Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2013
River Flood Warning 25, NWS Mobile, AL
NWS Mobile, AL issued this river flood warning at Feb 13, 2013, 9:12 AM CST for Okaloosa County, Florida. It took effect at Feb 13, 2013, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 13, 2013, 9:12 AM CST (15:12 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 13, 2013, 12:00 PM CST
- Expired
- Feb 14, 2013, 11:32 AM CST
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Mobile, AL
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Okaloosa County, FL
The radar
The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Shoal River near Crestview (CRVF1). The gauge peaked at 8.15 ft at Feb 13, 2013, 6:00 PM CST.
- Action stage
- 6 ft
- Minor stage
- 8 ft
- Moderate stage
- 12 ft
- Major stage
- 15 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02369000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
779 WGUS44 KMOB 131512 FLWMOB BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL 912 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...FLORIDA... TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN AFFECTING PERRY COUNTY. SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. ...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA... ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM AFFECTING CLARKE...MONROE AND WILCOX COUNTIES. .HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CREATED SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SAFETY MESSAGE... STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. && ALC025-099-131-141512- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CLBA1.2.ER.130212T1118Z.130215T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 912 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 8AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS...46.3 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 42 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 48 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ MSC111-141512- /O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0024.130216T1800Z-130218T0000Z/ /RNTM6.1.ER.130216T1800Z.130216T1800Z.130217T1800Z.UU/ 912 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN * FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING * AT 8AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS...19.8 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 21 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. * AT 21 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. $$ FLC091-141512- /O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0025.130213T1800Z-130216T1800Z/ /CRVF1.1.ER.130213T1800Z.130214T1800Z.130216T1200Z.NO/ 912 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW * FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON * AT 8AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS...7.8 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 8.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. $$
4 follow-up statements
919 WGUS84 KMOB 131557 FLSMOB FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA...FLORIDA... ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM AFFECTING DALLAS...MONROE AND WILCOX COUNTIES. TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN AFFECTING PERRY COUNTY. TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM AFFECTING CLARKE...MONROE AND WILCOX COUNTIES. ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. .RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SAFETY MESSAGE... STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. && ALC047-099-131-141556- /O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /MRFA1.1.ER.130212T0504Z.130214T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 75.1 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 66 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 77.3 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ ALC025-099-131-141555- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CLBA1.2.ER.130212T1118Z.130215T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 46.4 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 42 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 48 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ MSC039-041-111-141555- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /MCLM6.2.ER.130212T0713Z.130214T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.2 FEET * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ MSC039-041-153-141555- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LEKM6.2.ER.130212T0020Z.130214T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.2 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING. * AT 28 FEET, SOME FLOODING OF HOMES EAST OF THE RIVER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE LEVEL RISES ABOVE 28 FEET. $$ MSC039-041-059-141555- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0022.130213T2217Z-000000T0000Z/ /MRRM6.2.ER.130213T2217Z.130216T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL * FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.2 FEET * NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 25 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * AT 20.0 FEET, WATER COVERS MAIN ROAD AT PLUM BLUFF, IN SOUTHERN GEORGE COUNTY. $$ MSC111-141555- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0024.130216T1800Z-130218T0000Z/ /RNTM6.1.ER.130216T1800Z.130216T1800Z.130217T1800Z.UU/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN * FROM SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.8 FEET * NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 21 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. * AT 21 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. $$ ALC023-025-129-141555- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CLDA1.1.ER.130211T2214Z.130214T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 36.2 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 29 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 37 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ ALC023-025-129-141555- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LRYA1.1.ER.130212T1010Z.130215T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.3 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ ALC053-FLC033-141555- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CTYF1.1.ER.130213T1800Z.130215T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY * FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.4 FEET * NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.8 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * AT 17 FEET, CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF LOWLANDS WILL OCCUR. $$ FLC091-141555- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0025.130213T1800Z-130216T1800Z/ /CRVF1.1.ER.130213T1800Z.130214T1800Z.130216T1200Z.NO/ 956 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW * FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON * AT 9AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET * NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 8.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. * AT 8 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR. $$
138 WGUS84 KMOB 132123 FLSMOB FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA... MISSISSIPPI...FLORIDA... ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM AFFECTING DALLAS...MONROE AND WILCOX COUNTIES. PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN AFFECTING PERRY COUNTY. TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM AFFECTING CLARKE...MONROE AND WILCOX COUNTIES. ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. .RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THESE RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SAFETY MESSAGE... STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. && MSC039-041-111-142123- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /MCLM6.3.ER.130212T0713Z.130215T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING. * AT 28 FEET, WATER WILL BACK UP MCSWAIN BRANCH AND SOME RESIDENCES WILL BECOME FLOODED. $$ ALC047-099-131-142123- /O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130218T2343Z/ /MRFA1.1.ER.130212T0504Z.130215T0000Z.130218T1743Z.NO/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM * UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON * AT 2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 75.6 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 66 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 76.7 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE MONDAY MORNING. $$ ALC025-099-131-142123- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CLBA1.2.ER.130212T1118Z.130214T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 47.1 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 42.0 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 48.2 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ MSC039-041-153-142123- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LEKM6.2.ER.130212T0020Z.130215T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.9 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 29.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING. * AT 28 FEET, SOME FLOODING OF HOMES EAST OF THE RIVER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE LEVEL RISES ABOVE 28 FEET. $$ MSC039-041-059-142123- /O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0022.130213T2113Z-000000T0000Z/ /MRRM6.2.ER.130213T2102Z.130217T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL * FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.9 FEET * NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. * AT 23 FEET, STREETS AND PORTIONS OF THE OLD BUSINESS SECTION OF MERRILL WILL BECOME FLOODED. AT 24 FEET THE BRIDGE BECOMES INACESSIBLE BY AUTOMOBILE. $$ MSC111-142123- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0024.130216T1800Z-130218T0000Z/ /RNTM6.1.ER.130216T1800Z.130216T1800Z.130217T1800Z.UU/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN * FROM SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING * AT 2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.6 FEET * NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 21 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. * AT 21 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. $$ ALC023-025-129-142123- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CLDA1.1.ER.130211T2214Z.130214T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 36.4 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 29 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 37 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ ALC023-025-129-142123- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LRYA1.1.ER.130212T1010Z.130215T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 3PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.5 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ ALC053-FLC033-142123- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CTYF1.1.ER.130213T2156Z.130217T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY * FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.8 FEET * NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.7 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * AT 17 FEET, CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF LOWLANDS WILL OCCUR. $$ FLC091-142123- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130216T1800Z/ /CRVF1.1.ER.130213T1822Z.130214T1800Z.130216T1200Z.NO/ 323 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW * UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON * AT 2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING. * AT 8 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR. $$
770 WGUS84 KMOB 140249 FLSMOB FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL 849 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA... ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA AND ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA. .RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. SAFETY MESSAGE... STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. && ALC053-FLC033-150249- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CTYF1.1.ER.130213T2300Z.130217T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 849 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 8PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.1 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.1 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING. * AT 17 FEET, CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF LOWLANDS WILL OCCUR. $$ FLC091-150249- /O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130216T1200Z/ /CRVF1.1.ER.130213T1822Z.130214T1200Z.130216T0600Z.NO/ 849 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW * UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING * AT 8PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.4 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * AT 8 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR. $$
333 WGUS84 KMOB 141732 FLSMOB FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 ...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA...FLORIDA... TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN AFFECTING PERRY COUNTY. ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM AFFECTING DALLAS...MONROE AND WILCOX COUNTIES. ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. MOBILE RIVER AT BARRY STEAM PLANT AFFECTING BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES. TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM AFFECTING CLARKE...MONROE AND WILCOX COUNTIES. LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES. CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. .RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THESE RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SAFETY MESSAGE... STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. && MSC039-041-111-151732- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /MCLM6.3.ER.130212T0713Z.130216T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.1 FEET * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING. * AT 28 FEET, WATER WILL BACK UP MCSWAIN BRANCH AND SOME RESIDENCES WILL BECOME FLOODED. $$ ALC047-099-131-151731- /O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130219T0618Z/ /MRFA1.1.ER.130212T0504Z.130215T0600Z.130219T0018Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM * UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT * AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 76.4 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 66 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 76.7 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EVENING. $$ ALC025-099-131-151731- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CLBA1.2.ER.130212T1118Z.130215T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 11AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 49.2 FEET * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 42 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 50 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ MSC039-041-153-151731- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LEKM6.2.ER.130212T0020Z.130215T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.1 FEET * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 29.5 FEET BY THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING. * AT 28 FEET, SOME FLOODING OF HOMES EAST OF THE RIVER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE LEVEL RISES ABOVE 28 FEET. $$ MSC039-041-059-151731- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /MRRM6.2.ER.130213T2042Z.130216T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.5 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.4 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING. * AT 25 FEET, FLOODING OF SOME RESIDENCES IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE LEVEL RISES ABOVE 25 FEET. $$ ALC003-097-151731- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0026.130219T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ /BCKA1.1.ER.130219T1500Z.130219T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOBILE RIVER AT BARRY STEAM PLANT * FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET * NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 12.1 FEET BY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. $$ MSC111-151731- /O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0024.130216T1200Z-130219T0600Z/ /RNTM6.1.ER.130216T1200Z.130216T1200Z.130219T0000Z.UU/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TALLAHALA CREEK NEAR RUNNELSTOWN * FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT * AT 9AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.5 FEET * NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 21 FEET * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING. * AT 21 FEET, LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. $$ ALC023-025-129-151731- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CLDA1.1.ER.130211T2214Z.130214T1600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 37.1 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 29 FEET * THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL SLOWLY FALL. $$ ALC023-025-129-151731- /O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LRYA1.1.ER.130212T1010Z.130216T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * AT 11AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.8 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.2 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING. $$ ALC053-FLC033-151731- /O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130219T1500Z/ /CTYF1.1.ER.130213T2300Z.130216T1800Z.130219T0900Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY * UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING * AT 11AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.6 FEET * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.2 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING. * AT 17.5 FEET, SOME FLOODING OF LOWLANDS IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIVER LEVEL DROPS BELOW 13 FEET. $$ FLC091-141802- /O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130216T1200Z/ /CRVF1.1.ER.130213T1822Z.130214T0100Z.130214T0930Z.NO/ 1132 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW * UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING * AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET * FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET * AT 8 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 13, 4:45 AM CST, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 13, 4:45 AM CST, 4 hours 27 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE ON OFF
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH OVERALL POPS MUCH LOWER THAN
PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY (40 TO 50 PERCENT MAINLY
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON) WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND AERIAL FLOOD
WARNING HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A LIGHT TO (OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE TODAY) NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. FAIRLY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TODAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO THE LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. 12/DS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS...THE SHORTWAVE THAT THE CLOSED SYSTEM CAUSING THE CURRENT WX
OVER THE FA DE-EVOLVED TO MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
REGION...DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH AS IT DOES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE
IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVES OVER THE TX/LA GULF COAST SHIFTS
EAST...THEN WASHES OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING AS ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A RE-ENFORCING
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY(GFS AND NAM)
OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT(ECMWF). ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY
FROPA. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN TEMPS...WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS IN THE
ECMWF...ALONG WITH THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LEADING TO A
LARGER TEMP RANGE THAN THE NAM AND GFS.
FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR
THURSDAY...HAVEN'T DEVIATED EXCEPT TO TWEAK HERE AND THERE. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF...WITH EVEN
THE GFS AND NAM ADVERTISING A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH THE FROPA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE START TO COME INTO
PLAY. THE ECMWF JOINS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...SLOWING ITS EASTWARD SWING. BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE
SHARPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS JUST MADE IT EAST OF THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...WHILST THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH OF THE ECMWF PUSHES A
COOLER AIRMASS SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SE-ERN
CONUS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER NORTHERLY PUSH OVER THE EAST
COAST. THIS MEANS A COOLER SATURDAY IN THE ECMWF. WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A SOLUTION COOLER THAN THE GFS...HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF...WITH NUMBERS MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER TOUGH IN BOTH MODELS
SWINGS EAST OF THE FA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN BOTH MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THE COLDER
SOLUTION IN THE ECMWF CONTINUES...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES BACKING IT
UP. SO HAVE BUMPED THE NUMBERS DOWN TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES(WHICH ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS MOVES OFF...MORE SHORTWAFE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PATH AND SPEED...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER AND SLOWER TO DEVELOP SOUTHERLY SHORTWAVE. BOTH HAVE A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN TAKING IT
NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. THE GFS DOES IT QUICKER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT BOTH HAVE A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM S-CENTRAL TX
NE OVER THE ARKLATEX. THE ECMWF PLACES THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OK/MO/AR JUNCTURE. FOR THE FORECAST...THEN MEANS THAT THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GFS IS FARTHER
NORTH(ARKLATEX NE OVER THE TENN RIVE VALLEY TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY)
WHILST THE ECMWF IS PLACING IT MORE SOUTH...OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISS
RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THE FORECAST...THIS MEANS THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING
A COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE FA THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLES
ARE AGREEING WITH THE COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS THE
ECMWF...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR TEMPS. FOR
POPS...THEN ENSEMBLES SHOW A GREATLY VARIED SOLUTION...SO HAVE WENT
WITH A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IN THIS RESPECT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BOTH MODELS SWING
EAST...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS IN
THE ECMWF MEANS A STRONGER FROPA...WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
FA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A LESS SOUTHERLY EXTENT
IN THE FRONT...THOUGH BOTH HAVE THE FA CLEARED OUT OF ANY RAIN.
AGAIN...THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE THE SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS...SO LEANED TOWARDS THEM FOR THE FORECAST. HAVE WENT WITH
NEWER GFS BASED MOS FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS IT FITS THE QPF
FIELDS OF BOTH MODELS THE BEST. THIS IS ABOVE THE GFS OR ECMWF TEXT
BASED GUIDANCE...BUT FEEL THAT IT IS MORE APPLICABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE UPPER ENERGY DIVES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ORGANIZES INTO A CLOSED
LOW...REACHING THE THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
PERIOD IN BOTH MODELS...THOUGHT HE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A COOLER
SOLUTION IN THE TEMPS. HAVE BLENDED IN THAT RESPECT FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(1312Z TAF ISSUANCE)...LOW CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 900
FEET TO AROUND 1500 FEET (WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER CIGS)
RESULTING IN IFR/MVFR CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. HIGHER
CLOUDS ALOFT KEEPING FOG THREAT TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE REGION. ONLY A BRIEF SHRA POSSIBLE AT TERMINAL SITES THIS
MORNING. SFC WINDS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS...SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS TONIGHT. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ON OFF INTO
THE NORTH ATLANTIC THURSDAY. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE MARINE AREA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH 9 PM
TONIGHT FOR WINDS (PRIMARILY IN GUSTS) AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO
7 FEET. LIGHTER WINDS AND SMALLER SEAS LATE THIS WEEK...THEN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITH RESULTANT BUILDING
SEAS...OVER THE WEEKEND. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS FOR MID WEEK. A RE-
ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 60 39 62 40 67 / 50 10 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 64 43 62 43 67 / 50 10 00 00 05
DESTIN 65 46 61 45 65 / 50 20 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 60 38 62 35 66 / 40 10 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 57 35 61 36 66 / 20 10 00 00 10
CAMDEN 58 37 61 37 66 / 20 10 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 65 39 64 33 68 / 50 20 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...
&&
12/16Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 13, 6:47 AM CST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 647 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141300- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 647 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AREA RIVERS CONTINUE STEADY RISES WITH MANY RISING INTO AND REMAINING IN THE MINOR FLOODING CATEGORY THROUGH LATE WEEK. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-141300- NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND- PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 647 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2013Every river flood warning in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.