUR...
SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR 70
DEWPOINTS CREATING SFC THETA-E VALUES OF 339-343 K LOCALLY.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTS TO PREVENT
DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 7.5-10 KFT AGL RANGE.
EROSION OF THIS INVERSION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM AS LINE
APPROACHES (SEE BELOW). AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG STILL PERSISTS PER
LATEST WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS (FROM WHAT WE COULD PIECE TOGETHER GIVEN
CLOUDS ABOVE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAKING EXACT SPATIAL DETERMINATION
A CHALLENGE). SEA FOG APPEARS TO BE HANGING RIGHT AROUND THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH LOW COGS ONLY BEYOND AND OUT OVER THE SHELF
WATERS OVER ADJACENT BAYS AND WATERWAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOES
INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT FOR COASTAL PORTION OF COASTAL COUNTIES.

SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE APPROACHING LINE HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT (CONSISTENT WITH EJECTION OF OF SYNOPTIC SCALE NEG-TILT
S/WAVE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BY MODELS). SO...WE NOW
EXPECT ARRIVAL IN THE 1-3 AM TIME FRAME. AS 850 HPA SFC LOW CONTINUES
EJECTING NEWD OVER U.S. MIDWEST...ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN TAIL-END OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET SWEEPS OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH 6
AM TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MAIN FORCING QUICKLY MOVES NEWD AS MAIN LOW
PULLS AWAY QUICKLY WELL TO OUR N OVER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS LINE
MOVES ACROSS OVERNIGHT MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPES IN 400-900 J/KG)
AND RELATIVELY HIGH EFFECTIVE SR HEL VALUES (300-400 M2 S-2) WILL
EXIST AS AMBIENT CONDITIONS. WE ARE ESSENTIALLY DOWN TO MONITORING
WHETHER OR NOT A STRONG COLD POOL WILL DEVELOP IN REAR OF APPROACHING
LINE. IF SO...THIS WILL AID STRONGER LEWPS AND BOWS. AREAS WEST OF
I-65 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM
ISOLD WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLD TORNADOES IF FURTHER UPSCALE ORGANIZATION
OF THE INCOMING LINE OCCURS.

AFTER SUNRISE...SFC FRONT SLOWS EVEN MORE AS MID AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES EVEN MORE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS EAST OF I-65 (2-4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
THROUGH MID SUNDAY EVENING) GIVEN PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AIR
(~1.90" EQUATING TO OBSERVATIONS ABOVE 95TH PERCENTILE) - AS THE MAIN
DRIVERS WITHIN A MADDOX FRONTAL FORCING LIKE HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN.
ALSO...DURING THE DAY TOMORROW THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENGAGES THE LOW LEVEL FRONT FOR ABOUT 6-9
HOURS EAST OF I-65 FORCING A DEEP LAYER OF DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
FOR UPWARD ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE OTHER FACTORS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE

SO...MADE SOME BASIC ADJUSTMENTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. SINCE THE LINE'S ARRIVAL TIME HAS SLOWED...MADE
BASIC ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS...QPF AND RAINFALL PROBABILITIES. ALSO
ADJUSTED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA IN WEATHER GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY TO REDUCE ISOLD TORNADO AND WIND THREAT TO AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF I-65 AND NW OF U.S. HIGHWAY 84 (SEE LATEST GRAPHICAST FOR
EXACT DETAILS - RECENTLY ISSUED). ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO PLACE SLOWER LINE MORE IN CENTER OF CWFA (CENTERED
ON I-65 CORRIDOR). NPW FOR HIGH WIND ADVISORY WILL DROP AT MIDNIGHT. /23
JMM

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...IFR CIGS ARE ALREADY SETTING IN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. VSBYS WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED AT PNS/BFM DUE TO THEIR LOCATION CLOSE TO WATER AND
DEVELOPING ADVECTION FOG. BFM MOST LIKELY TO SEE 1/4-1/2SM VSBYS
TONIGHT. LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NW MS TO SW LA
IS MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT BFM/MOB UNTIL OR AFTER 10Z...AND PNS 13Z.
HOWEVER...AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA...IT WILL SLOW
DOWN AND AFFECT THE REGION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. THEREFORE...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...THUNDER...AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOB/BFM AROUND 00Z
MONDAY...AND A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE EVENING AT PNS. RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  73  54  60  33 /  90  90  70  30  05
PENSACOLA   70  72  58  63  35 /  80  70  80  40  05
DESTIN      70  73  61  65  39 /  50  60  80  60  05
EVERGREEN   69  73  55  59  31 /  90  90  70  30  05
WAYNESBORO  65  73  48  56  28 / 100  70  40  20  00
CAMDEN      68  72  50  57  29 / 100  90  60  20  00
CRESTVIEW   70  74  59  63  33 /  60  90  80  60  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-222215-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
413 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL AREAS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES...WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS LINE
COULD BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MOSTLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-222215-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
413 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY REFORM EARLY THIS EVENING LIFTING SLOWLY EARLY SUNDAY AS
A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LINE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
WILL GIVE WAY TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.