Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2013

River Flood Warning 72, NWS Mobile, AL

July 3, 2013Okaloosa County, Florida

NWS Mobile, AL issued this river flood warning at Jul 3, 2013, 8:55 PM CDT for Okaloosa County, Florida. It took effect at Jul 4, 2013, 9:15 PM CDT. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 3, 2013, 8:55 PM CDT (01:55 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 4, 2013, 9:15 PM CDT
Expired
Jul 9, 2013, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Flood severity
Minor

County Okaloosa County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Shoal River near Crestview (CRVF1). The gauge peaked at 8.53 ft at Jul 6, 2013, 9:00 PM CDT.

actionminormoderate51007/0407/0507/0607/0707/0807/0907/10
Action stage
6 ft
Minor stage
8 ft
Moderate stage
12 ft
Major stage
15 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02369000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

322 
WGUS44 KMOB 040155
FLWMOB
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL 
855 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013


...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA... 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY.

.HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...RIVER
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-050155-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0072.130705T2136Z-130709T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T2136Z.130706T1800Z.130708T1800Z.NO/
855 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A 
* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS...4.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 8.6 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS OCCURS.
* AT 8.5 FEET...WATER IN YARDS ON SOWEL RD.

$$
17 follow-up statements
993 
WGUS84 KMOB 041553
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1053 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-051553-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.130705T0215Z-130708T0800Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0215Z.130706T0000Z.130708T0200Z.NO/
1053 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM TONIGHT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
* AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.6 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 9.7
  FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY 
  BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 8 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR.  

$$
236 
WGUS84 KMOB 050315
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1015 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-060315-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-130707T1030Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.130705T0120Z.130706T0000Z.130707T0430Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT 
* AT 9 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.2 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 11 FEET...SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND LOWLANDS FROM AROUND 
  BAKER DOWNSTREAM WILL OCCUR.  

$$

FLC091-060314-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T1000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0517Z.130707T0600Z.130709T0400Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
* AT 9 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 9.6 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE BY MONDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 8 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS OCCURS.
* AT 8.5 FEET...WATER IN YARDS ON SOWEL RD.

$$
003 
WGUS84 KMOB 050822
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
322 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-060822-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-130708T1612Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.130705T0120Z.130706T1800Z.130708T1012Z.NO/
322 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING 
* AT 2 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.4 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10 FEET...KENNEDY AND PEADEN BRIDGES FLOOD UPSTREAM.
* AT 11 FEET...SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND LOWLANDS FROM AROUND 
  BAKER DOWNSTREAM WILL OCCUR.  
* AT 14 FEET...EAST PARK IN BAKER IS FLOODED.
* AT 14.5 FEET...WEST PARK IN BAKER FLOODS.

$$

FLC091-060822-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T1800Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130708T0000Z.130709T1200Z.NO/
322 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 2 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.3 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 8 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS OCCURS.
* AT 8.5 FEET...WATER IN YARDS ON SOWEL RD.
* AT 10 FEET...FLOOD WATERS THREATEN TRAILERS NORTH OF THE OKALOOSA CORRECTIONAL CENTER.

$$
345 
WGUS84 KMOB 051433
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
933 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVERS. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-060828-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-130706T0828Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.130705T0120Z.130705T0901Z.130706T0228Z.NO/
933 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT 
* AT 9AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.0 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL. THE RIVER   WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* AT 12 FEET, FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND LOWLANDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE RIVER
  DROPS BELOW 12 FEET.  

$$

FLC091-061433-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130710T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0600Z.130709T1800Z.NO/
933 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING 
* AT 8AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.3 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8.5 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING IN THE AREA WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIVER DROPS BELOW
  8 FEET.  

$$
304 
WGUS84 KMOB 051834
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
134 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVERS. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-060049-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-130706T0049Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.130705T0120Z.130705T0901Z.130705T1849Z.NO/
134 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL THIS EVENING 
* AT 1PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NO FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND LOWLANDS FROM AROUND 
  BAKER DOWNSTREAM WILL OCCUR.  

$$

FLC091-061834-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T0600Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0000Z.130709T0000Z.NO/
134 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
* AT 1PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.8 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 8.5 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING IN THE AREA WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIVER DROPS BELOW
  8 FEET.  

$$
047 
WGUS84 KMOB 060154
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
854 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-070154-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T0300Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130706T1800Z.130708T2100Z.NO/
854 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING 
* AT 8PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.7 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$
552 
WGUS84 KMOB 060917
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
417 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
   BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-070917-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-130707T1845Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.130706T1800Z.130707T1245Z.NO/
417 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 4AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.2 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 10 FEET...KENNEDY AND PEADEN BRIDGES FLOOD UPSTREAM.
* AT 11 FEET...SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND LOWLANDS FROM AROUND 
  BAKER DOWNSTREAM WILL OCCUR.  
* AT 14 FEET...EAST PARK IN BAKER IS FLOODED.

$$

FLC091-070916-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T1800Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130706T1200Z.130709T1200Z.NO/
417 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 3AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.6 FEET BY THIS MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 8 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS OCCURS.
* AT 8.5 FEET...WATER IN YARDS ON SOWEL RD.

$$
970 
WGUS84 KMOB 061457
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
957 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVERS. 

FETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-071457-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-130707T1812Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.130706T1800Z.130707T1212Z.NO/
957 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 9AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.3 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 12 FEET, FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND LOWLANDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE RIVER
  DROPS BELOW 12 FEET.  

$$

FLC091-071457-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T1200Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130706T0500Z.130709T0600Z.NO/
957 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING 
* AT 9AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 8.5 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING IN THE AREA WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIVER DROPS BELOW
  8 FEET.  

$$
666 
WGUS84 KMOB 061851
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
151 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVERS. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-071400-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-130707T1400Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.130706T1131Z.130707T0800Z.NO/
151 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING 
* AT 1PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW.
* AT 12 FEET, FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND LOWLANDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE RIVER
  DROPS BELOW 12 FEET.  

$$

FLC091-071850-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130706T0500Z.130708T1800Z.NO/
151 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING 
* AT 1PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.
* AT 8.5 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING IN THE AREA WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIVER DROPS BELOW
  8 FEET.  

$$
577 
WGUS84 KMOB 070043
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
743 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVERS. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-070716-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-130707T0716Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.130706T1131Z.130707T0116Z.NO/
743 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT 
* AT 7PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NO FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* AT 11 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND LOWLANDS FROM AROUND 
  BAKER DOWNSTREAM WILL OCCUR.  

$$

FLC091-080043-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T2100Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0600Z.130709T1500Z.NO/
743 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 7PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 8.6 FEET UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 8.5 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING IN THE AREA WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIVER DROPS BELOW
  8 FEET.  

$$
391 
WGUS84 KMOB 070446
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA...
   SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-080446-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T2100Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0600Z.130709T1500Z.NO/
1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.6 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 8 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS OCCURS.
* AT 8.5 FEET...WATER IN YARDS ON SOWEL RD.

$$
679 
WGUS84 KMOB 071245
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
745 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA...
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-081245-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130710T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0130Z.130709T1800Z.NO/
745 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING 
* AT 7 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.
* AT 8 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS OCCURS.
* AT 8.5 FEET...WATER IN YARDS ON SOWEL RD.

$$
555 
WGUS84 KMOB 071525
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1025 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA...
 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-081525-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T2100Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0130Z.130709T1500Z.NO/
1025 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 9AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.5 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 8.5 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING IN THE AREA WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIVER DROPS BELOW
  8 FEET.  

$$
635 
WGUS84 KMOB 080630
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
130 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-090600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T0600Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0130Z.130709T0000Z.NO/
130 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

...FLOOD WARNING WARNING CONTINUES FOR tHE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT 
* AT 12AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL remain near 8.2 FEET THIS MORNING and WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 8.0 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR.  

$$
475 
WGUS84 KMOB 081627
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1127 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-082151-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130708T2151Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0130Z.130708T1551Z.NO/
1127 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON 
* AT 10 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NO FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
* AT 8 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS OCCURS.


$$
015 
WGUS84 KMOB 081833
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
133 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-091200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T1200Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0130Z.130709T0600Z.NO/
133 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING 
* AT 1 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.1 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* AT 8 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS OCCURS.

$$
181 
WGUS84 KMOB 090135
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
835 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-090600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130709T0600Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130705T0648Z.130707T0130Z.130709T0000Z.NO/
835 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT 
* AT 7PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NO FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS EVENING.
* AT 8.0 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR.  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 3, 6:27 PM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 6:27 PM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
627 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

.AVIATION [04.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...STALLED SURFACE
FRONT/TROF ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD BASES AT MULTIPLE LEVELS. THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWEST CIG BASES OVERNIGHT TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH ADDITIONAL
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF LATE. MVFR CIGS
AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN TSRA ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS/BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY STORMS. /10

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION / 607 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
90-100 KNOT UPPER JET WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WHICH SHIFTS WESTWARD TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
FOR OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM.  THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES FOR THURSDAY FOR WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE...BUT USING A BLEND OF THE HIGHER PERFORMING
GFS/ECMWF...THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED EAST OF I-65.

AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH POOR AGREEMENT
AMONG THE GFS/ECWMF/NAM/GEM/UKMET ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY.  THIS UNCERTAINTY AFFECTS SEVERAL IMPORTANT FORECAST
CONCERNS SUCH AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND STRENGTH OF THE
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL.  LOOKING AT THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER...EXPECT THE BEST
PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE AREA TO SHIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD TO GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...BUT
AFTERWARD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO WORK
BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECTED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND EXPECTED POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING.  WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA.  RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE 2 TO 4.5 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM 1 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY BASED ON A
SPRING TIDAL CYCLE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND WAVE PERIODS INCREASING TO NEAR 9 SECONDS.
SIMILARLY...HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO BEGIN
CURRENTLY AND EXTEND THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY. /29

THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP WATERS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. STILL...PRECIP WATERS OF 1.7-18 INCHES
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...WHICH GIVES SOME HOPE TO FIREWORK FESTIVITIES...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAX (2.2-2.4 INCHES)IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
WEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN ZONES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 2-2.3 INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CONTINUATION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SUCH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS MUCH MORE BROAD COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING MID
TO LATE WEEK AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LINE UP
EACH DAY.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHUNTS THE BEST MOISTURE TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A DAILY CHANCE FOR STORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS WILL START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE CORE WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THIS EVENING. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL FUNNEL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.3 INCHES OVER THE AREA (CLOSE TO TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL). MODEL SOUNDINGS PROJECT A DEEP
MOIST LAYER (13 THOUSAND TO 14 THOUSAND FEET) DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
WATER IMAGERY VAPOR SHOWS A TRAIN OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH PROPAGATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA...A
SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER
SOUTH ALABAMA...POINT IS WE APPEAR PRIMED FOR A HEAVY RAIN FALL
EVENT.  WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
WITH THE MAIN THREAT REMAINING EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED REPORTS OF UP TO
DOUBLE THESE AMOUNTS.  ALTHOUGH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEST DURING THIS PERIOD THE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAR MORE
SCATTERED. EXPECT THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RIVERS...WITH THE SHOAL RIVER, YELLOW RIVER,
BLACK WATER RIVER AND COLD WATER RIVER POTENTIALLY REACHING MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PROJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN TO SHUNT THE FAUCET OR THE MAIN AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO TEMPORARILY DECREASE.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME RETROGRADING WESTWARD FRIDAY...WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE FETCH FOLLOWING AND BROADENING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND...OPENING UP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 08/JW

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND 15Z LOCAL WRF...HAVE EXPANDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN WITH ISSUANCE OF THE MARINE PACKAGE AND
CONTINUE FOR THE BAYS AND INLAND WATERWAYS UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY AND FOR
THE GULF WATERS UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY.  THE ONSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  86  72  89  72 /  60  60  40  70  50
PENSACOLA   75  84  76  86  74 /  80  80  40  70  50
DESTIN      76  82  75  86  75 /  90  90  50  70  50
EVERGREEN   71  83  71  88  71 /  80  80  50  70  50
WAYNESBORO  68  85  67  88  70 /  60  50  30  60  50
CAMDEN      69  83  72  88  70 /  80  80  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   73  83  73  88  71 /  90  90  50  70  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...PENSACOLA BAY
     SYSTEM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 3, 2:04 PM CDT, 6 hours 51 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
204 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041915-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
204 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH
A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO A LITTLE
OVER 2 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 IN ALABAMA AND OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EASILY POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...LOWER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE AND TIME AS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
THE REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING DOUBLE THOSE
AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FOR FLOODING ISSUES...THAT ARISE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-041915-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
204 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 4, 1:16 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBEscambia119 min
Jul 4, 3:05 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBEscambia115 min
Jul 4, 6:30 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBOkaloosa, Santa Rosa2 hr
Jul 4, 7:40 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBOkaloosa2 hr
Jul 4, 10:57 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBOkaloosa3 hr
Jul 4, 11:46 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMOBOkaloosa, Santa Rosa32 hr
Jul 4, 2:11 PM CDTFlash Flood WatchMOB70 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2013Every river flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.