River Flood Warning 69, NWS Mobile, AL

193 
WGUS84 KMOB 081637
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1137 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ALABAMA...
 
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AND NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND 
  WASHINGTON COUNTIES. 
  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC023-025-129-091637-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0069.130509T0359Z-130511T0600Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.130509T0359Z.130509T1800Z.130511T0000Z.NO/
1137 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM
* FROM TONIGHT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
* AT 10AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 28 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 
  29.4 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 29 FEET, PASTURELAND IN THE AREA WILL BECOME FLOODED AND LIVESTOCK NEED TO 
BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.  

$$

ALC023-025-129-091637-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0070.130509T1500Z-130511T2100Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.130509T1500Z.130510T1800Z.130511T1500Z.NO/
1137 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY
* FROM TOMORROW LATE MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 11AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 24 FEET, FLOODING OF LOW LYING FARM AND PASTURELANDS IN THE AREA WILL 
OCCUR.  CATTLE IN LOW LYING AREAS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.  

$$

MSC039-041-153-091637-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-130512T1800Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.130502T1730Z.130507T0930Z.130512T1200Z.NO/
1137 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 11AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.


$$

805 
WGUS84 KMOB 090120
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
820 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ALABAMA...
 
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AND NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON 
  COUNTIES. 
  
.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC023-025-129-100120-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0069.130510T0000Z-130511T0900Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.130510T0000Z.130510T0600Z.130511T0300Z.NO/
820 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM
* FROM TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
* AT 7PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.2 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 29.1 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY FRIDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 29 FEET, PASTURELAND IN THE AREA WILL BECOME FLOODED AND LIVESTOCK NEED TO 
  BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.  

$$

ALC023-025-129-100120-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0070.130510T1800Z-130511T1200Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.130510T1800Z.130510T1800Z.130511T0600Z.NO/
820 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY
* FROM FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 8PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.6 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 24 FEET, FLOODING OF LOW LYING FARM AND PASTURELANDS IN THE AREA WILL 
  OCCUR.  CATTLE IN LOW LYING AREAS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.  

$$

044 
WGUS84 KMOB 091515
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1015 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
 
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND 
  WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON 
  COUNTIES.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

MSC039-041-153-101515-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-130514T0600Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.130502T1730Z.130507T0930Z.130514T0000Z.NO/
1015 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
* AT 9AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.3 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET
* THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EVENING.
AT 26.0 FEET, FLOODING AT THE HIGHWAY BRIDGE BEGINS WHEN THE LEVEL RISES ABOVE 
26 FEET.

$$

ALC023-025-129-091545-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0069.000000T0000Z-130511T0900Z/
/CLDA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1015 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
* AT 9AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.1 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29.0 FEET

$$

ALC023-025-129-091545-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-130511T1200Z/
/LRYA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1015 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING 
* AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.7 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET
 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
526 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHEAST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING (MAINLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES) WILL DISSIPATE BY 9 AM...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

DECREASING LOW LEVEL STABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED
ONLY A 10 PERCENT COVERAGE...AND THE TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE LESS
THAN 0.05 INCHES IN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS DECREASING DUE TO SURFACE
COOLING...HOWEVER CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE INVADING FROM THE WEST AT
THE SAME TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 79
TO 84 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z THU MID TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED NEAR AND
ALONG THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWFA BY 00Z FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE TROFS THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER AND SE
STATES FRI THROUGH SAT. THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BY EARLY FRI THEN MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT BY FRI EVENING. WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED WE WILL LIKELY SEE THIS FIRST SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY EARLY FRI MORNING MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF A MCS WEAKENING AS
IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON FRI. WITH DECENT
FORCING NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH 0-3 HELICITY VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 150 M2/S2 WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOST OF THE DAY ON FRI ACCOMPANIED MOSTLY
WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.
A FEW ISOLATED CELLS MAY SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THOUGH THE BETTER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE EARLY OVER PARTS OF SE MS
AND SW AL FRI MORNING. BY LATE FRI NIGHT THE FIRST IMPULSE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWFA WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
EARLY SAT TRACKING FURTHER INLAND THAN THE FIRST. LESS SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE ON SAT THOUGH DEEPER
MOISTURE IS DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME AREAS
COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. BY
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WITH DRIER COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. MAIN UPPER TROF
DRIVING THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LAST
WEEK WITH MAIN TROF AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTER 18Z SUN. A
BROAD SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SETTLING OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND CENTRAL GULF STATES MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
BOTH MON AND TUE GRADUALLY REBOUNDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ON THU WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FRI THROUGH SUN...THEN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THU NIGHT
THROUGH SUN MORNING AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MON AND IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY TUE MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT
MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. /32

&&

.AVIATION...[08.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z...FOLLOWED BY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 4000-5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CEILING WILL
THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES LATE TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRI AND SAT.
DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER SE MS AND NEAR THE
COAST ON FRI AND OVER MOST INLAND AREAS ON SAT. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN
THEN LOWER TO NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL VALUES MON THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AREAS OF FOG BECOMING DENSE AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY EACH
NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING EACH DAY THROUGH SAT. /32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  60  83  64  79 /  05  00  10  10  40
PENSACOLA   80  63  81  65  79 /  05  05  10  10  20
DESTIN      79  65  78  66  77 /  05  00  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   84  55  86  60  84 /  10  05  10  10  20
WAYNESBORO  84  57  86  62  79 /  05  00  10  10  50
CAMDEN      83  57  87  60  82 /  05  00  10  10  30
CRESTVIEW   83  56  86  59  86 /  10  05  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
923 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091430-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
923 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-091430-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
923 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN AREA BAYS...SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.