Freeze Watch 3, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013

.AVIATION (12.06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE
WEAKENING TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
CLOUDS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
MID/LOW LEVELS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THUS THE STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL DICTATE THAT NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...15 TO 20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY WILL
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ATTM...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THE NECESSITY OF AN ADVSY AND ISSUE ACCORDINGLY. WITH LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S INTERIOR ZONES
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES...WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY FALL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. 12/DS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...DRIVING THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FA WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY....AND CALMS WED NIGHT.

FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR MOVING OVER
THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING
TEMPS TO OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE FA. AM ISSUING A FREEZE
WATCH FOR TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THOSE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. WITH GUIDANCE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE COLD PUSH...AM EXPECTING AROUND OF
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA BY SUNRISE WED MORN. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH AS A RESULT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. A FEW LOCALITIES OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FA COULD SEE TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. THE WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO SEE TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL OVER THE
FA...WITH MOST OF THE FA IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE DROPPING WINDS...BUT WITH GUIDANCE
ADVERTISING RISING LOW LEVEL (1000-850MB) THICKNESS VALUES (MAINLY
DUE TO WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE 2K-5K' LAYER...SOME
MODERATION AND TEMPS GENERALLY THE SAME AS TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEMPS AROUND TO BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY ON)...MORE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS PUSHES THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS EAST....AND
RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE FIRST PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF THE FA FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT A A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FROM OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONGER AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR SAT AND SUN
BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW JUSTIFICATION FOR THE
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE GULF
MARINE ZONES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM ALL OF THE MARINE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA AND
CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
OFFSHORE WIND INCREASE WILL OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT DATA STILL INDICATING SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 39 KNOTS (CAPPED). THESE FREQUENT GUSTS OF GALE FORCE
REQUIRED MAINTAINING THE GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING WITH EITHER TONIGHTS OR
TUESDAYS FCST PACKAGE. IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY...HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
COVERS BOTH OFFSHORE WATERS AND BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS UNTIL THE
ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR OFFSHORE
WATERS BUT DOES NOT COVER BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS. SEAS TO 12
FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE
TIME OF OCCURRENCE OF MAX WINDS AND JUST AFTERWARD. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL WEAKEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS FOR MID WEEK...THOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FA WEDNESDAY...AM EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH.

WITH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN...DAYTIME RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30% RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
WINDS EASING...AM NOT EXPECTING THE AL WIND CRITERIA OF 20MPH 20'
WINDS TO BE REACHED...THOUGH THE FL VALUES OF 15MPH 20' WILL BE
CLOSER. STILL AM EXPECTING THESE VALUES TO NOT TO BE REACHED. WITH FL
ERC VALUES IN THE LOW 30S ATTM...EVERYTHING IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF
BORDERLINE...SO AM NOT ISSUING AND RED FLAG PRODUCTS. THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS AND WED MORNING BEFORE THE LIGHTER WINDS SET IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  72  31  55  33 /  00  00  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   54  76  35  58  37 /  00  00  05  00  05
DESTIN      60  72  38  59  40 /  00  00  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   43  69  28  54  28 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  44  66  25  54  24 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  66  29  54  29 /  00  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  76  31  58  28 /  00  00  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...
     UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND
     SANTA ROSA...

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

12/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121215-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
700 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COLDEST LOWS THUS FAR THIS SEASON ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES PAST THE REGION TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES FREEZING OR BELOW ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO OPP ALABAMA....REACHING AS LOW AS THE MID AND
UPPER 20S IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-121215-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
700 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BRINGING STRONG
NORTH WINDS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.
THIS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS
OVER BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS...AND BRINGING SEAS OFFSHORE 9 TO 12
FEET. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERWAYS...AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.