River Flood Warning 28, NWS Mobile, AL

120 
WGUS84 KMOB 211734
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1134 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
  BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND AFFECTING MOBILE COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC097-212300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130221T2300Z/
/SARA1.1.ER.130221T1700Z.130221T1700Z.130221T1700Z.NO/
1134 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON 
* AT 11AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4 FEET
* THE RIVER SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AT 4 FEET TODAY.
* AT 4 FEET, FLOODING OF STREETS BEGINS AND BECOMES WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE 
  RAILROAD WHEN THE LEVEL REACHES 5 FEET.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
410 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...AS A CLOSED LOW
MOVES AWAY FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IT GETS SHUNTED
NORTHEAST BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER. THIS WILL SHOVE A FRONT TOWARDS THE FA...MOVING IT TO OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME TSRA BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME...MAINLY OVER OUR MISS ZONES. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR OF HOW FAR WEST IS THE LIMITED TIME-FRAME OF
THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT. /16

[THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EAST FROM THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...KEEPING A
WARM MOIST RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
ACROSS OKLAHOMA LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY FORM SOUTH OF LOUISIANA BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY POTENT AND WILL HAVE A 125 TO 140 KNOT JET MAX
AT 300 MB EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO WEST VIRGINA BY NOON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE JET MAX AT 850 MB IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. WE
ALSO EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE
STRONGER INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED TO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 DEGREES. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 48 TO 57 DEGREES WEST OF I-65...AND 58
TO 63 DEGREES EAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FRONT OVER
THE GULF RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. MORE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE
PERIOD NEAR NORMAL BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION [20.18Z AND 21.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA...MAYBE TSRA...EXPECTED
TO MAKE THEIR APPEARANCE OVER WESTERN-MOST SECTIONS OF THE FA AROUND
THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. /16

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TODAY THEN BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY AND
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. /16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL MOMENTARILY ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND TWO MILES. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      42  68  63  73  57 /  00  40  90  90  90
PENSACOLA   45  66  64  70  61 /  00  20  90  90  90
DESTIN      49  66  63  69  63 /  00  10  60  80  80
EVERGREEN   37  68  61  73  58 /  00  20  90  90  90
WAYNESBORO  36  66  58  74  48 /  00  60  80  80  60
CAMDEN      35  67  60  73  52 /  00  40  80  90  70
CRESTVIEW   39  70  62  73  62 /  00  10  80  90  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
140 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-211200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
140 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD. SEE
APPROPRIATE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY. FORECASTERS WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
ON LATER FORECASTS. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE FLOODING
PROBLEMS ON MANY AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED
ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-211200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
140 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND ALSO
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.