Hurricane Watch 1012, NWS Mobile, AL

283 
WTUS84 KMOB 031640
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN TO AFFECT OUR REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS STRENGTHENED WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 65 MPH. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...UPPER
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
THE BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND GULF
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM. 

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2N...LONGITUDE 87.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 580 MILES
SOUTH OF MOBILE AL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT
12 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AND THE
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. GENERALLY...THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF MOBILE BAY TO EXPERIENCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF INUNDATION...
WHILE 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST EAST OF MOBILE BAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES
MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF KAREN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT
YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY
OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN
TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE
LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 530 PM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. 

ALZ061>064-040045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
1140 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 58 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE FORECAST IS FOR 2 TO 4 FEET OF INUNDATION FROM MOBILE BAY
WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. 1 TO 3 FEET OF INUNDATION IS
FORECAST ALONG THE BALDWIN COUNTY BEACHES AND ADJOINING SOUNDS. 

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING
WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS AREA. 

$$

FLZ001>006-040045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
1140 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 57 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION ALONG THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA TO DESTIN. 

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SATURDAY EVENING TO
SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING
WINDS LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS AREA. 

$$

GMZ630>632-040045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
1140 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 58 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING. 
SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ633-040045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PERDIDO BAY-
1140 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
54 TO 58 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ634-040045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
1140 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
51 TO 56 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ635-040045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
1140 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
45 TO 50 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-040045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1140 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 3 TO
10 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 69 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING TO
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 13 TO 18 FEET BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

205 
WTUS84 KMOB 032305
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
605 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...UPPER
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
THE BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND GULF
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM. 

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3N...LONGITUDE 88.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 510 MILES SOUTH
OF MOBILE AL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AND THE
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. GENERALLY...THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF MOBILE BAY TO EXPERIENCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF INUNDATION...
WHILE 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST EAST OF MOBILE BAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST AND EAST OF
THE STORM CENTER. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF KAREN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT
FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. 

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 1130 PM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. 

ALZ061>064-040715-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
605 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
57 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MUCH DEPENDS
ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR 2 TO 4 FEET OF
INUNDATION FROM MOBILE BAY WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. 1 TO 3
FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST ALONG THE BALDWIN COUNTY BEACHES AND
ADJOINING SOUNDS.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING
WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA. 

$$

FLZ001>006-040715-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
605 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
55 PERCENT.THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MUCH DEPENDS
ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION
ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA TO
DESTIN.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
AT LEAST MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA.

$$

GMZ630>632-040715-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
605 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
57 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ633-040715-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PERDIDO BAY-
605 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
52 TO 56 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ634-040715-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
605 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
47 TO 53 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON 
SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ635-040715-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
605 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
40 TO 45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD
START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON 
SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-040715-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
605 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 7 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 66 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. 

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 13 TO 18 FEET SATURDAY.

$$

558 
WTUS84 KMOB 040432
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ON FRIDAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NO CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...UPPER
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE BAYS AND
SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND GULF WATERS FROM DESTIN
TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY AND THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE ALABAMA COAST ON SATURDAY. GENERALLY...THIS FORECASTS
IMPLIES LOCATIONS WEST OF MOBILE BAY TO EXPERIENCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF
INUNDATION FLOODING... WHILE 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST EAST OF
MOBILE BAY AND INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING STORM RELATED
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST PRIMARILY NEAR THE
COAST AND EAST OF THE STORM CENTER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
LATE SATURDAY. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE
TRACK. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ANYTIME AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS
APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT
FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. 

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 530 AM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

ALZ061>064-041245-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
1132 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
57 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MUCH DEPENDS
ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR 2 TO 4 FEET OF
INUNDATION FROM MOBILE BAY WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. 1 TO 3
FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST ALONG THE BALDWIN COUNTY BEACHES AND
ADJOINING SOUNDS.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING
WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA. 

$$

FLZ001>006-041245-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
1132 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
55 PERCENT.THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MUCH DEPENDS
ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION
ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA TO
DESTIN.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
AT LEAST MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA.

$$

GMZ630>632-041245-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
1132 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
57 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ633-041245-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PERDIDO BAY-
1132 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
52 TO 56 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ634-041245-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
1132 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
47 TO 53 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON 
SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ635-041245-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
1132 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
40 TO 45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD
START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS ON SATURDAY.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS ON 
SATURDAY.

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-041245-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1132 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 7 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 66 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. 

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 13 TO 18 FEET SATURDAY.

$$

090 
WTUS84 KMOB 041037
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASGAGOULA OUT 60NM. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...UPPER
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
THE BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND GULF
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM. 

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9N...LONGITUDE 89.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 410 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
GREAT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN KAREN'S TRACK AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KAREN
GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY
WITH ANOTHER GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL INUNDATION FROM
THE UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA- MISSISSIPPI BORDER. EAST OF MOBILE BAY 1 TO 3
FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED WITH A VERY SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS...TAPERING OFF TO 35 TO 45 MPH WELL INLAND
OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF KAREN'S CENTER. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS KAREN'S OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 1130 AM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. 

ALZ061>064-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL
INUNDATION FROM THE UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. DURING THE
HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE OBSERVED
WITH A SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY MODERATE TREE AND
POWERLINE DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO HIGH SURF
DUE TO POUNDING BREAKERS WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ001>006-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
EAST OF MOBILE BAY AND INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE 1 TO 3
FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST. DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE
HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE OBSERVED WITH A SLOW WATER RECESSION
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY MODERATE TREE AND
POWERLINE DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO HIGH SURF
DUE TO POUNDING BREAKERS WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION.

$$

GMZ630>632-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 56 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDURE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ633-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PERDIDO BAY-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
52 TO 55 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDURE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ634-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
48 TO 52 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDURE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ635-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
41 TO 46 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDURE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 60 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS KAREN MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WINDS DECREASE SOMEWHAT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS MAY
APPROACH THE 15 TO 20 FEET RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

$$

047 
WTUS84 KMOB 041642
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL POSSIBLE
BEFORE NEARING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR
WARNING LATER TODAY.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST WATERS AND BAYS FROM
DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...UPPER
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF THE
BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND GULF WATERS
FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6N...LONGITUDE 90.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 370 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN KAREN'S TRACK AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR KAREN HAS A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL INUNDATION FROM THE
UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. EAST OF MOBILE BAY 1 TO 3
FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED WITH A VERY SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS...TAPERING OFF TO 35 TO 45 MPH WELL INLAND
OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF KAREN'S CENTER. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS KAREN'S OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL
STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 6 PM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. 

ALZ061>064-050045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL INUNDATION FROM THE
UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. DURING THE HOURS
SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE OBSERVED WITH A
SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPOTTY MODERATE TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO HIGH SURF
DUE TO POUNDING BREAKERS WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ001>006-050045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE 1 TO 3 FEET OF INUNDATION IS
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY...THIS COULD
BE LOWER. DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS SHOULD BE OBSERVED WITH A SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. SPOTTY MODERATE TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO HIGH SURF
DUE TO POUNDING BREAKERS WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION.

$$

GMZ630>632-050045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ633-050045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PERDIDO BAY-
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
41 TO 44 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BAY WATERS BECOME
VERY ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ634-050045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
38 TO 42 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ635-050045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
36 TO 39 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY ROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-050045-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1142 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 52 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS KAREN MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WINDS DECREASE SOMEWHAT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS MAY
APPROACH THE 15 TO 20 FEET RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

$$

387 
WTUS84 KMOB 042047
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH TROPICAL STORM WATCH...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
UPPER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL
SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND
GULF WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM. 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 3 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9N...LONGITUDE 90.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL
STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA. 

ALZ061>064-050500-
/O.CAN.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.TR.A.1012.131004T2047Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
347 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

$$

FLZ001>006-050500-
/O.CAN.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.TR.A.1012.131004T2047Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
347 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

$$

GMZ630>632-050500-
/O.CAN.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.TR.A.1012.131004T2047Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
347 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

$$

GMZ633-050500-
/O.CAN.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.TR.A.1012.131004T2047Z-000000T0000Z/
PERDIDO BAY-
347 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

$$

GMZ634-050500-
/O.CAN.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.TR.A.1012.131004T2047Z-000000T0000Z/
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
347 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

$$

GMZ635-050500-
/O.CAN.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.TR.A.1012.131004T2047Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
347 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-050500-
/O.CAN.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.TR.A.1012.131004T2047Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
347 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...PATTERN SIMILAR TODAY AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND WEST
ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS 1.7-1.9 INCHES) STILL RESIDES
ALONG COASTAL NW FL/AL WEST INTO SE MS. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES 30-40% ACROSS THOSE AREAS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR
INLAND SW AL. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OFFSHORE AS GREATER THAN 2 INCH
PWATS BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THERE IS NO DISCERNABLE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND MLCAPES AVERAGE 750-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
TONIGHT. BLENDED MAV/MET FOR TEMPS WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY UPPER 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S FAR INLAND WITH LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY...WITHIN A NARROW
MID LEVEL WEAKNESS BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
A BIT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CLUSTERING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COAST/MISSISSIPPI SOUND. THE GFS STILL SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE RISK OF INITIAL IMPACTS => INCREASED
WINDS...BUILDING SEAS/SWELL/TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING AND SQUALLS DUE TO
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND/AL AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS PERIOD. STAY
TUNED.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD
VERY WELL BE DEALING WITH AN APPROACHING OR LAND FALLING TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH THE THREAT ZONE BEING ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE APPARENT STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN/SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN
SQUALLS/STRONG GUSTY WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK...ISOLATED...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS
SPIRALING IN ACROSS THE COAST.

AFTER LANDFALL...THE LOW MERGES WITH FRONT AND LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS EASING. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE DAILY HIGHS. THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR...WHEN LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER/MID
50S THEN. /10

&&

.AVIATION (03.12Z ISSUANCE)...DEVELOPING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IS GENERALLY VFR BASED AND PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AT THE FORECAST
TERMINALS...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY
MVFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IT
APPEARS THE SYSTEM COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY IF THE CURRENT ORGANIZING TRENDS CONTINUE. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...LIKELY MOVING ASHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ULTIMATE TRACK
AND INTENSITY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH TAFB...PREFER TO USE A BLEND
OF THE GFS/UKMET WHICH BRINGS THE LOW NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST SHOWS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A MORE
PREDOMINATE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY. IF A
FURTHER EAST TRACK VERIFIES...THEN MORE OF THE MARINE AREA WILL SEE
AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. CAPPED MAX WINDS AT 30
KT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS...BUT ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND BAYS. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE
BIGGER SWELL (SEAS 10 FEET PLUS OVER GULF ZONES) LIKELY APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
MOVES INLAND. A COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  87  74  80 /  40  30  30  20  60
PENSACOLA   86  72  87  74  82 /  30  30  30  30  60
DESTIN      85  73  86  74  82 /  30  30  30  40  60
EVERGREEN   88  65  88  69  83 /  10  10  20  20  50
WAYNESBORO  87  67  87  70  82 /  20  10  20  20  60
CAMDEN      87  64  88  68  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
CRESTVIEW   88  65  87  70  82 /  20  20  30  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
523 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
523 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WHILE THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...DETERIORATING
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF THE LOW TRACKS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKERS IN THE SURF
ZONE MAY RESULT IN MINOR BEACH EROSION. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENTERING THE SURF ZONE COULD BE
LIFE THREATENING.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL RAIN BANDS
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AREA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
GULF.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-041100-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
523 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF WATERS DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE GULF TODAY AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM...BUT THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A SHARPER INCREASE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AT THE VERY LEAST...WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE IN GUSTS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL STORM...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE.