River Flood Warning 42, NWS Mobile, AL

274 
WGUS84 KMOB 241735
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN AFFECTING COVINGTON...OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA 
  COUNTIES. 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-251735-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0041.130225T2234Z-130228T0600Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.130225T2234Z.130226T1800Z.130228T0000Z.NO/
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* AT 11AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 14.0 FEET BY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

FLC091-113-251734-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0042.130227T0130Z-130228T0800Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.130227T0130Z.130227T1200Z.130228T0200Z.NO/
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* FROM TUESDAY EVENING UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* AT 11AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE
  TO NEAR 10.4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

FLC091-251734-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.130224T0115Z.130228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 10AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.8 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 10 FEET, SOME FLOODING OF TRAILERS NORTH OF OKALOOSA CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE OCCURS.
  

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-251734-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0043.130227T2046Z-130301T1108Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.130227T2046Z.130228T0600Z.130301T0508Z.NO/
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN
* FROM WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
* AT 11AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 13.5 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

$$

459 
WGUS84 KMOB 251423
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
823 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 
  STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 
  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. 
  YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN AFFECTING COVINGTON...OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA 
  COUNTIES. 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-261423-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRVF1.2.ER.130224T0115Z.130228T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 7AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.4 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
AT 10.0 FEET, SOME FLOODING OF TRAILERS NORTH OF THE OKALOOSA CORRECTIONAL 
INSTITUE OCCURS AS THE RIVER RISES ABOVE 10 FEET  

$$

ALC003-FLC033-261423-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0039.130226T1330Z-130227T1525Z/
/BRPF1.1.ER.130226T1330Z.130227T0000Z.130227T0925Z.NO/
823 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK
* FROM TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING
* AT 7AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 13.8 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC003-FLC033-261423-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0044.130226T1630Z-130227T0300Z/
/STXA1.1.ER.130226T1630Z.130226T1800Z.130226T2100Z.NO/
823 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR
* FROM TOMORROW LATE MORNING UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING
* AT 8AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 12.4 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

$$

ALC039-053-261423-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0040.130226T1912Z-130301T1200Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.130226T1912Z.130227T1800Z.130301T0600Z.NO/
823 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* FROM TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
* AT 7AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 27.9 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC053-FLC033-261423-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.130213T2300Z.130228T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 8AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.3 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 21.6 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AT 17.0 FEET, CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF LOWLANDS WILL OCCUR.  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-261423-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0041.130226T0337Z-130228T0243Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.130226T0337Z.130226T1800Z.130227T2043Z.NO/
823 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* FROM TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AT 8AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 
  14.1 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

FLC091-113-261423-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0042.130226T1545Z-130228T1800Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.130226T1545Z.130227T1200Z.130228T1200Z.NO/
823 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* FROM TOMORROW LATE MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 8AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 11.4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-261423-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0043.130227T1727Z-130301T1200Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.130227T1727Z.130228T0600Z.130301T0600Z.NO/
823 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN
* FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
* AT 8AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.3 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 13.9 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

830 
WGUS84 KMOB 260143
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
743 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. 
  YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN AFFECTING COVINGTON...OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA 
  COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-270143-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRVF1.2.ER.130224T0115Z.130228T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
743 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 7PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.1 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 10 FEET, SOME FLOODING OF TRAILERS NORTH OF THE OKALOOSA CORRECTIONAL 
  INSTITUE OCCURS.  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-270143-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0041.130226T1200Z-130228T0000Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.130226T1200Z.130227T0000Z.130227T1800Z.NO/
743 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* FROM TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AT 7PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 13.0 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 9.5 FEET, KENNEDY AND PEADEN BRIDGES FLOODED UPSTREAM.  

$$

FLC091-113-270143-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0042.130227T0000Z-130228T1030Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.130227T0000Z.130227T1200Z.130228T0430Z.NO/
743 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* FROM TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* AT 7PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 10.5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  WEDNESDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-270143-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0043.130228T0000Z-130301T0834Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.130228T0000Z.130228T1200Z.130301T0234Z.NO/
743 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN
* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
* AT 7PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 13.0 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

642 
WGUS84 KMOB 261509
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
909 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
ALABAMA...
 
  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES.
  YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN AFFECTING COVINGTON...OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA 
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-113-261539-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-130228T1030Z/
/MLNF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
909 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* AT 8AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET AND WAS RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT IS
  NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. 

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-261539-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-130301T0834Z/
/MLGF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
909 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN
* AT 8AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET AND WAS RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT IS
  NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
533 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO
FORM OVER MOST INLAND AREAS OF SW AL AND SE MS THIS MORNING AS SKIES
CLEAR AND SFC TEMPS DROP. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9
AM THIS MORNING FOR THESE AREAS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH. FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK TURN AROUND STARTING OUT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN ADVANCING INLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT COMBINED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF. ALOFT RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET COMBINED WITH ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVING
EAST OUT OF TEXAS GIVES WAY TO A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT MOSTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
SHIFTING INLAND OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS DRYING
OUT OVER MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY QUICKLY
MOISTENING TO 1.6 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY BETTER BY 06Z TONIGHT. ONE OTHER
NOTE IN THE COLUMN WAS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE ADVANCING INLAND RESULTING IN THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
MOSTLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING
SHIFTING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH WETBULB VALUES STARTING
OUT AROUND 7 K FT TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TONIGHT EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO AROUND 11K FT BY 12Z MON BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED SO THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS
REACHING THE SURFACE WILL BE MINIMAL STARTING OUT THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOTED IN THE LOWEST 6 KM. AS A RESULT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME ROTATING CELLS OVERNIGHT...REMAINING MOSTLY ELEVATED
THROUGH 12Z MON. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR FLASH AND
POSSIBLE AREAL FLOODING MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE
REISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA BEGINNING 06Z MON.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET OR MAV GUIDANCE FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASED MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO MIXING AND CLOUDS THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD
WETBULB OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE ONSET OF HEAVY PRECIP. 32/EE

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH ON MONDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT RAIN EXPECTED ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY IN THE
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS OCCURS AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND ACQUIRES A NEGATIVE TILT OVER OK/TX. THE WARM FRONT
WILL START OFF THE DAY JUST OFFSHORE...MOVING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...BUT MAY HANG UP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AS IS NOW BEING DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY BEING CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE AREA WHERE THE GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AROUND 750 J/KG.
THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND SEVERE STORMS WILL START
BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH THE THREAT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 45 KT.
MEANWHILE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO THE S-SE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...PRODUCING 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2
WITH STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THEREFORE...ANY DISCRETE
CELLS THAT CAN FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATE TORNADO...ALTHOUGH ANY
SEVERE STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINATELY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCH. THE SQUALL LINE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING...LIKELY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT...AND JUST AS MUCH OF A CONCERN...IS THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.5-1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE LARGE HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED...COMBINED WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALMOST CERTAIN. WIDESPREAD STORM TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES
POSSIBLE. GIVEN OUR ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS
(MANY STREAMFLOWS AT THE GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE)...FLASH
FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS BECOMING A GREATER CONCERN.
THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMP FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH
WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF HWY 84 IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. COOLER TEMPS FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FROPA. 34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK...PHASING WITH
ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND EVOLVING INTO A BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS IN TURN ANCHORS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH WILL
BECOME REINFORCED AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA. SEASONABLE TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TREND TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THU-SAT AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THU-SAT WITH FREEZING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...WHICH WOULD
BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...PRODUCING BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY...WHEN
FREQUENT GUSTS OF AROUND 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCES)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23Z SUN
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MON. CIGS RANGING
FROM 3 TO 5 K FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 700 TO 1.5 K FT
OVERNIGHT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY
SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA
EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME MOSTLY EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND BUILD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND LOWER GULF BY MID WEEK. SEAS UP TO 11 FEET FROM
0 TO 60 NM OUT WILL BE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES
DUE TO A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NEARING GALE FORCE. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT RAINFALL FORECAST. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  57  71  48  64 /  40  80 100  80  05
PENSACOLA   67  57  71  52  66 /  40  90 100  90  05
DESTIN      66  58  68  56  64 /  30  90 100  90  05
EVERGREEN   70  52  67  49  64 /  20  90 100  90  05
WAYNESBORO  68  53  67  45  61 /  10  80 100  70  05
CAMDEN      68  49  64  47  61 /  05  90 100  90  05
CRESTVIEW   70  55  70  52  67 /  30  90 100  90  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...MONROE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...
     WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
612 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-251215-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
612 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY
SEVERE...WITH THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INLAND. THE GREATEST RISK AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST TIME WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS BEING MIDDAY
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. THE BEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL COME FROM ANY INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. BY MONDAY EVENING...A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-251215-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
612 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF WATERS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND WATERSPOUTS.

ONSHORE WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
INCREASE...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.